Rosternomics

Metric Resources

How each front-office metric is built — the model, the formula, a graph, and a worked example you can follow by hand.

WAB — Wins Above Budget →

How many games a team won above what its payroll predicted — a resource-controlled, era-neutral scorecard for front-office performance.

TAB — Talent Above Budget →

How much roster talent a team assembled above what its payroll predicted — the roster-construction half of front-office skill.

Acquisition Leverage →

For each win of FA/trade talent acquired, the playoff-probability points it added — given the roster it joined. Did a GM buy wins where they actually matter?

Surplus $M — Dollar Value Above Cost →

The market dollar value of a player's production minus what he was actually paid — how much free money a front office extracted from its roster.

WAR Surplus — Era-Neutral Value →

The same surplus idea, expressed in wins instead of dollars — so a 1990 bargain and a 2025 bargain are directly comparable.

DVOS — Draft Value Over Slot →

The scouting-director analog of WAB: how much fWAR a director's picks produced above what their draft slots historically return. Plus the surprising structure of where draft skill is — and isn't — real.

Grading Trades — and why nobody can pick winners →

Our trade grades are calibrated and unbiased — and they still can't tell you who will win a trade, because trades are an efficient market and ~92% of the outcome is unforeseeable at the time.