RRosternomics
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Red Sox BOS

‹ ›

GM: Theo Epstein

Overview

CONTEND ↘ cooling
expensive & winning · year 3 in this regime · payroll 1.43× league · TAB +3.8
+3.8TAB — talent above budget12th/30
+8.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)7th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars9th/30
-2.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag3rd/30
51%dead money %22nd/30
0.586win %3rd/30
42.3roster fWAR6th/30
-30surplus $M (value vs cost)23rd/30
$130Mpayroll $M4th/30

2009: made playoffs · 95–67. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFJacoby Ellsbury 153GBrian Anderson 67GJoey Gathright 15G
LFJason Bay 150GJosh Reddick 12GJoey Gathright 7G
RFJ.D. Drew 131GRocco Baldelli 35GBrian Anderson 17G
SSÁlex González 112GNick Green 81GJed Lowrie 26G
2BDustin Pedroia 154GChris Woodward 11GNick Green 7G
3BMike Lowell 107GKevin Youkilis 63GChris Woodward 18G
1BCasey Kotchman 114GKevin Youkilis 78GVictor Martinez 70G
STARTERSJon Lester 5.3WARJosh Beckett 4.3WARTim Wakefield 1.9WARClay Buchholz 0.7WARDaisuke Matsuzaka 0.3WAR
CJason Varitek 108GVictor Martinez 85GGeorge Kottaras 39G
DHDavid Ortiz 139GMike Lowell 8GRocco Baldelli 5G
BULLPEN★ Jonathan Papelbon 38svHideki Okajima 23hDaniel Bard 13hRamon E Ramirez 12hManny Delcarmen 6hBilly Wagner 6hTakashi Saito 2hJavier López 0h
CJason Varitek 108 · Victor Martinez 85 · George Kottaras 39
1BCasey Kotchman 114 · Kevin Youkilis 78 · Victor Martinez 70
2BDustin Pedroia 154 · Chris Woodward 11 · Nick Green 7
3BMike Lowell 107 · Kevin Youkilis 63 · Chris Woodward 18
SSÁlex González 112 · Nick Green 81 · Jed Lowrie 26
LFJason Bay 150 · Josh Reddick 12 · Joey Gathright 7
CFJacoby Ellsbury 153 · Brian Anderson 67 · Joey Gathright 15
RFJ.D. Drew 131 · Rocco Baldelli 35 · Brian Anderson 17
DHDavid Ortiz 139 · Mike Lowell 8 · Rocco Baldelli 5
SPJon Lester 5.3 · Josh Beckett 4.3 · Tim Wakefield 1.9 · Clay Buchholz 0.7 · Daisuke Matsuzaka 0.3
BP★ Jonathan Papelbon 38 · Hideki Okajima 23 · Daniel Bard 13 · Ramon E Ramirez 12 · Manny Delcarmen 6 · Billy Wagner 6 · Takashi Saito 2 · Javier López 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2009 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Kevin Youkilis 30 arb 1365.9 6.2 +7.9
Jon Lester 25 arb 325.3 1.0 +11.7
J.D. Drew 33 FA-elig 1374.9 14.0 -2.4
Dustin Pedroia 25 arb 1544.7 1.8 +9.4
Jason Bay 30 FA-elig 1514.6 7.8 +3.2
Josh Beckett 29 FA-elig 324.3 11.2 -0.8
Jacoby Ellsbury 25 pre-arb 1532.1 0.4 +4.5
Jonathan Papelbon 28 arb 661.9 6.2 -1.7
Tim Wakefield 42 FA-elig 211.9 4.0 +0.5
Brad Penny↔ SFG 31 FA-elig 241.3 4.0 -0.8
Victor Martinez↔ CLE 30 FA-elig 561.3 2.2 +0.8
Álex González↔ CIN 32 FA-elig 440.9 2.1 +0.1
Justin Masterson↔ CLE 24 pre-arb 310.8 0.3 +1.7
Clay Buchholz 24 pre-arb 170.7 0.4 +1.3
Daniel Bard 24 pre-arb 490.7 0.4 +1.2
Hideki Okajima 33 pre-arb 680.5 1.8 -0.5
Rocco Baldelli 27 FA-elig 620.5 0.5 +0.7
Takashi Saito 39 arb 560.3 1.5 -0.7
David Ortiz 33 FA-elig 1500.3 13.0 -12.2
Billy Wagner↔ NYM 37 FA-elig 150.3 9.3 -8.6
Ramon E Ramirez 27 arb 700.3 0.4 +0.2
Jeff Bailey 30 – 260.3 – –
Daisuke Matsuzaka 28 pre-arb 120.3 8.3 -7.7
Paul Byrd 38 – 70.2 – –
John Smoltz↔ STL 42 FA-elig 80.2 2.9 -2.5
Jonathan Van Every 29 pre-arb 70.2 0.4 +0.0
Dusty Brown 27 pre-arb 70.2 0.4 -0.0
Joey Gathright↔ CHC 28 arb 170.1 0.4 -0.2
Fernando Cabrera 27 – 60.1 – –
Manny Delcarmen 27 arb 640.0 0.5 -0.4
Adam LaRoche↔ ATL 29 arb 60.0 0.3 -0.2
Brian Anderson↔ CHW 27 arb 210.0 0.1 -0.1
Dustin Richardson 25 pre-arb 30.0 0.4 -0.4
Gil Velazquez 29 – 6-0.0 – –
George Kottaras 26 pre-arb 45-0.0 0.4 -0.4
Nick Green 30 arb 104-0.0 0.6 -0.6
Mike Lowell 35 FA-elig 119-0.0 12.5 -12.5
Aaron Bates 25 pre-arb 5-0.0 0.4 -0.5
Chris Woodward↔ SEA 33 – 13-0.0 – –
Michael Bowden 22 pre-arb 8-0.0 0.4 -0.5
Casey Kotchman↔ ATL 26 arb 39-0.1 0.9 -1.0
Junichi Tazawa 23 pre-arb 6-0.1 0.5 -0.6
Enrique Gonzalez 26 – 2-0.1 – –
Chris Carter 26 pre-arb 4-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Hunter Jones 25 pre-arb 11-0.2 0.4 -0.9
Javier López 31 FA-elig 14-0.2 1.4 -1.8
Billy Traber 29 – 1-0.2 – –
Jason Varitek 37 FA-elig 109-0.3 5.0 -5.6
Josh Reddick 22 pre-arb 27-0.3 0.4 -1.1
Jed Lowrie 25 pre-arb 32-0.3 0.4 -1.2
Mark Kotsay↔ CHW 33 FA-elig 27-0.4 0.6 -1.5
Julio Lugo↔ STL 33 FA-elig 37-0.4 3.9 -4.9

