RRosternomics

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Dana Brown

Braves, Nationals

2002–2009, 2019–2022 · 12 drafts · 491 picks

Early-Round Selection
+54.6
#3 of 172
rds 1–10, cost-ctrl
Late-Round Value
-17.3
#146 of 172
rds 11+, total career
Total DVOS
-5.8
#74 of 172
-0.48/draft
Hitter DVOS
+72.1
#36 of 172
reliable skill (+0.54)
Career fWAR drafted
261
#19 of 172

Value by position — where the value came from (descriptive)

PosPicksfWARDVOS
IF1763 +35.4
P51138 +35.0
OF936 +23.8
C624 +12.9

Position from each player's primary MLB fielding spot; never-MLB picks excluded. This table is descriptive, not a skill ranking — per-position DVOS isn't reliable at this granularity (split-half ≈ 0 for P/OF, a small-sample mirage for C). The one reliable position cut is Hitter vs Pitcher: drafting hitters (C/IF/OF) above slot repeats (split-half +0.54, the KPI above), but drafting pitchers above slot does not (≈ 0) — so we rank Hitter DVOS and leave pitcher out.

Top picks — who drove the value

YrOvrPlayerPosfWARExpDVOS
20054Ryan Zimmerman1B 39.510.4 +29.1
20091Stephen StrasburgP 37.723.5 +14.2
200767Jordan ZimmermannP 26.11.9 +24.2
200484Ian DesmondSS 18.31.1 +17.2
201998Michael Harris IIOF 15.01.1 +14.0
2005174Marco EstradaP 11.70.8 +10.9
2020126Spencer StriderP 11.21.0 +10.2
2009172Michael A. TaylorOF 10.20.8 +9.4
2007130Derek NorrisC 9.91.0 +8.9
20199Shea LangeliersC 9.47.9 +1.6
2005354Craig StammenP 8.90.3 +8.6
200887Danny Espinosa2B 7.91.1 +6.9
2008301Tommy MiloneP 7.20.3 +6.9
2007100Steven Souza Jr.OF 5.61.1 +4.5
202296Drake BaldwinC 5.41.1 +4.4

By draft class

YearPicksfWARExpectedDVOS
2002502.0 22.5-20.5
2003502.0 18.0-16.1
20045018.4 20.0-1.6
20054868.5 19.6+48.9
2006523.6 24.3-20.7
20075343.6 31.7+12.0
20085012.4 19.5-7.1
20095156.2 44.0+12.2
20194124.3 23.9+0.3
2020416.3 7.9+8.4
2021208.9 14.9-6.1
2022225.0 20.7-15.7
Total491 261 -5.8

DVOS = Σ (a pick's career fWAR − the expected fWAR for that overall slot), credited to the scouting director SABR lists for that draft. We only attribute years with one unambiguous director on record; years where SABR lists multiple names (handoffs/overlaps) or none are left out, so a director's record here may skip years he was involved in — see the coverage note on the leaderboard. Single drafts are noise-dominated — one star swamps a class — so read the multi-year totals, not any one year. Full method on the DVOS page.