Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1988 | 1 | 1.1 | SDP | Andy Benes | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'6" | 245 | — | — | — | Jack McKeon | 37.0 | +17.4 | 19.6±3.8 |
| 1988 | 2 | 1.2 | CLE | Mark Lewis | IF 2B | 19 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 190 | — | — | Jeff Scott | Hank Peters | -2.8 | -21.7 | 18.9±4.1 |
| 1988 | 3 | 1.3 | ATL | Steve Avery | P P | 18 HS | L/L | 6'4" | 205 | — | — | Paul Snyder Jr | Bobby Cox | 20.7 | +10.7 | 9.9±4.1 |
| 1988 | 4 | 1.4 | BAL | Gregg Olson | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 210 | — | — | Fred Uhlman Sr | Roland Hemond | 10.0 | +0.2 | 9.8±3.8 |
| 1988 | 5 | 1.5 | LAD | William Bene | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 200 | — | — | Ben Wade | Fred Claire | 0.0 | -8.5 | 8.5±3.9 |
| 1988 | 6 | 1.6 | TEX | Monty Fariss | OF LF | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 180 | — | — | Sandy Johnson | Tom Grieve | -0.4 | -23.9 | 23.5±4.1 |
| 1988 | 7 | 1.7 | HOU | Willie Ansley | OF OF | 19 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 196 | — | — | Dan O'Brien Jr | Bill Wood | 0.0 | -8.0 | 8.0±3.9 |
| 1988 | 8 | 1.8 | ANA | Jim Abbott | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'3" | 210 | — | — | — | Mike Port | 22.5 | +14.6 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 1988 | 9 | 1.9 | CHC | Ty Griffin | IF 2B | 21 COLL | S/R | 6'0" | 185 | — | — | — | Jim Frey | 0.0 | -14.8 | 14.8±3.8 |
| 1988 | 10 | 1.10 | CHW | Robin Ventura | IF 3B | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'1" | 200 | — | — | — | Larry Himes | 56.2 | +41.4 | 14.8±3.8 |
| 1988 | 11 | 1.11 | PHI | Pat Combs | P P | 22 COLL | L/L | 6'3" | 200 | — | — | Jack Pastore | Woody Woodward | 3.4 | -4.5 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 1988 | 12 | 1.12 | BOS | Tom Fischer | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 5'11" | 190 | — | — | Eddie Kasko | Lou Gorman | 0.0 | -7.9 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 1988 | 13 | 1.13 | PIT | Austin Manahan | IF 3B | 18 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 185 | — | — | Cam Bonifay | Larry Doughty | 0.0 | -7.8 | 7.8±3.8 |
| 1988 | 14 | 1.14 | SEA | Tino Martinez | IF 1B | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'2" | 230 | — | — | Roger Jongewaard | Dick Balderson | 26.8 | +16.0 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 1988 | 15 | 1.15 | SFG | Royce Clayton | IF SS | 18 HS | R/R | 6'0" | 200 | — | — | Bob Fontaine Sr | Al Rosen | 17.0 | +9.2 | 7.8±3.8 |
| 1988 | 16 | 1.16 | OAK | Stan Royer | IF 3B | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 195 | — | — | Dick Bogard Jr | Sandy Alderson | -0.3 | -11.1 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 1988 | 17 | 1.17 | CLE | Charles Nagy | P P | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'3" | 200 | — | — | Jeff Scott | Hank Peters | 30.8 | +25.4 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1988 | 18 | 1.18 | KCR | Hugh Walker | OF OF | 18 HS | L/R | 5'11" | 209 | — | — | Art Stewart | John Schuerholz | 0.0 | -8.0 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1988 | 19 | 1.19 | WSN | David Wainhouse | P P | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'2" | 190 | — | — | Gary Hughes | Bill Stoneman | -1.0 | -6.4 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1988 | 20 | 1.20 | MIN | Johnny Ard | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 200 | — | — | Terry Ryan | Andy MacPhail | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1988 | 21 | 1.21 | NYM | David Proctor | P P | 20 COLL | L/R | 6'3" | 195 | — | — | Roland Johnson | Frank Cashen | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1988 | 22 | 1.22 | STL | John Ericks | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'7" | 220 | — | — | — | Dal Maxvill | 1.0 | -4.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1988 | 23 | 1.23 | STL | Brad Duvall | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 180 | — | — | — | Dal Maxvill | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1988 | 24 | 1.24 | MIL | ✕ Alex Fernandez | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 235 | — | — | Dick Foster | Harry Dalton | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1988 | 25 | 1.25 | TOR | Ed Sprague Jr. | IF 3B | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 205 | — | — | — | Pat Gillick | 4.6 | -6.3 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 1988 | 26 | 1.26 | DET | Rico Brogna | IF 1B | 18 HS | L/L | 6'2" | 205 | — | — | Jax Robertson | Bill Lajoie | 1.9 | -0.9 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 1988 | 27 | 1.27 | CLE | Jeff Mutis | P P | 22 COLL | L/L | 6'2" | 185 | — | — | Jeff Scott | Hank Peters | -1.0 | -4.0 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 1988 | 28 | 1.28 | SFG | Ted Wood | OF OF | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'2" | 178 | — | — | Bob Fontaine Sr | Al Rosen | -0.9 | -4.8 | 3.8±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.