Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1989 | 1 | 1.1 | BAL | Ben McDonald | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'7" | 213 | — | — | John Barr | Roland Hemond | 20.5 | +0.8 | 19.6±3.8 |
| 1989 | 2 | 1.2 | ATL | Tyler Houston | IF 3B | 18 HS | L/R | 6'1" | 220 | — | — | Paul Snyder Jr | Bobby Cox | 1.5 | -17.4 | 18.9±4.1 |
| 1989 | 3 | 1.3 | SEA | Roger Salkeld | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'5" | 215 | — | — | Roger Jongewaard | Woody Woodward | 0.5 | -9.5 | 9.9±4.1 |
| 1989 | 4 | 1.4 | PHI | Jeffrey Jackson | OF OF | 17 HS | R/R | — | — | — | — | Jay Hankins | Lee Thomas | 0.0 | -14.3 | 14.3±3.7 |
| 1989 | 5 | 1.5 | TEX | Donald Harris | OF CF | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 185 | — | — | Sandy Johnson | Tom Grieve | -1.5 | -25.0 | 23.5±4.1 |
| 1989 | 6 | 1.6 | STL | Paul Coleman | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 5'11" | 200 | — | — | — | Dal Maxvill | 0.0 | -9.9 | 9.9±3.8 |
| 1989 | 7 | 1.7 | CHW | Frank Thomas | DH DH | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 275 | — | — | — | Larry Himes | 67.7 | +36.0 | 31.7±3.7 |
| 1989 | 8 | 1.8 | CHC | Earl Cunningham | OF OF | 19 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 25 | — | — | Dick Balderson | Jim Frey | 0.0 | -8.0 | 8.0±3.8 |
| 1989 | 9 | 1.9 | ANA | Kyle Abbott | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'4" | 200 | — | — | Bob Fontaine Jr | Mike Port | -0.5 | -8.4 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 1989 | 10 | 1.10 | WSN | ✕ Charles Johnson | C C | 18 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 225 | — | — | Gary Hughes | Dave Dombrowski | 0.0 | -7.7 | 7.7±4.2 |
| 1989 | 11 | 1.11 | CLE | ✕ Calvin Murray | OF CF | 18 HS | R/R | 5'11" | 190 | — | — | — | Hank Peters | 0.0 | -8.0 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1989 | 12 | 1.12 | HOU | Jeff Juden | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'8" | 265 | — | — | Dan O'Brien Jr | Bill Wood | 2.0 | -3.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1989 | 13 | 1.13 | KCR | Brent Mayne | C C | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'1" | 190 | — | — | Art Stewart | John Schuerholz | 5.1 | -11.9 | 17.0±4.1 |
| 1989 | 14 | 1.14 | SFG | Steve Hosey | OF RF | 20 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 215 | — | — | — | Al Rosen | -0.4 | -4.8 | 4.4±3.8 |
| 1989 | 15 | 1.15 | LAD | Kiki Jones | C C | 19 HS | R/R | 5'11" | 170 | — | — | Ben Wade | Fred Claire | 0.0 | -3.6 | 3.6±4.1 |
| 1989 | 16 | 1.16 | BOS | Greg Blosser | OF LF | 18 HS | L/L | 6'3" | 200 | — | — | Eddie Kasko | Lou Gorman | -0.4 | -8.4 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1989 | 17 | 1.17 | MIL | Cal Eldred | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 240 | — | — | Dick Foster | Harry Dalton | 12.2 | +6.7 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1989 | 18 | 1.18 | PIT | Willie Greene | IF 3B | 18 HS | L/R | 5'11" | 180 | — | — | Cam Bonifay | Larry Doughty | 4.4 | +1.7 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 1989 | 19 | 1.19 | TOR | Eddie Zosky | IF SS | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 175 | — | — | — | Pat Gillick | -0.7 | -11.5 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 1989 | 20 | 1.20 | CIN | Scott Bryant | OF OF | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 215 | — | — | John Cox | Murray Cook | 0.0 | -4.4 | 4.4±3.7 |
| 1989 | 21 | 1.21 | DET | Greg Gohr | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 205 | — | — | Jax Robertson | Bill Lajoie | 0.5 | -5.0 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1989 | 22 | 1.22 | LAD | Tom Goodwin | OF CF | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'0" | 195 | — | — | Ben Wade | Fred Claire | 3.9 | -0.5 | 4.4±3.7 |
| 1989 | 23 | 1.23 | BOS | Mo Vaughn | IF 1B | 22 COLL | L/R | 6'1" | 275 | — | — | Eddie Kasko | Lou Gorman | 31.1 | +20.3 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 1989 | 24 | 1.24 | NYM | Alan Zinter | IF 1B | 21 COLL | S/R | 6'2" | 195 | — | — | Roland Johnson | Frank Cashen | -0.5 | -11.4 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 1989 | 25 | 1.25 | MIN | Chuck Knoblauch | IF 2B | 21 COLL | R/R | 5'9" | 170 | — | — | Terry Ryan | Andy MacPhail | 39.8 | +28.9 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 1989 | 26 | 1.26 | SEA | ✕ Scott Burrell | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'6" | 190 | — | — | Roger Jongewaard | Woody Woodward | 0.0 | -2.7 | 2.7±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.