Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1985 | 1 | 1.1 | MIL | B.J. Surhoff | OF LF | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'1" | 215 | — | — | — | Harry Dalton | 28.4 | +3.0 | 25.3±4.2 |
| 1985 | 2 | 1.2 | SFG | Will Clark | IF 1B | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'1" | 190 | — | — | Bob Fontaine Sr | Tom Haller | 52.0 | +30.4 | 21.5±4.0 |
| 1985 | 3 | 1.3 | TEX | Bobby Witt | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 205 | — | — | Sandy Johnson | Tom Grieve | 27.7 | +17.9 | 9.8±3.9 |
| 1985 | 4 | 1.4 | CIN | Barry Larkin | IF SS | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 185 | — | — | Larry Doughty | Bill Bergesch | 64.6 | +43.0 | 21.5±4.1 |
| 1985 | 5 | 1.5 | CHW | Kurt Brown | C C | 18 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 200 | — | — | — | Roland Hemond | 0.0 | -24.4 | 24.4±4.2 |
| 1985 | 6 | 1.6 | PIT | Barry Bonds | OF LF | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'2" | 240 | — | — | Elmer Gray | Joe Brown | 110.1 | +86.6 | 23.5±4.1 |
| 1985 | 7 | 1.7 | SEA | Mike Campbell | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 210 | — | — | — | Hal Keller | 0.2 | -7.7 | 7.9±3.8 |
| 1985 | 8 | 1.8 | WSN | Pete Incaviglia | OF LF | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 230 | — | — | — | Murray Cook | 10.2 | +1.7 | 8.5±3.9 |
| 1985 | 9 | 1.9 | CLE | Michael Poehl | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | — | — | — | — | — | Phil Seghi | 0.0 | -7.9 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 1985 | 10 | 1.10 | LAD | Chris Gwynn | OF LF | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'0" | 210 | — | — | Ben Wade | Al Campanis | -0.7 | -9.2 | 8.5±3.9 |
| 1985 | 11 | 1.11 | OAK | Walt Weiss | IF SS | 22 COLL | S/R | 6'0" | 175 | — | — | Dick Bogard Jr | Sandy Alderson | 14.8 | +4.0 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 1985 | 12 | 1.12 | HOU | Cameron Drew | OF LF | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'5" | 230 | — | — | Dan O'Brien Jr | Al Rosen | 0.0 | -4.3 | 4.4±3.8 |
| 1985 | 13 | 1.13 | MIN | Jeff Bumgarner | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'6" | 205 | — | — | — | Howard Fox | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1985 | 14 | 1.14 | ATL | Tommy Greene | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'5" | 225 | — | — | Paul Snyder Jr | John Mullen | 9.2 | +3.7 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1985 | 15 | 1.15 | ANA | Willie Fraser | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 206 | — | — | — | Mike Port | 0.4 | -7.5 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 1985 | 16 | 1.16 | PHI | Trey McCall | C C | 18 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 205 | — | — | Jack Pastore | Bill Giles | 0.0 | -3.6 | 3.6±3.9 |
| 1985 | 17 | 1.17 | KCR | Brian McRae | OF CF | 18 HS | S/R | 6'0" | 185 | — | — | Art Stewart | John Schuerholz | 13.4 | +5.5 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1985 | 18 | 1.18 | STL | Joe Magrane | P P | 21 COLL | R/L | 6'6" | 230 | — | — | — | Joe McDonald | 14.0 | +8.6 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1985 | 19 | 1.19 | ANA | Mike Cook | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 200 | — | — | — | Mike Port | -0.4 | -5.9 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1985 | 20 | 1.20 | NYM | Gregg Jefferies | IF 1B | 18 HS | S/R | 5'10" | 185 | — | — | Joe McIlvaine | Frank Cashen | 20.2 | +17.4 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 1985 | 21 | 1.21 | BOS | Dan Gabriele | P P | 19 HS | L/R | 6'2" | 190 | — | — | Eddie Kasko | Lou Gorman | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1985 | 22 | 1.22 | CHC | Rafael Palmeiro | IF 1B | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'0" | 215 | — | — | Vedie Himsl | Dallas Green | 58.6 | +47.7 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 1985 | 23 | 1.23 | SDP | Joey Cora | IF 2B | 20 COLL | S/R | 5'8" | 150 | — | — | — | Jack McKeon | 3.8 | -7.1 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 1985 | 24 | 1.24 | CHC | Dave Masters | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'9" | 225 | — | — | Vedie Himsl | Dallas Green | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1985 | 25 | 1.25 | TOR | Greg David | C C | 18 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 192 | — | — | — | Pat Gillick | 0.0 | -3.6 | 3.6±3.9 |
| 1985 | 26 | 1.26 | DET | Randy Nosek | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'4" | 215 | — | — | — | Bill Lajoie | -0.5 | -3.2 | 2.7±3.7 |
| 1985 | 27 | 1.27 | SEA | Bill McGuire | C C | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 205 | — | — | — | Hal Keller | -0.1 | -2.1 | 2.0±3.8 |
| 1985 | 28 | 1.28 | NYY | Anthony Balabon | P P | 18 HS | ·/R | — | — | — | — | — | Clyde King | 0.0 | -2.7 | 2.7±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.