Key additions (new vs 2008)

PlayerfWAR
Brad Penny1.3
Victor Martinez1.3
Álex González0.9
Daniel Bard0.7
Rocco Baldelli0.5
Takashi Saito0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2008)

Player2008 fWAR
Manny Ramirez3.0
Coco Crisp1.7
Alex Cora0.6
Bartolo Colon0.5
Brandon Moss0.5
Kevin Cash0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2009 payroll
$130.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 2009, 2009–2015. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
J.D. Drew3311.000$14.0M$14.0M$14.0MFREE AGENT
David Ortiz3312.000$13.0M$13.0M$12.5M$14.6M$14.0M$15.0M$16.0M
Mike Lowell3511.000$12.5M$12.5MFREE AGENT
Josh Beckett298.000$11.2M$12.1M$17.0M$12.8MFREE AGENT
Billy Wagner3714.000$9.3MFREE AGENT
Jason Bay306.000$7.8MFREE AGENT
Jason Varitek3712.000$5.0M$3.0M$2.0MFREE AGENT
Tim Wakefield4217.000$4.0M$3.5M$2.0MFREE AGENT
Brad Penny319.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Julio Lugo339.000$3.9MFREE AGENT
John Smoltz4221.000$2.9MFREE AGENT
Victor Martinez307.000$2.2M$7.7MFREE AGENT
Álex González3211.000$2.1MFREE AGENT
Javier López316.000$1.4MFREE AGENT
Mark Kotsay3312.000$604kFREE AGENT
Rocco Baldelli276.000$500kFREE AGENT
Paul Byrd3814.000—FREE AGENT
Chris Woodward3310.000—FREE AGENT
Billy Traber296.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Kevin Youkilis305.000$6.2MFREE AGENT
Jonathan Papelbon284.000$6.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Dustin Pedroia253.000$1.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Takashi Saito393.000$1.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jon Lester253.000$1.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Kotchman265.000$893kFREE AGENT
Nick Green305.000$550kFREE AGENT
Manny Delcarmen274.000$476kARB 3FREE AGENT
Ramon E Ramirez273.000$441kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Gathright285.000$368kFREE AGENT
Adam LaRoche295.000$282kFREE AGENT
Brian Anderson274.000$107kARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Cabrera275.000—FREE AGENT
Enrique Gonzalez263.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Daisuke Matsuzaka282.000$8.3MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hideki Okajima332.000$1.8MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Junichi Tazawa230.000$450kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacoby Ellsbury252.000$450kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jed Lowrie251.000$414kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Clay Buchholz242.000$414kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Van Every291.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Bowden221.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
George Kottaras261.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dustin Richardson250.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dusty Brown270.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Carter261.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Jones250.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Bates250.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Reddick220.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Bard240.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Masterson241.000$307kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Bailey30–—
Gil Velazquez290.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Red Sox 2009; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'BOS',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});