Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 1 | 1.1 | PIT | Gerrit Cole | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 220 | — | — | Greg Smith | Neal Huntington | 46.6 | +27.0 | 19.6±3.8 |
| 2011 | 2 | 1.2 | SEA | Danny Hultzen | P P | 22 COLL | L/L | 6'3" | 210 | — | — | Tom McNamara | Jack Zduriencik | 0.1 | -17.8 | 17.9±3.9 |
| 2011 | 3 | 1.3 | ARI | Trevor Bauer | P P | 20 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 205 | — | — | Mike Berger | Kevin Towers | 21.3 | +11.5 | 9.8±3.9 |
| 2011 | 4 | 1.4 | BAL | Dylan Bundy | P P | 19 HS | S/R | 6'1" | 225 | — | — | Joe Jordan | Andy MacPhail | 10.1 | +0.2 | 9.9±4.1 |
| 2011 | 5 | 1.5 | KCR | Bubba Starling | OF CF | 19 HS | R/R | 6'4" | 220 | — | — | — | Dayton Moore | -1.0 | -9.0 | 8.0±4.1 |
| 2011 | 6 | 1.6 | WSN | Anthony Rendon | IF 3B | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 200 | — | — | Kris Kline | Michael Rizzo | 33.8 | +19.0 | 14.8±4.0 |
| 2011 | 7 | 1.7 | ARI | Archie Bradley | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'4" | 215 | — | — | Mike Berger | Kevin Towers | 5.9 | -4.0 | 9.9±3.8 |
| 2011 | 8 | 1.8 | CLE | Francisco Lindor | IF SS | 18 HS | S/R | 5'10" | 190 | — | — | Brad Grant | Mark Shapiro | 61.0 | +46.7 | 14.3±3.9 |
| 2011 | 9 | 1.9 | CHC | Javier Báez | IF SS | 19 HS | R/R | 5'11" | 190 | — | — | Tim Wilken | Randy Bush | 25.0 | +10.7 | 14.3±3.9 |
| 2011 | 10 | 1.10 | SDP | Cory Spangenberg | IF 2B | 20 COLL | L/R | 6'0" | 195 | — | — | Jaron Madison | Jed Hoyer | 3.9 | -10.9 | 14.8±3.8 |
| 2011 | 11 | 1.11 | HOU | George Springer | DH DH | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 220 | — | — | Bobby Heck | David Gottfried | 40.2 | +8.5 | 31.7±4.2 |
| 2011 | 12 | 1.12 | MIL | Taylor Jungmann | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'6" | 210 | — | — | Bruce Seid | Douglas Melvin | 1.7 | -6.2 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2011 | 13 | 1.13 | NYM | Brandon Nimmo | OF RF | 18 HS | L/R | 6'1" | 206 | — | — | Chad MacDonald | Sandy Alderson | 29.0 | +21.0 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2011 | 14 | 1.14 | MIA | José Fernández | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 240 | — | — | — | Larry Beinfest | 15.5 | +10.0 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2011 | 15 | 1.15 | MIL | Jed Bradley | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'3" | 225 | — | — | Bruce Seid | Douglas Melvin | 0.0 | -7.9 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2011 | 16 | 1.16 | LAD | Chris Reed | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'3" | 235 | — | — | — | Ned Colletti | 0.0 | -5.4 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2011 | 17 | 1.17 | ANA | C.J. Cron | IF 1B | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 235 | — | — | Ric Wilson | Jerry Dipoto | 9.7 | -1.1 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2011 | 18 | 1.18 | OAK | Sonny Gray | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 5'10" | 190 | — | — | Eric Kubota | Billy Beane | 38.6 | +33.1 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2011 | 19 | 1.19 | BOS | Matt Barnes | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 208 | — | — | Amiel Sawdaye | Theo Epstein | 5.2 | -0.3 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2011 | 20 | 1.20 | COL | Tyler Anderson | P P | 22 COLL | L/L | 6'2" | 220 | — | — | Bill Schmidt | Daniel O'Dowd | 14.1 | +8.7 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2011 | 21 | 1.21 | TOR | ✕ Tyler Beede | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 216 | — | — | Andrew Tinnish | Alex Anthopoulos | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2011 | 22 | 1.22 | STL | Kolten Wong | IF 2B | 21 COLL | L/R | 5'7" | 185 | — | — | Jeff Luhnow | John Mozeliak | 17.5 | +6.7 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2011 | 23 | 1.23 | WSN | Alex Meyer | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'9" | 225 | — | — | Kris Kline | Michael Rizzo | 1.0 | -4.4 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2011 | 24 | 1.24 | TBR | Taylor Guerrieri | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 225 | — | — | R J Harrison | Andrew Friedman | -0.1 | -5.6 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2011 | 25 | 1.25 | SDP | Joe Ross | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'4" | 243 | — | — | Jaron Madison | Jed Hoyer | 7.0 | +1.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2011 | 26 | 1.26 | BOS | Blake Swihart | C C | 19 HS | S/R | 6'0" | 185 | — | — | Amiel Sawdaye | Theo Epstein | 0.6 | -2.5 | 3.1±3.8 |
| 2011 | 27 | 1.27 | CIN | Robert Stephenson | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 205 | — | — | Chris Buckley | Walt Jocketty | 1.9 | -0.8 | 2.7±3.7 |
| 2011 | 28 | 1.28 | ATL | Sean Gilmartin | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'2" | 205 | — | — | Tony Demacio | Frank Wren | 0.1 | -3.0 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2011 | 29 | 1.29 | SFG | Joe Panik | IF 2B | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'1" | 205 | — | — | John Barr | Brian Sabean | 8.4 | +4.5 | 3.8±3.7 |
| 2011 | 30 | 1.30 | MIN | Levi Michael | IF 2B | 20 COLL | R/R | 5'10" | 180 | — | — | Deron Johnson | Bill Smith | 0.0 | -3.8 | 3.8±3.7 |
| 2011 | 31 | 1.31 | TBR | Mikie Mahtook | OF CF | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 220 | — | — | R J Harrison | Andrew Friedman | 1.2 | -2.6 | 3.8±3.7 |
| 2011 | 33 | 1.33 | TEX | Kevin Matthews | P P | 19 HS | R/L | 5'11" | 180 | — | — | Kip Fagg | Jon Daniels | 0.0 | -2.7 | 2.7±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.