RRosternomics
𝕏

Cardinals STL

‹ ›

GM: John Mozeliak

Overview

CONTEND → steady
expensive & winning · year 4 in this regime · payroll 1.22× league · TAB +4.5
+4.5TAB — talent above budget11th/30
+5.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)9th/30
10.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars6th/30
-5.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag15th/30
19%dead money %3rd/30
0.556win %8th/30
41.2roster fWAR8th/30
-16surplus $M (value vs cost)17th/30
$117Mpayroll $M8th/30

2011: World Series champions · 90–72. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFJon Jay 75GCorey Patterson 40GAllen Craig 5G
LFMatt Holliday 115GCorey Patterson 56GAllen Craig 26G
RFLance Berkman 110GJon Jay 56GSkip Schumaker 31G
SSRyan Theriot 91GRafael Furcal 85GTyler Greene 20G
2BSkip Schumaker 95GNick Punto 45GRyan Theriot 35G
3BDaniel Descalso 117GDavid Freese 88GNick Punto 7G
1BAlbert Pujols 146GLance Berkman 21GMark Hamilton 8G
STARTERSChris Carpenter 4.5WARJaime García 2.9WARKyle Lohse 2.3WAREdwin Jackson 0.9WARJake Westbrook 0.8WAR
CYadier Molina 137GGerald Laird 31GTony Cruz 20G
DHMatt Holliday 5GLance Berkman 2GMark Hamilton 2G
BULLPEN★ Fernando Salas 24svJason Motte 18hMarc Rzepczynski 18hArthur Rhodes 11hOctavio Dotel 9hEduardo Sanchez 7hMitchell Boggs 1hRyan Franklin 0h
CYadier Molina 137 · Gerald Laird 31 · Tony Cruz 20
1BAlbert Pujols 146 · Lance Berkman 21 · Mark Hamilton 8
2BSkip Schumaker 95 · Nick Punto 45 · Ryan Theriot 35
3BDaniel Descalso 117 · David Freese 88 · Nick Punto 7
SSRyan Theriot 91 · Rafael Furcal 85 · Tyler Greene 20
LFMatt Holliday 115 · Corey Patterson 56 · Allen Craig 26
CFJon Jay 75 · Corey Patterson 40 · Allen Craig 5
RFLance Berkman 110 · Jon Jay 56 · Skip Schumaker 31
DHMatt Holliday 5 · Lance Berkman 2 · Mark Hamilton 2
SPChris Carpenter 4.5 · Jaime García 2.9 · Kyle Lohse 2.3 · Edwin Jackson 0.9 · Jake Westbrook 0.8
BP★ Fernando Salas 24 · Jason Motte 18 · Marc Rzepczynski 18 · Arthur Rhodes 11 · Octavio Dotel 9 · Eduardo Sanchez 7 · Mitchell Boggs 1 · Ryan Franklin 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2011 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Yadier Molina 28 FA-elig 1395.4 5.3 +7.9
Lance Berkman 35 FA-elig 1454.7 8.0 +3.6
Chris Carpenter 36 FA-elig 344.5 14.3 -3.1
Matt Holliday 31 FA-elig 1244.4 16.3 -5.5
Albert Pujols 31 FA-elig 1473.9 14.5 -4.9
Jaime García 24 arb 322.9 0.4 +6.7
Jon Jay 26 pre-arb 1592.3 0.4 +5.2
Kyle Lohse 32 FA-elig 352.3 12.2 -6.5
Allen Craig 26 pre-arb 752.3 0.4 +5.1
David Freese 28 pre-arb 972.2 0.4 +5.1
Nick Punto 33 FA-elig 631.7 0.8 +3.5
Jason Motte 29 arb 781.4 0.4 +3.1
Colby Rasmus↔ TOR 24 pre-arb 941.0 0.3 +2.2
Fernando Salas 26 pre-arb 680.9 0.4 +1.7
Edwin Jackson↔ CHW 27 FA-elig 130.9 3.6 -1.4
Octavio Dotel↔ TOR 37 FA-elig 290.8 1.3 +0.7
Jake Westbrook 33 FA-elig 350.8 8.0 -6.1
Rafael Furcal↔ LAD 33 FA-elig 500.8 7.5 -5.6
Lance Lynn 24 – 180.5 0.3 +1.0
Daniel Descalso 24 pre-arb 1480.4 0.4 +0.6
Eduardo Sanchez 22 pre-arb 260.4 0.4 +0.5
Mitchell Boggs 27 arb 510.3 0.4 +0.4
Marc Rzepczynski↔ TOR 25 pre-arb 280.3 0.2 +0.6
Tony Cruz 24 – 380.3 0.4 +0.2
Skip Schumaker 31 FA-elig 1170.2 2.8 -2.3
Ryan Theriot 31 FA-elig 1320.2 3.3 -2.9
Pete Kozma 23 – 160.1 0.4 -0.2
Raul Valdes↔ NYY 33 – 70.1 – –
Tyler Greene 27 pre-arb 58-0.0 0.4 -0.4
Brandon Dickson 26 – 4-0.0 0.4 -0.5
Adron Chambers 24 – 18-0.0 0.4 -0.5
Bryan Augenstein 24 pre-arb 5-0.1 0.4 -0.6
P.J. Walters↔ TOR 26 – 4-0.1 – –
Gerald Laird 31 FA-elig 37-0.1 1.0 -1.3
Matt Carpenter 25 – 7-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Andrew Brown 26 – 11-0.1 0.4 -0.8
Shane Robinson 26 pre-arb 9-0.2 0.4 -0.8
Mark Hamilton 26 pre-arb 38-0.2 0.4 -0.8
Maikel Cleto 22 pre-arb 3-0.2 0.4 -0.9
Trever Miller↔ BOS 38 FA-elig 39-0.3 1.6 -2.3
Arthur Rhodes↔ TEX 41 FA-elig 19-0.3 1.5 -2.2
Corey Patterson↔ TOR 31 FA-elig 44-0.3 0.3 -1.0
Brian Tallet↔ TOR 33 FA-elig 18-0.5 0.7 -2.0
Miguel Batista↔ NYM 40 FA-elig 26-0.5 0.6 -1.8
Kyle McClellan 27 arb 44-0.8 1.4 -3.3
Ryan Franklin 38 FA-elig 21-1.2 3.2 -6.2

