RRosternomics

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Chris Buckley

Reds, Blue Jays

2001–2002, 2007–2018 · 14 drafts · 641 picks

Early-Round Selection
-7.8
#108 of 172
rds 1–10, cost-ctrl
Late-Round Value
-49.2
#171 of 172
rds 11+, total career
Total DVOS
-81.1
#167 of 172
-5.79/draft
Hitter DVOS
+29.1
#76 of 172
reliable skill (+0.54)
Career fWAR drafted
213
#31 of 172

Value by position — where the value came from (descriptive)

PosPicksfWARDVOS
C1158 +31.9
P5682 +22.1
IF1644 +6.0
OF2129 -8.8

Position from each player's primary MLB fielding spot; never-MLB picks excluded. This table is descriptive, not a skill ranking — per-position DVOS isn't reliable at this granularity (split-half ≈ 0 for P/OF, a small-sample mirage for C). The one reliable position cut is Hitter vs Pitcher: drafting hitters (C/IF/OF) above slot repeats (split-half +0.54, the KPI above), but drafting pitchers above slot does not (≈ 0) — so we rank Hitter DVOS and leave pitcher out.

Top picks — who drove the value

YrOvrPlayerPosfWARExpDVOS
201012Yasmani GrandalC 40.07.9 +32.1
200734Todd Frazier3B 24.12.9 +21.2
20098Mike LeakeP 21.29.2 +12.0
2013225Tyler MahleP 12.10.5 +11.6
200957Billy HamiltonOF 11.71.8 +9.9
20172Hunter GreeneP 10.614.2 -3.5
200779Zack CozartSS 10.31.9 +8.4
200255Dave BushP 9.81.8 +8.0
201338Michael LorenzenP 9.82.9 +6.9
201249Jesse WinkerOF 8.72.4 +6.3
20185Jonathan India2B 7.89.0 -1.1
201511Tyler StephensonC 7.87.9 -0.1
2009299Tucker BarnhartC 5.80.5 +5.3
200115Gabe GrossOF 5.55.8 -0.3
20087Yonder Alonso1B 4.79.2 -4.6

By draft class

YearPicksfWARExpectedDVOS
2001507.7 17.5-9.8
20025012.1 17.8-5.7
20075334.9 22.7+12.3
2008494.3 19.5-15.2
20095139.8 23.6+16.2
20105039.0 19.6+19.4
2011505.8 12.5-6.7
2012427.9 20.5-12.7
20134125.2 15.7+9.5
2014414.6 19.3-14.7
20154113.7 21.8-8.2
201641-1.6 29.9-31.6
20174111.9 30.4-18.6
2018417.5 22.9-15.4
Total641 213 -81.1

DVOS = Σ (a pick's career fWAR − the expected fWAR for that overall slot), credited to the scouting director SABR lists for that draft. We only attribute years with one unambiguous director on record; years where SABR lists multiple names (handoffs/overlaps) or none are left out, so a director's record here may skip years he was involved in — see the coverage note on the leaderboard. Single drafts are noise-dominated — one star swamps a class — so read the multi-year totals, not any one year. Full method on the DVOS page.