1985 MLB Draft

Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →

Year	Pick	Rd	Team	Player	Pos	Age	B/T	Ht	Wt	Bonus	Bonus%	Scouting Dir	GM / POBO	Real	DVOS	Expected
1985	1	1.1	MIL	B.J. Surhoff	OF LF	21 COLL	L/R	6'1"	215	—	—	—	Harry Dalton	28.4	+3.0	25.3±4.2
1985	2	1.2	SFG	Will Clark	IF 1B	21 COLL	L/L	6'1"	190	—	—	Bob Fontaine Sr	Tom Haller	52.0	+30.4	21.5±4.0
1985	3	1.3	TEX	Bobby Witt	P P	21 COLL	R/R	6'2"	205	—	—	Sandy Johnson	Tom Grieve	27.7	+17.9	9.8±3.9
1985	4	1.4	CIN	Barry Larkin	IF SS	21 COLL	R/R	6'0"	185	—	—	Larry Doughty	Bill Bergesch	64.6	+43.0	21.5±4.1
1985	5	1.5	CHW	Kurt Brown	C C	18 HS	R/R	6'2"	200	—	—	—	Roland Hemond	0.0	-24.4	24.4±4.2
1985	6	1.6	PIT	Barry Bonds	OF LF	21 COLL	L/L	6'2"	240	—	—	Elmer Gray	Joe Brown	110.1	+86.6	23.5±4.1
1985	7	1.7	SEA	Mike Campbell	P P	21 COLL	R/R	6'3"	210	—	—	—	Hal Keller	0.2	-7.7	7.9±3.8
1985	8	1.8	WSN	Pete Incaviglia	OF LF	21 COLL	R/R	6'1"	230	—	—	—	Murray Cook	10.2	+1.7	8.5±3.9
1985	9	1.9	CLE	Michael Poehl	P P	21 COLL	R/R	—	—	—	—	—	Phil Seghi	0.0	-7.9	7.9±3.7
1985	10	1.10	LAD	Chris Gwynn	OF LF	21 COLL	L/L	6'0"	210	—	—	Ben Wade	Al Campanis	-0.7	-9.2	8.5±3.9
1985	11	1.11	OAK	Walt Weiss	IF SS	22 COLL	S/R	6'0"	175	—	—	Dick Bogard Jr	Sandy Alderson	14.8	+4.0	10.8±3.7
1985	12	1.12	HOU	Cameron Drew	OF LF	21 COLL	L/R	6'5"	230	—	—	Dan O'Brien Jr	Al Rosen	0.0	-4.3	4.4±3.8
1985	13	1.13	MIN	Jeff Bumgarner	P P	18 HS	R/R	6'6"	205	—	—	—	Howard Fox	0.0	-5.5	5.5±3.7
1985	14	1.14	ATL	Tommy Greene	P P	18 HS	R/R	6'5"	225	—	—	Paul Snyder Jr	John Mullen	9.2	+3.7	5.5±3.7
1985	15	1.15	ANA	Willie Fraser	P P	21 COLL	R/R	6'1"	206	—	—	—	Mike Port	0.4	-7.5	7.9±3.7
1985	16	1.16	PHI	Trey McCall	C C	18 HS	R/R	6'3"	205	—	—	Jack Pastore	Bill Giles	0.0	-3.6	3.6±3.9
1985	17	1.17	KCR	Brian McRae	OF CF	18 HS	S/R	6'0"	185	—	—	Art Stewart	John Schuerholz	13.4	+5.5	8.0±3.7
1985	18	1.18	STL	Joe Magrane	P P	21 COLL	R/L	6'6"	230	—	—	—	Joe McDonald	14.0	+8.6	5.5±3.7
1985	19	1.19	ANA	Mike Cook	P P	22 COLL	R/R	6'3"	200	—	—	—	Mike Port	-0.4	-5.9	5.5±3.7
1985	20	1.20	NYM	Gregg Jefferies	IF 1B	18 HS	S/R	5'10"	185	—	—	Joe McIlvaine	Frank Cashen	20.2	+17.4	2.8±3.7
1985	21	1.21	BOS	Dan Gabriele	P P	19 HS	L/R	6'2"	190	—	—	Eddie Kasko	Lou Gorman	0.0	-5.5	5.5±3.7
1985	22	1.22	CHC	Rafael Palmeiro	IF 1B	21 COLL	L/L	6'0"	215	—	—	Vedie Himsl	Dallas Green	58.6	+47.7	10.8±3.7
1985	23	1.23	SDP	Joey Cora	IF 2B	20 COLL	S/R	5'8"	150	—	—	—	Jack McKeon	3.8	-7.1	10.8±3.7
1985	24	1.24	CHC	Dave Masters	P P	21 COLL	R/R	6'9"	225	—	—	Vedie Himsl	Dallas Green	0.0	-5.5	5.5±3.7
1985	25	1.25	TOR	Greg David	C C	18 HS	R/R	6'1"	192	—	—	—	Pat Gillick	0.0	-3.6	3.6±3.9
1985	26	1.26	DET	Randy Nosek	P P	18 HS	R/R	6'4"	215	—	—	—	Bill Lajoie	-0.5	-3.2	2.7±3.7
1985	27	1.27	SEA	Bill McGuire	C C	21 COLL	R/R	6'3"	205	—	—	—	Hal Keller	-0.1	-2.1	2.0±3.8
1985	28	1.28	NYY	Anthony Balabon	P P	18 HS	·/R	—	—	—	—	—	Clyde King	0.0	-2.7	2.7±3.7

Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.