Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 1 | 1.1 | TBR | Josh Hamilton | OF CF | 18 HS | L/L | 6'4" | 240 | — | — | Dan Jennings | Chuck Lamar | 27.5 | -6.9 | 34.3±4.1 |
| 1999 | 2 | 1.2 | MIA | Josh Beckett | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'5" | 230 | — | — | — | Dave Dombrowski | 36.7 | +17.8 | 18.9±3.8 |
| 1999 | 3 | 1.3 | DET | Eric Munson | IF 3B | 22 COLL | L/R | 6'3" | 220 | — | — | Greg Smith | Randy Smith | -1.7 | -23.2 | 21.5±3.9 |
| 1999 | 4 | 1.4 | ARI | Corey Myers | C C | 19 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 225 | — | — | Don Mitchell | Joe Garagiola | 0.0 | -24.4 | 24.4±3.7 |
| 1999 | 5 | 1.5 | MIN | B.J. Garbe | OF CF | 18 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 195 | — | — | Mike Radcliff | Terry Ryan | 0.0 | -8.0 | 8.0±4.1 |
| 1999 | 6 | 1.6 | WSN | Joshua Girdley | P P | 19 HS | L/L | 6'3" | 180 | — | — | Jim Fleming | Jim Beattie | 0.0 | -9.9 | 9.9±3.8 |
| 1999 | 7 | 1.7 | KCR | Kyle Snyder | P P | 22 COLL | S/R | 6'8" | 230 | — | — | Terry Wetzel | Herk Robinson | 0.9 | -7.0 | 7.9±3.8 |
| 1999 | 8 | 1.8 | PIT | Bobby Bradley | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 190 | — | — | Mickey White | Cam Bonifay | 0.0 | -5.8 | 5.8±3.8 |
| 1999 | 9 | 1.9 | OAK | Barry Zito | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'2" | 205 | — | — | Grady Fuson | Billy Beane | 29.4 | +21.5 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 1999 | 10 | 1.10 | MIL | Ben Sheets | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 220 | — | — | Ken Califano | Sal Bando | 29.9 | +22.0 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 1999 | 11 | 1.11 | SEA | Ryan Christianson | C C | 18 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 220 | — | — | Frank Mattox | Woody Woodward | 0.0 | -3.6 | 3.6±4.1 |
| 1999 | 12 | 1.12 | PHI | Brett Myers | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'4" | 240 | — | — | Mike Arbuckle | Ed Wade | 17.3 | +11.8 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1999 | 13 | 1.13 | BAL | Mike Paradis | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 200 | — | — | Tony Demacio | Frank Wren | 0.0 | -7.9 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 1999 | 14 | 1.14 | CIN | Ty Howington | P P | 19 HS | S/L | 6'4" | 225 | — | — | De Jon Watson | Jim Bowden | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1999 | 15 | 1.15 | CHW | Jason Stumm | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 240 | — | — | Duane Shaffer | Ron Schueler | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1999 | 16 | 1.16 | COL | Jason Jennings | P P | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'2" | 235 | — | — | Pat Daugherty | Gary Hughes | 13.7 | +8.2 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1999 | 17 | 1.17 | BOS | Rick Asadoorian | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 205 | — | — | Wayne Britton | Dan Duquette | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1999 | 18 | 1.18 | BAL | Richard Stahl | P P | 18 HS | R/L | 6'7" | 220 | — | — | Tony Demacio | Frank Wren | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1999 | 19 | 1.19 | TOR | Alex Rios | OF RF | 18 HS | R/R | 6'5" | 210 | — | — | — | Gord Ash | 25.9 | +18.0 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1999 | 20 | 1.20 | SDP | Vince Faison | OF CF | 18 HS | L/R | 5'11" | 195 | — | — | Brad Sloan | Kevin Towers | 0.0 | -8.0 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1999 | 21 | 1.21 | BAL | Larry Bigbie | OF LF | 22 COLL | L/R | 6'4" | 210 | — | — | Tony Demacio | Frank Wren | 1.6 | -2.8 | 4.4±3.7 |
| 1999 | 22 | 1.22 | CHW | Matt Ginter | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 220 | — | — | Duane Shaffer | Ron Schueler | 1.1 | -4.4 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1999 | 23 | 1.23 | BAL | Keith Reed | OF RF | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 210 | — | — | Tony Demacio | Frank Wren | -0.2 | -4.6 | 4.4±3.7 |
| 1999 | 24 | 1.24 | SFG | Kurt Ainsworth | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 200 | — | — | Matt Nerland | Brian Sabean | 0.5 | -5.0 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1999 | 25 | 1.25 | KCR | Mike MacDougal | P P | 22 COLL | S/R | 6'4" | 180 | — | — | Terry Wetzel | Herk Robinson | 2.6 | -2.9 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1999 | 26 | 1.26 | CHC | Ben Christensen | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 215 | — | — | — | Ed Lynch | 0.0 | -3.0 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 1999 | 27 | 1.27 | NYY | Dave Walling | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 210 | — | — | Lin Garrett | Brian Cashman | 0.0 | -3.0 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 1999 | 28 | 1.28 | SDP | Gerik Baxter | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 180 | — | — | Brad Sloan | Kevin Towers | 0.0 | -2.7 | 2.7±3.7 |
| 1999 | 29 | 1.29 | SDP | Omar Ortiz | P P | 22 COLL | S/R | 6'1" | 220 | — | — | Brad Sloan | Kevin Towers | 0.0 | -3.0 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 1999 | 30 | 1.30 | STL | Chance Caple | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'6" | 240 | — | — | — | Walt Jocketty | 0.0 | -3.0 | 3.0±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.