RRosternomics
𝕏

Blue Jays TOR

‹ ›

GM: Pat Gillick

Overview

CONTEND ↘ cooling
expensive & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.12× league · TAB +8.6
+8.6TAB — talent above budget2nd/26
+5.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)8th/26
11.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars1st/26
-3.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag13th/26
19%dead money %8th/26
0.549win %6th/26
44.2roster fWAR3rd/26
+1surplus $M (value vs cost)8th/26
$15Mpayroll $M11th/26

1989: made playoffs · 89–73. Ranks are vs the 26 teams that season.

Roster

CFLloyd Moseby 120GMookie Wilson 66GJunior Félix 24G
LFGeorge Bell 134GMookie Wilson 29GRob Ducey 16G
RFJunior Félix 86GMookie Wilson 45GRob Ducey 18G
SSTony Fernández 140GManuel Lee 28GAlexis Infante 9G
2BNelson Liriano 122GManuel Lee 40GTom Lawless 7G
3BKelly Gruber 119GRance Mulliniks 29GManuel Lee 17G
1BFred McGriff 159GLee Mazzilli 10GJohn Olerud 5G
STARTERSJimmy Key 4.6WARDave Stieb 2.7WARMike Flanagan 2.2WARJohn Cerutti 1.9WARTodd Stottlemyre 1.2WAR
CErnie Whitt 116GPat Borders 67GGreg Myers 10G
DHRance Mulliniks 56GGeorge Bell 19GBob Brenly 17G
BULLPEN★ Tom Henke 20svJim Acker 0hDuane Ward 0hDavid Wells 0hFrank Wills 0hMauro Gozzo 0hXavier Hernandez 0hDeWayne Buice 0h
CErnie Whitt 116 · Pat Borders 67 · Greg Myers 10
1BFred McGriff 159 · Lee Mazzilli 10 · John Olerud 5
2BNelson Liriano 122 · Manuel Lee 40 · Tom Lawless 7
3BKelly Gruber 119 · Rance Mulliniks 29 · Manuel Lee 17
SSTony Fernández 140 · Manuel Lee 28 · Alexis Infante 9
LFGeorge Bell 134 · Mookie Wilson 29 · Rob Ducey 16
CFLloyd Moseby 120 · Mookie Wilson 66 · Junior Félix 24
RFJunior Félix 86 · Mookie Wilson 45 · Rob Ducey 18
DHRance Mulliniks 56 · George Bell 19 · Bob Brenly 17
SPJimmy Key 4.6 · Dave Stieb 2.7 · Mike Flanagan 2.2 · John Cerutti 1.9 · Todd Stottlemyre 1.2
BP★ Tom Henke 20 · Jim Acker 0 · Duane Ward 0 · David Wells 0 · Frank Wills 0 · Mauro Gozzo 0 · Xavier Hernandez 0 · DeWayne Buice 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1989 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Fred McGriff 25 arb 1616.4 0.3 +2.0
Jimmy Key 28 arb 334.6 1.8 -0.1
Kelly Gruber 27 arb 1353.9 0.5 +1.0
Tony Fernandez 27 FA-elig 1403.6 1.4 -0.1
Tom Henke 31 FA-elig 643.5 1.0 +0.3
Ernie Whitt 37 FA-elig 1292.9 0.8 +0.3
Duane Ward 25 arb 662.7 0.2 +0.8
Dave Stieb 31 FA-elig 332.7 1.5 -0.5
George Bell 29 FA-elig 1532.6 1.9 -1.0
Nelson Liriano 25 pre-arb 1322.4 0.1 +0.7
Mike Flanagan 37 FA-elig 302.2 0.9 -0.1
John Cerutti 29 arb 331.9 0.4 +0.3
David Wells 26 pre-arb 541.8 0.1 +0.5
Junior Felix 21 pre-arb 1101.3 0.1 +0.4
Todd Stottlemyre 24 pre-arb 271.2 0.1 +0.3
Frank Wills 30 – 240.6 – –
Lloyd Moseby 29 FA-elig 1350.5 1.4 -1.2
Jim Acker↔ ATL 30 FA-elig 140.5 0.1 +0.0
Mauro Gozzo 23 pre-arb 90.4 0.1 +0.1
Lee Mazzilli↔ NYM 34 FA-elig 280.4 0.1 +0.0
Jose Antonio Nunez 25 pre-arb 60.4 0.2 -0.0
Pat Borders 26 pre-arb 940.3 0.1 -0.0
Jesse Barfield↔ NYY 29 FA-elig 210.2 0.2 -0.1
Manuel Lee 24 arb 990.2 0.2 -0.1
Tony Castillo↔ ATL 26 pre-arb 170.2 0.0 +0.0
Steve Cummings 24 – 50.2 – –
Ozzie Virgil Jr. 32 – 90.1 – –
Rance Mulliniks 33 FA-elig 1030.1 0.7 -0.6
Al Leiter↔ NYY 23 pre-arb 10.0 0.0 -0.0
John Olerud 20 – 60.0 – –
Kevin Batiste 22 – 6-0.0 – –
Glenallen Hill 24 – 19-0.1 – –
Francisco Cabrera↔ ATL 22 – 3-0.1 – –
Xavier Hernandez 23 – 7-0.1 – –
Alexis Infante 27 – 20-0.1 – –
Rob Ducey 24 pre-arb 41-0.2 0.1 -0.1
Jeff Musselman↔ NYM 26 arb 5-0.2 0.0 -0.1
DeWayne Buice 31 – 7-0.2 – –
Alex Sanchez 23 – 4-0.2 – –
Mookie Wilson↔ NYM 33 FA-elig 54-0.3 0.4 -0.5
Greg Myers 23 – 17-0.6 – –
Bob Brenly↔ SFG 35 FA-elig 48-0.7 0.5 -0.8
Tom Lawless 32 FA-elig 59-1.1 0.2 -0.6

