Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 1 | 1.1 | ATL | Chipper Jones | IF 3B | 18 HS | S/R | 6'4" | 210 | — | — | Paul Snyder Jr | Bobby Cox | 57.5 | +7.6 | 49.9±4.0 |
| 1990 | 2 | 1.2 | DET | Tony Clark | IF 1B | 18 HS | S/R | 6'7" | 245 | — | — | Jax Robertson | Bill Lajoie | 13.3 | -5.6 | 18.9±4.1 |
| 1990 | 3 | 1.3 | PHI | Mike Lieberthal | C C | 18 HS | R/R | 6'0" | 195 | — | — | Jay Hankins | Lee Thomas | 18.9 | -5.5 | 24.4±3.7 |
| 1990 | 4 | 1.4 | CHW | Alex Fernandez | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 235 | — | — | — | Larry Himes | 29.4 | +19.6 | 9.8±3.8 |
| 1990 | 5 | 1.5 | PIT | Kurt Miller | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'5" | 205 | — | — | Cam Bonifay | Larry Doughty | -0.5 | -10.4 | 9.9±3.9 |
| 1990 | 6 | 1.6 | SEA | Marc Newfield | OF LF | 18 HS | R/R | 6'4" | 205 | — | — | — | Woody Woodward | -1.8 | -9.8 | 8.0±3.9 |
| 1990 | 7 | 1.7 | CIN | Dan Wilson | C C | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 215 | — | — | Julian Mock | Bob Quinn | 14.3 | -2.7 | 17.0±3.7 |
| 1990 | 8 | 1.8 | CLE | ✕ Timothy Costic | OF LF | 19 HS | L/L | 6'2" | 185 | — | — | Chet Montgomery | Hank Peters | 0.0 | -8.0 | 8.0±3.8 |
| 1990 | 9 | 1.9 | LAD | Ronnie Walden | P P | 18 HS | L/L | 6'2" | 170 | — | — | Ben Wade | Fred Claire | 0.0 | -5.8 | 5.8±3.8 |
| 1990 | 10 | 1.10 | NYY | Carl Everett | OF CF | 19 HS | S/R | 6'0" | 220 | — | — | Brian Sabean | Hardy Peterson | 18.3 | +10.3 | 8.0±3.8 |
| 1990 | 11 | 1.11 | WSN | Shane Andrews | IF 3B | 19 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 220 | — | — | Gary Hughes | Dave Dombrowski | 2.8 | -5.0 | 7.8±3.8 |
| 1990 | 12 | 1.12 | MIN | Todd Ritchie | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 205 | — | — | Terry Ryan | Andy MacPhail | 10.0 | +4.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1990 | 13 | 1.13 | STL | Donovan Osborne | P P | 21 COLL | S/L | 6'2" | 215 | — | — | — | Dal Maxvill | 10.5 | +2.6 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 1990 | 14 | 1.14 | OAK | Todd Van Poppel | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'5" | 235 | — | — | Dick Bogard Jr | Sandy Alderson | 2.3 | -3.2 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1990 | 15 | 1.15 | SFG | Adam Hyzdu | OF CF | 19 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 220 | — | — | Bob Fontaine Sr | Al Rosen | 1.2 | -6.8 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1990 | 16 | 1.16 | TEX | Dan Smith | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'5" | 190 | — | — | Sandy Johnson | Tom Grieve | -0.1 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1990 | 17 | 1.17 | NYM | Jeromy Burnitz | OF RF | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'0" | 210 | — | — | Roland Johnson | Frank Cashen | 26.1 | +21.8 | 4.4±3.7 |
| 1990 | 18 | 1.18 | STL | Aaron Holbert | IF 2B | 17 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 180 | — | — | — | Dal Maxvill | -0.3 | -3.1 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 1990 | 19 | 1.19 | SFG | Eric Christopherson | C C | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 195 | — | — | Bob Fontaine Sr | Al Rosen | 0.0 | -2.0 | 2.0±3.9 |
| 1990 | 20 | 1.20 | BAL | Mike Mussina | P P | 22 COLL | L/R | 6'2" | 190 | — | — | John Barr | Roland Hemond | 69.9 | +64.4 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1990 | 21 | 1.21 | HOU | Thomas Nevers | IF SS | 19 HS | R/R | 6'0" | 180 | — | — | Dan O'Brien Jr | Bill Wood | 0.0 | -2.8 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 1990 | 22 | 1.22 | TOR | Steve Karsay | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 215 | — | — | — | Pat Gillick | 9.2 | +3.8 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1990 | 23 | 1.23 | CHC | Lance Dickson | P P | 21 COLL | R/L | 6'0" | 185 | — | — | Dick Balderson | Jim Frey | -0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1990 | 24 | 1.24 | WSN | Rondell White | OF LF | 18 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 225 | — | — | Gary Hughes | Dave Dombrowski | 25.9 | +17.9 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1990 | 25 | 1.25 | SDP | Robbie Beckett | P P | 18 HS | R/L | 6'5" | 235 | — | — | Randy Smith | Jack McKeon | -0.3 | -5.8 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1990 | 26 | 1.26 | OAK | Donald Peters | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 190 | — | — | Dick Bogard Jr | Sandy Alderson | 0.0 | -3.0 | 3.0±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.