RRosternomics
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Twins MIN

‹ ›

GM: Bill Smith

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.76× league · TAB +3.8
+3.8TAB — talent above budget13th/30
+8.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)9th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars9th/30
-4.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag15th/30
19%dead money %4th/30
0.534win %11th/30
35.0roster fWAR11th/30
+14surplus $M (value vs cost)6th/30
$70Mpayroll $M21st/30

2009: made playoffs · 87–76. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFCarlos Gómez 132GDenard Span 84GMichael Cuddyer 3G
LFDelmon Young 98GDenard Span 74GJason Kubel 29G
RFMichael Cuddyer 117GDenard Span 39GJason Kubel 30G
SSOrlando Cabrera 158GNick Punto 58GBrendan Harris 56G
2BAlexi Casilla 72GNick Punto 63GMatt Tolbert 36G
3BJoe Crede 84GBrendan Harris 44GMatt Tolbert 27G
1BJustin Morneau 123GMichael Cuddyer 34GBrian Buscher 13G
STARTERSScott Baker 3.3WARNick Blackburn 2.3WARCarl Pavano 1.6WARKevin Slowey 1.3WARBrian Duensing 0.8WAR
CJoe Mauer 109GMike Redmond 44GJose Morales 29G
DHJason Kubel 79GJoe Mauer 28GJustin Morneau 12G
BULLPEN★ Joe Nathan 47svMatt Guerrier 33hJose Mijares 27hJon Rauch 17hRon Mahay 6hJesse Crain 4hBob Keppel 4hR.A. Dickey 1h
CJoe Mauer 109 · Mike Redmond 44 · Jose Morales 29
1BJustin Morneau 123 · Michael Cuddyer 34 · Brian Buscher 13
2BAlexi Casilla 72 · Nick Punto 63 · Matt Tolbert 36
3BJoe Crede 84 · Brendan Harris 44 · Matt Tolbert 27
SSOrlando Cabrera 158 · Nick Punto 58 · Brendan Harris 56
LFDelmon Young 98 · Denard Span 74 · Jason Kubel 29
CFCarlos Gómez 132 · Denard Span 84 · Michael Cuddyer 3
RFMichael Cuddyer 117 · Denard Span 39 · Jason Kubel 30
DHJason Kubel 79 · Joe Mauer 28 · Justin Morneau 12
SPScott Baker 3.3 · Nick Blackburn 2.3 · Carl Pavano 1.6 · Kevin Slowey 1.3 · Brian Duensing 0.8
BP★ Joe Nathan 47 · Matt Guerrier 33 · Jose Mijares 27 · Jon Rauch 17 · Ron Mahay 6 · Jesse Crain 4 · Bob Keppel 4 · R.A. Dickey 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2009 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Joe Mauer 26 arb 1388.3 10.5 +9.4
Denard Span 25 pre-arb 1454.1 0.4 +9.4
Scott Baker 27 arb 333.3 0.8 +7.1
Justin Morneau 28 FA-elig 1353.3 11.6 -3.7
Michael Cuddyer 30 FA-elig 1532.5 7.7 -1.8
Jason Kubel 27 arb 1462.3 2.8 +2.8
Nick Blackburn 27 pre-arb 332.3 0.4 +5.0
Joe Nathan 34 FA-elig 701.8 11.2 -7.0
Joe Crede 31 FA-elig 901.7 2.5 +1.6
Nick Punto 31 FA-elig 1251.7 4.0 +0.1
Carl Pavano↔ CLE 33 FA-elig 121.6 0.5 +3.4
Kevin Slowey 25 pre-arb 161.3 0.4 +2.7
Carlos Gómez 23 pre-arb 1371.0 0.4 +2.0
Brian Duensing 26 pre-arb 240.8 0.4 +1.5
Glen Perkins 26 arb 180.7 0.4 +1.2
Francisco Liriano 25 arb 290.6 0.4 +1.0
Jose Mijares 24 pre-arb 710.6 0.4 +0.9
Orlando Cabrera↔ OAK 34 FA-elig 590.5 1.5 -0.2
Brian Buscher 28 pre-arb 610.3 0.4 +0.4
Jon Rauch↔ ARI 30 FA-elig 170.2 0.6 -0.0
Jesse Crain 27 arb 560.2 1.7 -1.3
Jose Morales 26 pre-arb 540.2 0.4 -0.0
Matt Guerrier 30 arb 790.1 1.5 -1.2
Matt Tolbert 27 pre-arb 710.0 0.4 -0.3
Bob Keppel 27 – 370.0 – –
Jeff Manship 24 pre-arb 110.0 0.4 -0.3
Kevin Mulvey↔ ARI 24 – 20.0 – –
Jason Pridie 25 pre-arb 10.0 0.4 -0.4
Luis Ayala↔ MIA 31 FA-elig 28-0.0 1.0 -1.0
Ron Mahay↔ KCR 38 FA-elig 16-0.0 1.1 -1.2
Philip Humber 26 arb 8-0.1 1.1 -1.3
Justin Huber 26 – 1-0.1 – –
Armando Gabino 25 – 2-0.1 – –
Juan Morillo 25 – 3-0.1 – –
Brendan Harris 28 arb 123-0.2 0.5 -0.8
Sean Henn↔ BAL 28 arb 14-0.2 0.3 -0.8
Anthony Swarzak 23 pre-arb 12-0.3 0.4 -1.0
Craig Breslow↔ OAK 28 arb 17-0.3 0.1 -0.8
R.A. Dickey 34 FA-elig 35-0.4 0.5 -1.4
Mike Redmond 38 FA-elig 45-0.5 0.9 -2.1
Alexi Casilla 24 arb 80-1.2 0.4 -3.3
Delmon Young 23 arb 108-1.3 1.2 -4.3

