RRosternomics
𝕏

Reds CIN

‹ ›

GM: Bob Quinn

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.82× league · TAB +9.7
+9.7TAB — talent above budget5th/26
+11.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)4th/26
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars1st/26
-3.6dead WAR — sub-replacement drag10th/26
22%dead money %5th/26
0.562win %4th/26
41.5roster fWAR5th/26
+4surplus $M (value vs cost)4th/26
$14Mpayroll $M22nd/26

1990: World Series champions · 91–71. Ranks are vs the 26 teams that season.

Roster

CFBilly Hatcher 69GEric Davis 66GHerm Winningham 58G
LFBilly Hatcher 76GEric Davis 56GGlenn Braggs 39G
RFPaul O'Neill 141GGlenn Braggs 55GKen Griffey Sr. 1G
SSBarry Larkin 156GMariano Duncan 12GLuis Quinones 9G
2BMariano Duncan 115GBill Doran 111GRon Oester 50G
3BChris Sabo 146GLuis Quinones 22GBill Doran 4G
1BTodd Benzinger 95GHal Morris 80GKen Griffey Sr. 9G
STARTERSJose Rijo 4.5WARJack Armstrong 3.1WARNorm Charlton 2.5WARTom Browning 2.3WARDanny Jackson 1.4WAR
CJoe Oliver 118GJeff Reed 70GAlex Trevino 39G
BULLPEN★ Randy Myers 31svRob Dibble 0hTim Layana 0hTim Birtsas 0hRosario Rodriguez 0hKeith Brown 0hKip Gross 0hChris Hammond 0h
CJoe Oliver 118 · Jeff Reed 70 · Alex Trevino 39
1BTodd Benzinger 95 · Hal Morris 80 · Ken Griffey Sr. 9
2BMariano Duncan 115 · Bill Doran 111 · Ron Oester 50
3BChris Sabo 146 · Luis Quinones 22 · Bill Doran 4
SSBarry Larkin 156 · Mariano Duncan 12 · Luis Quinones 9
LFBilly Hatcher 76 · Eric Davis 56 · Glenn Braggs 39
CFBilly Hatcher 69 · Eric Davis 66 · Herm Winningham 58
RFPaul O'Neill 141 · Glenn Braggs 55 · Ken Griffey Sr. 1
SPJose Rijo 4.5 · Jack Armstrong 3.1 · Norm Charlton 2.5 · Tom Browning 2.3 · Danny Jackson 1.4
BP★ Randy Myers 31 · Rob Dibble 0 · Tim Layana 0 · Tim Birtsas 0 · Rosario Rodriguez 0 · Keith Brown 0 · Kip Gross 0 · Chris Hammond 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1990 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Barry Larkin 26 arb 1585.4 0.8 +1.6
Jose Rijo 25 FA-elig 294.5 0.6 +1.4
Rob Dibble 26 pre-arb 684.2 0.2 +1.7
Chris Sabo 28 pre-arb 1484.1 0.2 +1.6
Eric Davis 28 FA-elig 1273.1 2.1 -0.7
Jack Armstrong 25 pre-arb 293.1 0.1 +1.2
Norm Charlton 27 pre-arb 572.5 0.2 +0.9
Tom Browning 30 FA-elig 382.3 2.1 -1.1
Hal Morris 25 pre-arb 1072.1 0.1 +0.8
Randy Myers 27 arb 662.0 0.9 +0.0
Mariano Duncan 27 arb 1251.7 0.3 +0.4
Billy Hatcher 29 – 1391.7 – –
Glenn Braggs↔ MIL 27 arb 721.6 0.4 +0.3
Joe Oliver 24 pre-arb 1211.5 0.1 +0.5
Danny Jackson 28 FA-elig 221.4 1.1 -0.5
Paul O'Neill 27 arb 1451.3 0.6 -0.0
Bill Doran↔ HOU 32 FA-elig 170.8 0.1 +0.2
Rick Mahler 36 FA-elig 350.7 0.8 -0.5
Herm Winningham 28 FA-elig 840.3 0.3 -0.2
Jeff Reed 27 FA-elig 720.3 0.3 -0.2
Ron Robinson↔ MIL 28 FA-elig 60.2 0.1 -0.0
Alex Trevino↔ HOU 32 FA-elig 70.1 0.0 +0.0
Luis Quinones 28 FA-elig 830.1 0.1 -0.1
Kip Gross 25 – 50.1 – –
Paul Noce 30 – 10.1 – –
Terry Lee 28 pre-arb 120.0 0.1 -0.1
Ron Oester 34 FA-elig 64-0.0 0.7 -0.7
Glenn Sutko 22 – 1-0.0 – –
Keith Brown 26 pre-arb 8-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Gino Minutelli 26 – 2-0.1 – –
Terry McGriff↔ HOU 26 arb 2-0.1 0.0 -0.1
Rosario Rodriguez 20 pre-arb 9-0.1 0.1 -0.1
Tim Layana 26 pre-arb 55-0.2 0.1 -0.2
Billy Bates↔ MIL 26 pre-arb 8-0.2 0.0 -0.1
Tim Birtsas 29 arb 29-0.2 0.1 -0.2
Rolando Roomes↔ WSN 28 pre-arb 30-0.2 0.1 -0.2
Chris Hammond 24 – 3-0.3 – –
Scott Scudder 22 pre-arb 21-0.3 0.1 -0.2
Ken Griffey Sr.↔ SEA 40 FA-elig 46-0.3 0.4 -0.5
Todd Benzinger 27 arb 118-1.5 0.3 -1.0