Key additions (new vs 1988)

PlayerfWAR
Junior Felix1.3
Jim Acker0.5
Mauro Gozzo0.4
Lee Mazzilli0.4
Steve Cummings0.2
Ozzie Virgil Jr.0.1

Key subtractions (gone from 1988)

Player1988 fWAR
Jim Clancy1.8
Rick Leach0.3
Juan Beniquez0.1
Mark Eichhorn0.0
Sal Butera0.0
Mark Ross0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

1989 payroll
$15.2M

What the front office was committed to as of 1989, 1989–1995. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (16)

PlayerAgeSvc1989199019911992199319941995
George Bell298.000$1.9M$2.0MFREE AGENT
Dave Stieb3110.000$1.5M$2.8M$3.0M$3.2MFREE AGENT
Tony Fernandez276.000$1.4M$1.5MFREE AGENT$1.5M
Lloyd Moseby299.000$1.4MFREE AGENT
Tom Henke317.000$975k$1.2MFREE AGENT$3.4M
Mike Flanagan3714.000$888k$1.0MFREE AGENT
Ernie Whitt3713.000$800kFREE AGENT
Rance Mulliniks3312.000$650k$520k$725k$775kFREE AGENT
Bob Brenly358.000$544kFREE AGENT
Mookie Wilson339.000$403k$1.1M$1.6MFREE AGENT
Jesse Barfield298.000$182kFREE AGENT
Tom Lawless327.000$175k$250kFREE AGENT
Jim Acker306.000$132k$700kFREE AGENT
Lee Mazzilli3413.000$129kFREE AGENT
Ozzie Virgil Jr.329.000—$275kFREE AGENT
Frank Wills306.000—$242k$435kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (7)

PlayerAgeSvc1989199019911992199319941995
Jimmy Key285.000$1.8MFREE AGENT
Kelly Gruber275.000$462kFREE AGENT
John Cerutti294.000$417kARB 3FREE AGENT
Fred McGriff253.000$300kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Duane Ward253.000$168kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Manuel Lee244.000$160kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Musselman263.000$40kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (20)

PlayerAgeSvc1989199019911992199319941995
Jose Antonio Nunez252.000$175kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nelson Liriano252.000$112kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Wells262.000$107kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pat Borders261.000$101kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Todd Stottlemyre241.000$85kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rob Ducey242.000$84kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Junior Felix210.000$68kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mauro Gozzo230.000$68kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Castillo261.000$42kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Al Leiter232.000$16kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Batiste22–—
DeWayne Buice312.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Francisco Cabrera220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Cummings240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Xavier Hernandez230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Glenallen Hill240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alexis Infante272.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Greg Myers232.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Olerud200.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Sanchez23–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Blue Jays 1989; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

'; return; } const f=+document.getElementById('yfrom').value, t=+document.getElementById('yto').value, w=+document.getElementById('win').value; document.getElementById('yflab').textContent=f; document.getElementById('ytlab').textContent=t; document.getElementById('winlab').textContent = w===1?'raw':(w+'-yr'); const dark=document.documentElement.getAttribute('data-theme')==='dark'; const ink=dark?'#cdd4dc':'#1d2630', grid=dark?'#2c313a':'#d6dbe2', refc=dark?'#5a636d':'#9aa3ad', dirc=dark?'#ffffff':'#1d2630'; const col=contrastColor(TEAMCOL,dark); function sm(a,w){const h=(w-1)/2,o=[];for(let i=0;id[0]>=f&&d[0]<=t); if(raw.length<2){ Plotly.purge('orbit'); orbEl.innerHTML='

Pick a wider year range.

'; return; } const s=sm(raw,w),n=s.length,X=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[1]*100)/100),Y=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[2]*10)/10),yr=s.map(d=>d[0]); let xa=Math.min(1,...X),xb=Math.max(1,...X),ya=Math.min(0,...Y),yb=Math.max(0,...Y); const px=(xb-xa)*.12+.04,py=(yb-ya)*.12+1.5;xa-=px;xb+=px;ya-=py;yb+=py; const k=Math.max(0,n-3), ann=[]; [['WINDOW','#15b6a0',xa<1&&yb>0,xa,yb,'left','top'],['CONTEND','#2f7ed8',xb>1&&yb>0,xb,yb,'right','top'], ['FORCED-SPEND','#ec5a3c',xb>1&&ya<0,xb,ya,'right','bottom'],['REBUILD','#f0a91c',xa<1&&ya<0,xa,ya,'left','bottom']].forEach(q=>{ if(q[2]) ann.push({x:q[3],y:q[4],xref:'x',yref:'y',text:q[0],showarrow:false,xanchor:q[5],yanchor:q[6],font:{size:10,color:q[1]},opacity:.85});}); ann.push({x:X[n-1],y:Y[n-1],ax:X[n-1]-0.5*(X[n-1]-X[k]),ay:Y[n-1]-0.5*(Y[n-1]-Y[k]),xref:'x',yref:'y',axref:'x',ayref:'y',showarrow:true,arrowhead:2,arrowsize:1.3,arrowwidth:1.7,arrowcolor:dirc,text:''}); Plotly.newPlot('orbit',[{x:X,y:Y,mode:'lines+markers',line:{color:col,width:2.6,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.7}, marker:{color:col,size:s.map((d,i)=>5+7*(i/Math.max(1,n-1))),line:{color:dark?'#1b1e23':'#fff',width:0.6}}, text:yr,hovertemplate:'%{text}
payroll %{x:.2f}× lg · TAB %{y:+.1f}
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'TOR',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});