Key additions (new vs 2008)

PlayerfWAR
Joe Crede1.7
Carl Pavano1.6
Brian Duensing0.8
Orlando Cabrera0.5
Jon Rauch0.2
Jose Morales0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2008)

Player2008 fWAR
Livan Hernandez1.0
Boof Bonser0.9
Dennys Reyes0.4
Adam Everett0.3
Howie Clark0.1
Pat Neshek0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2009 payroll
$69.8M

What the front office was committed to as of 2009, 2009–2015. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Justin Morneau286.000$11.6M$15.0M$15.0M$14.0M$11.7MFREE AGENT
Joe Nathan3410.000$11.2MFREE AGENT$11.2M
Michael Cuddyer308.000$7.7M$9.4M$10.5MFREE AGENT
Nick Punto318.000$4.0M$4.0MFREE AGENT
Joe Crede319.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
Orlando Cabrera3412.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Ron Mahay3814.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Luis Ayala316.000$958kFREE AGENT
Mike Redmond3811.000$950kFREE AGENT
Jon Rauch307.000$572k$2.9MFREE AGENT
Carl Pavano3311.000$545k$7.0M$8.0M$8.5MFREE AGENT
R.A. Dickey348.000$525kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Joe Mauer265.000$10.5MFREE AGENT
Jason Kubel275.000$2.8MFREE AGENT
Jesse Crain275.000$1.7MFREE AGENT
Matt Guerrier305.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Delmon Young233.000$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Philip Humber263.000$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Baker274.000$750kARB 3FREE AGENT
Brendan Harris285.000$466kFREE AGENT
Francisco Liriano254.000$430kARB 3FREE AGENT
Glen Perkins263.000$430kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alexi Casilla243.000$428kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Henn284.000$350kARB 3FREE AGENT
Craig Breslow284.000$93kARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Huber264.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Kevin Slowey252.000$440kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Blackburn272.000$440kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Gómez232.000$438kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Denard Span251.000$435kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Buscher282.000$412kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Tolbert271.000$405kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Mijares241.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Morales262.000$400kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Pridie251.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Manship240.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Duensing260.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Swarzak230.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bob Keppel27–—
Juan Morillo25–—
Kevin Mulvey24–—
Armando Gabino25–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Twins 2009; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'MIN',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});