Key additions (new vs 1989)

PlayerfWAR
Hal Morris2.1
Randy Myers2.0
Billy Hatcher1.7
Glenn Braggs1.6
Bill Doran0.8
Alex Trevino0.1

Key subtractions (gone from 1989)

Player1989 fWAR
Tim Leary1.5
John Franco1.4
Kal Daniels0.3
Mike Griffin0.0
Kent Tekulve-0.0
Van Snider-0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

1990 payroll
$13.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 1990, 1990–1996. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (14)

PlayerAgeSvc1990199119921993199419951996
Tom Browning306.000$2.1M$2.4M$3.2M$2.2M$3.8MFREE AGENT
Eric Davis286.000$2.1M$3.6MFREE AGENT$750k
Danny Jackson287.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Rick Mahler3611.000$790kFREE AGENT
Ron Oester3412.000$650kFREE AGENT
Jose Rijo256.000$630k$2.3M$3.5M$4.1M$4.0M$5.8MFREE AGENT
Ken Griffey Sr.4017.000$350kFREE AGENT
Jeff Reed276.000$345k$600k$750kFREE AGENT
Herm Winningham286.000$338k$438kFREE AGENT
Luis Quinones287.000$150k$300kFREE AGENT
Bill Doran328.000$126k$2.8M$2.8MFREE AGENT
Ron Robinson286.000$107kFREE AGENT
Alex Trevino3212.000$42kFREE AGENT
Billy Hatcher296.000—FREE AGENT$1.0M

Arbitration-eligible (8)

PlayerAgeSvc1990199119921993199419951996
Randy Myers275.000$875kFREE AGENT
Barry Larkin264.000$750kARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul O'Neill275.000$625kFREE AGENT
Glenn Braggs274.000$380kARB 3FREE AGENT
Todd Benzinger273.000$325kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mariano Duncan275.000$325kFREE AGENT
Tim Birtsas295.000$120kFREE AGENT
Terry McGriff263.000$35kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (18)

PlayerAgeSvc1990199119921993199419951996
Rob Dibble262.000$200kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Sabo282.000$200kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Norm Charlton272.000$175kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hal Morris252.000$114kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Oliver241.000$108kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jack Armstrong252.000$108kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Scudder221.000$107kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rosario Rodriguez201.000$100kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Terry Lee280.000$100kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Keith Brown262.000$100kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Layana260.000$100kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rolando Roomes282.000$91kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Billy Bates261.000$36kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kip Gross250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Hammond240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gino Minutelli260.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Noce30–—
Glenn Sutko22–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Reds 1990; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

'; return; } const f=+document.getElementById('yfrom').value, t=+document.getElementById('yto').value, w=+document.getElementById('win').value; document.getElementById('yflab').textContent=f; document.getElementById('ytlab').textContent=t; document.getElementById('winlab').textContent = w===1?'raw':(w+'-yr'); const dark=document.documentElement.getAttribute('data-theme')==='dark'; const ink=dark?'#cdd4dc':'#1d2630', grid=dark?'#2c313a':'#d6dbe2', refc=dark?'#5a636d':'#9aa3ad', dirc=dark?'#ffffff':'#1d2630'; const col=contrastColor(TEAMCOL,dark); function sm(a,w){const h=(w-1)/2,o=[];for(let i=0;id[0]>=f&&d[0]<=t); if(raw.length<2){ Plotly.purge('orbit'); orbEl.innerHTML='

Pick a wider year range.

'; return; } const s=sm(raw,w),n=s.length,X=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[1]*100)/100),Y=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[2]*10)/10),yr=s.map(d=>d[0]); let xa=Math.min(1,...X),xb=Math.max(1,...X),ya=Math.min(0,...Y),yb=Math.max(0,...Y); const px=(xb-xa)*.12+.04,py=(yb-ya)*.12+1.5;xa-=px;xb+=px;ya-=py;yb+=py; const k=Math.max(0,n-3), ann=[]; [['WINDOW','#15b6a0',xa<1&&yb>0,xa,yb,'left','top'],['CONTEND','#2f7ed8',xb>1&&yb>0,xb,yb,'right','top'], ['FORCED-SPEND','#ec5a3c',xb>1&&ya<0,xb,ya,'right','bottom'],['REBUILD','#f0a91c',xa<1&&ya<0,xa,ya,'left','bottom']].forEach(q=>{ if(q[2]) ann.push({x:q[3],y:q[4],xref:'x',yref:'y',text:q[0],showarrow:false,xanchor:q[5],yanchor:q[6],font:{size:10,color:q[1]},opacity:.85});}); ann.push({x:X[n-1],y:Y[n-1],ax:X[n-1]-0.5*(X[n-1]-X[k]),ay:Y[n-1]-0.5*(Y[n-1]-Y[k]),xref:'x',yref:'y',axref:'x',ayref:'y',showarrow:true,arrowhead:2,arrowsize:1.3,arrowwidth:1.7,arrowcolor:dirc,text:''}); Plotly.newPlot('orbit',[{x:X,y:Y,mode:'lines+markers',line:{color:col,width:2.6,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.7}, marker:{color:col,size:s.map((d,i)=>5+7*(i/Math.max(1,n-1))),line:{color:dark?'#1b1e23':'#fff',width:0.6}}, text:yr,hovertemplate:'%{text}
payroll %{x:.2f}× lg · TAB %{y:+.1f}
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'CIN',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});