Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 1 | 1.1 | KCR | Luke Hochevar | P P | 23 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 225 | — | — | Deric Ladnier | Allard Baird | 8.9 | -10.8 | 19.6±3.8 |
| 2006 | 2 | 1.2 | COL | Greg Reynolds | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'7" | 225 | — | — | Bill Schmidt | Daniel O'Dowd | -0.7 | -18.6 | 17.9±3.9 |
| 2006 | 3 | 1.3 | TBR | Evan Longoria | IF 3B | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 213 | — | — | R J Harrison | Andrew Friedman | 53.5 | +32.0 | 21.5±3.9 |
| 2006 | 4 | 1.4 | PIT | Brad Lincoln | P P | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'0" | 225 | — | — | Ed Creech | Dave Littlefield | 0.7 | -9.1 | 9.8±3.8 |
| 2006 | 5 | 1.5 | SEA | Brandon Morrow | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 207 | — | — | Bob Fontaine Jr | Bill Bavasi | 12.1 | +3.6 | 8.5±3.9 |
| 2006 | 6 | 1.6 | DET | Andrew Miller | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'7" | 200 | — | — | David Chadd | Dave Dombrowski | 12.0 | +4.1 | 7.9±3.8 |
| 2006 | 7 | 1.7 | LAD | Clayton Kershaw | P P | 18 HS | L/L | 6'4" | 225 | — | — | Logan White | Ned Colletti | 71.2 | +61.3 | 9.9±3.8 |
| 2006 | 8 | 1.8 | CIN | Drew Stubbs | OF CF | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 205 | — | — | Chris Buckley | Dan O'Brien | 11.8 | +3.3 | 8.5±3.9 |
| 2006 | 9 | 1.9 | BAL | Billy Rowell | P P | 18 HS | L/R | 6'5" | 205 | — | — | Joe Jordan | Mike Flanagan | 0.0 | -5.8 | 5.8±3.8 |
| 2006 | 10 | 1.10 | SFG | Tim Lincecum | P P | 22 COLL | L/R | 5'11" | 170 | — | — | Matt Nerland | Brian Sabean | 27.0 | +19.1 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2006 | 11 | 1.11 | ARI | Max Scherzer | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 208 | — | — | Mike Rizzo | Josh Byrnes | 66.8 | +58.9 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2006 | 12 | 1.12 | TEX | Kasey Kiker | P P | 19 HS | L/L | 5'10" | 185 | — | — | Ron Hopkins | Jon Daniels | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2006 | 13 | 1.13 | CHC | Tyler Colvin | OF RF | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'3" | 210 | — | — | Tim Wilken | Jim Hendry | 1.9 | -2.5 | 4.4±3.8 |
| 2006 | 14 | 1.14 | TOR | Travis Snider | OF LF | 18 HS | L/L | 6'0" | 230 | — | — | — | JP Ricciardi | 3.2 | -4.7 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2006 | 15 | 1.15 | WSN | Chris Marrero | IF 1B | 18 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 229 | — | — | Dana Brown | Jim Bowden | -1.3 | -9.1 | 7.8±3.8 |
| 2006 | 16 | 1.16 | MIL | Jeremy Jeffress | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'0" | 205 | — | — | Jack Zduriencik | Douglas Melvin | 3.9 | -1.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2006 | 17 | 1.17 | SDP | Matt Antonelli | IF 2B | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 195 | — | — | Bill Gayton | Kevin Towers | -0.4 | -11.3 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2006 | 18 | 1.18 | PHI | Kyle Drabek | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 205 | — | — | Marti Wolever | Pat Gillick | -0.4 | -5.9 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2006 | 19 | 1.19 | MIA | Brett Sinkbeil | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 210 | — | — | — | Larry Beinfest | -0.1 | -5.6 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2006 | 20 | 1.20 | MIN | Chris Parmelee | IF 1B | 18 HS | L/L | 6'1" | 220 | — | — | Mike Radcliff | Terry Ryan | 1.1 | -1.6 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2006 | 21 | 1.21 | NYY | Ian Kennedy | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 210 | — | — | Damon Oppenheimer | Brian Cashman | 17.1 | +11.6 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2006 | 22 | 1.22 | WSN | Colton Willems | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'4" | 175 | — | — | Dana Brown | Jim Bowden | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2006 | 23 | 1.23 | HOU | Maxwell Sapp | C C | 18 HS | L/R | 6'2" | 220 | — | — | Paul Ricciarini | Tim Purpura | 0.0 | -3.6 | 3.6±3.9 |
| 2006 | 24 | 1.24 | ATL | Cody Johnson | OF LF | 18 HS | L/R | 6'4" | 240 | — | — | Roy Clark | John Schuerholz | 0.0 | -8.0 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2006 | 25 | 1.25 | ANA | Hank Conger | C C | 18 HS | L/R | 6'2" | 220 | — | — | Eddie Bane | Bill Stoneman | 6.8 | +3.2 | 3.6±3.9 |
| 2006 | 26 | 1.26 | LAD | Bryan Morris | P P | 19 HS | L/R | 6'3" | 220 | — | — | Logan White | Ned Colletti | -1.4 | -4.1 | 2.7±3.7 |
| 2006 | 27 | 1.27 | BOS | Jason Place | OF CF | 18 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 205 | — | — | Jason McLeod | Jed Hoyer | 0.0 | -2.4 | 2.4±3.7 |
| 2006 | 28 | 1.28 | BOS | Daniel Bard | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 215 | — | — | Jason McLeod | Jed Hoyer | 3.7 | +0.7 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2006 | 29 | 1.29 | CHW | Kyle McCulloch | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 190 | — | — | Duane Shaffer | Kenny Williams | 0.0 | -3.0 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2006 | 30 | 1.30 | STL | Adam Ottavino | P P | 21 COLL | S/R | 6'5" | 246 | — | — | — | Walt Jocketty | 7.3 | +4.3 | 3.0±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.