Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 1 | 1.1 | WSN | Stephen Strasburg | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 239 | — | — | Dana Brown | Michael Rizzo | 37.8 | +18.1 | 19.6±3.8 |
| 2009 | 2 | 1.2 | SEA | Dustin Ackley | IF 2B | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'1" | 205 | — | — | Tom McNamara | Jack Zduriencik | 6.8 | -14.8 | 21.5±4.0 |
| 2009 | 3 | 1.3 | SDP | Donavan Tate | OF CF | 19 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 200 | — | — | Bill Gayton | Fred Uhlman | 0.0 | -14.3 | 14.3±4.2 |
| 2009 | 4 | 1.4 | PIT | Tony Sanchez | C C | 21 COLL | R/R | 5'11" | 220 | — | — | Greg Smith | Neal Huntington | 0.5 | -24.0 | 24.4±3.7 |
| 2009 | 5 | 1.5 | BAL | Matt Hobgood | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'4" | 245 | — | — | Joe Jordan | Andy MacPhail | 0.0 | -9.9 | 9.9±3.9 |
| 2009 | 6 | 1.6 | SFG | Zack Wheeler | P P | 19 HS | L/R | 6'4" | 195 | — | — | John Barr | Brian Sabean | 37.7 | +27.7 | 9.9±3.8 |
| 2009 | 7 | 1.7 | ATL | Mike Minor | P P | 22 COLL | R/L | 6'4" | 210 | — | — | Roy Clark | Frank Wren | 17.7 | +9.8 | 7.9±3.8 |
| 2009 | 8 | 1.8 | CIN | Mike Leake | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 5'10" | 165 | — | — | Chris Buckley | Walt Jocketty | 21.2 | +13.3 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2009 | 9 | 1.9 | DET | Jacob Turner | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'5" | 215 | — | — | David Chadd | Dave Dombrowski | -0.5 | -6.3 | 5.8±3.8 |
| 2009 | 10 | 1.10 | WSN | Drew Storen | P P | 22 COLL | S/R | 6'1" | 200 | — | — | Dana Brown | Michael Rizzo | 4.5 | -3.4 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2009 | 11 | 1.11 | COL | Tyler Matzek | P P | 19 HS | L/L | 6'3" | 250 | — | — | Bill Schmidt | Daniel O'Dowd | 3.5 | -2.0 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2009 | 12 | 1.12 | KCR | Aaron Crow | P P | 23 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 195 | — | — | — | Dayton Moore | -0.0 | -7.9 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2009 | 13 | 1.13 | OAK | Grant Green | IF 2B | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 180 | — | — | Eric Kubota | Billy Beane | -0.9 | -11.8 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2009 | 14 | 1.14 | TEX | ✕ Matt Purke | P P | 19 HS | L/L | 6'4" | 215 | — | — | Ron Hopkins | Jon Daniels | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2009 | 15 | 1.15 | CLE | Alex White | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 220 | — | — | Brad Grant | Mark Shapiro | -0.6 | -8.5 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2009 | 16 | 1.16 | ARI | Bobby Borchering | IF 3B | 19 HS | S/R | 6'2" | 205 | — | — | Tom Allison | Josh Byrnes | 0.0 | -2.8 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2009 | 17 | 1.17 | ARI | AJ Pollock | OF CF | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 210 | — | — | Tom Allison | Josh Byrnes | 21.4 | +17.1 | 4.4±3.7 |
| 2009 | 18 | 1.18 | MIA | Chad James | P P | 18 HS | L/L | 6'3" | 180 | — | — | — | Larry Beinfest | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2009 | 19 | 1.19 | STL | Shelby Miller | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 225 | — | — | — | John Mozeliak | 7.5 | +2.0 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2009 | 20 | 1.20 | TOR | Chad Jenkins | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 230 | — | — | — | JP Ricciardi | 0.1 | -5.3 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2009 | 21 | 1.21 | HOU | Jio Mier | IF SS | 19 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 204 | — | — | Bobby Heck | Ed Wade | 0.0 | -2.8 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2009 | 22 | 1.22 | MIN | Kyle Gibson | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'6" | 200 | — | — | Deron Johnson | Bill Smith | 22.3 | +16.8 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2009 | 23 | 1.23 | CHW | Jared Mitchell | OF CF | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'0" | 205 | — | — | — | Kenny Williams | 0.0 | -4.4 | 4.4±3.7 |
| 2009 | 24 | 1.24 | ANA | Randal Grichuk | OF RF | 18 HS | R/R | 6'0" | 210 | — | — | Eddie Bane | Tony Reagins | 14.4 | +6.5 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2009 | 25 | 1.25 | ANA | Mike Trout | OF CF | 18 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 235 | — | — | Eddie Bane | Tony Reagins | 85.4 | +77.4 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2009 | 26 | 1.26 | MIL | Eric Arnett | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 230 | — | — | Bruce Seid | Douglas Melvin | 0.0 | -3.0 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2009 | 27 | 1.27 | SEA | Nick Franklin | IF 2B | 18 HS | S/R | 6'1" | 190 | — | — | Tom McNamara | Jack Zduriencik | 0.7 | -2.0 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2009 | 28 | 1.28 | BOS | Rey Fuentes | OF CF | 18 HS | L/L | 6'0" | 160 | — | — | Jason McLeod | Theo Epstein | -0.7 | -3.1 | 2.4±3.7 |
| 2009 | 29 | 1.29 | NYY | Slade Heathcott | OF RF | 19 HS | L/L | 6'1" | 205 | — | — | Damon Oppenheimer | Brian Cashman | 0.5 | -1.8 | 2.4±3.7 |
| 2009 | 30 | 1.30 | TBR | ✕ LeVon Washington | OF CF | 18 HS | L/R | 5'11" | 170 | — | — | R J Harrison | Andrew Friedman | 0.0 | -2.4 | 2.4±3.7 |
| 2009 | 31 | 1.31 | CHC | Brett Jackson | OF CF | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'2" | 220 | — | — | Tim Wilken | Jim Hendry | 0.1 | -3.7 | 3.8±3.7 |
| 2009 | 32 | 1.32 | COL | Tim Wheeler | OF CF | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'4" | 205 | — | — | Bill Schmidt | Daniel O'Dowd | 0.0 | -3.8 | 3.8±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.