Key additions (new vs 2010)

PlayerfWAR
Lance Berkman4.7
Nick Punto1.7
Edwin Jackson0.9
Octavio Dotel0.8
Rafael Furcal0.8
Lance Lynn0.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2010)

Player2010 fWAR
Ryan Ludwick2.0
Brendan Ryan1.2
Brad Penny1.0
Matt Pagnozzi0.3
Jeff Suppan0.1
Steven Hill0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2011 payroll
$116.7M

What the front office was committed to as of 2011, 2011–2017. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Matt Holliday317.000$16.3M$17.0M$17.0M$17.0M$17.0M$17.0MFREE AGENT
Albert Pujols3110.000$14.5MFREE AGENT
Chris Carpenter3614.000$14.3M$10.5MFREE AGENT
Kyle Lohse329.092$12.2M$11.9MFREE AGENT
Jake Westbrook3312.144$8.0M$8.5M$8.8MFREE AGENT
Lance Berkman3511.052$8.0M$12.0MFREE AGENT
Rafael Furcal3311.000$7.5M$6.0MFREE AGENT
Yadier Molina286.123$5.3M$7.0M$14.0M$15.0M$15.0M$14.0M$14.0M
Ryan Franklin3812.000$3.2MFREE AGENT
Trever Miller3810.095$1.6MFREE AGENT
Arthur Rhodes4120.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Octavio Dotel3711.113$1.3MFREE AGENT
Gerald Laird316.007$1.0MFREE AGENT
Nick Punto338.051$750kFREE AGENT
Miguel Batista4013.045$557kFREE AGENT
Corey Patterson318.083$298kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (5)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Edwin Jackson275.070$3.6MFREE AGENT
Ryan Theriot314.118$3.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Skip Schumaker314.051$2.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle McClellan273.000$1.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Tallet335.146$711kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (25)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Jaime García242.047$437kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Motte292.027$435kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mitchell Boggs271.125$431kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Freese281.028$416kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jon Jay260.134$416kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Greene270.163$416kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pete Kozma230.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Augenstein242.000$414kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Maikel Cleto220.169$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Hamilton260.080$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shane Robinson260.014$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Salas260.087$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eduardo Sanchez221.047$414kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Cruz240.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Allen Craig260.077$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Dickson260.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adron Chambers240.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Brown260.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Descalso240.016$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Colby Rasmus242.000$323kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lance Lynn240.000$269kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marc Rzepczynski251.036$169kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Carpenter250.000$27kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Raul Valdes331.085—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
P.J. Walters260.114—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cardinals 2011; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

'; return; } const s=sm(raw,w),n=s.length,X=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[1]*100)/100),Y=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[2]*10)/10),yr=s.map(d=>d[0]); let xa=Math.min(1,...X),xb=Math.max(1,...X),ya=Math.min(0,...Y),yb=Math.max(0,...Y); const px=(xb-xa)*.12+.04,py=(yb-ya)*.12+1.5;xa-=px;xb+=px;ya-=py;yb+=py; const k=Math.max(0,n-3), ann=[]; [['WINDOW','#15b6a0',xa<1&&yb>0,xa,yb,'left','top'],['CONTEND','#2f7ed8',xb>1&&yb>0,xb,yb,'right','top'], ['FORCED-SPEND','#ec5a3c',xb>1&&ya<0,xb,ya,'right','bottom'],['REBUILD','#f0a91c',xa<1&&ya<0,xa,ya,'left','bottom']].forEach(q=>{ if(q[2]) ann.push({x:q[3],y:q[4],xref:'x',yref:'y',text:q[0],showarrow:false,xanchor:q[5],yanchor:q[6],font:{size:10,color:q[1]},opacity:.85});}); ann.push({x:X[n-1],y:Y[n-1],ax:X[n-1]-0.5*(X[n-1]-X[k]),ay:Y[n-1]-0.5*(Y[n-1]-Y[k]),xref:'x',yref:'y',axref:'x',ayref:'y',showarrow:true,arrowhead:2,arrowsize:1.3,arrowwidth:1.7,arrowcolor:dirc,text:''}); Plotly.newPlot('orbit',[{x:X,y:Y,mode:'lines+markers',line:{color:col,width:2.6,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.7}, marker:{color:col,size:s.map((d,i)=>5+7*(i/Math.max(1,n-1))),line:{color:dark?'#1b1e23':'#fff',width:0.6}}, text:yr,hovertemplate:'%{text}
payroll %{x:.2f}× lg · TAB %{y:+.1f}
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'STL',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});