Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 1 | 1.1 | HOU | Mark Appel | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 220 | — | — | Mike Elias | Jeff Luhnow | 0.1 | -17.7 | 19.6±3.8 |
| 2013 | 2 | 1.2 | CHC | Kris Bryant | DH DH | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 240 | — | — | Jaron Madison | Theo Epstein | 29.2 | +6.7 | 31.7±3.7 |
| 2013 | 3 | 1.3 | COL | Jon Gray | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 225 | — | — | Bill Schmidt | Daniel O'Dowd | 19.4 | +8.5 | 9.8±3.9 |
| 2013 | 4 | 1.4 | MIN | Kohl Stewart | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 200 | — | — | Deron Johnson | Terry Ryan | 0.2 | -9.0 | 9.9±4.1 |
| 2013 | 5 | 1.5 | CLE | Clint Frazier | OF LF | 19 HS | R/R | 5'11" | 212 | — | — | Brad Grant | Mark Shapiro | 0.1 | -6.7 | 8.0±4.1 |
| 2013 | 6 | 1.6 | MIA | Colin Moran | IF 3B | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'4" | 225 | — | — | — | Larry Beinfest | 1.6 | -11.2 | 14.8±4.0 |
| 2013 | 7 | 1.7 | BOS | Trey Ball | OF OF | 19 HS | L/L | 6'6" | 185 | — | — | Amiel Sawdaye | Ben Cherington | 0.0 | -6.8 | 8.0±3.9 |
| 2013 | 8 | 1.8 | KCR | Hunter Dozier | IF 1B | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 220 | — | — | Lonnie Goldberg | Dayton Moore | 0.7 | -12.1 | 14.8±3.8 |
| 2013 | 9 | 1.9 | PIT | Austin Meadows | OF LF | 18 HS | L/L | 6'3" | 225 | — | — | Joe Dellicarri | Neal Huntington | 6.1 | -0.8 | 8.0±3.8 |
| 2013 | 10 | 1.10 | TOR | ✕ Phil Bickford | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'4" | 200 | — | — | Brian Parker | Alex Anthopoulos | 0.0 | -5.3 | 5.8±3.8 |
| 2013 | 11 | 1.11 | NYM | Dominic Smith | DH DH | 18 HS | L/L | 5'11" | 224 | — | — | Marc Tramuta | Sandy Alderson | 1.0 | -17.3 | 31.7±4.2 |
| 2013 | 12 | 1.12 | SEA | D.J. Peterson | IF 1B | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 210 | — | — | Tom McNamara | Jack Zduriencik | 0.0 | -9.9 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2013 | 13 | 1.13 | SDP | Hunter Renfroe | OF RF | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 230 | — | — | Billy Gasparino | Josh Byrnes | 9.3 | +4.7 | 4.4±3.8 |
| 2013 | 14 | 1.14 | PIT | Reese McGuire | C C | 18 HS | L/R | 6'0" | 230 | — | — | Joe Dellicarri | Neal Huntington | 4.9 | +1.7 | 3.6±4.1 |
| 2013 | 15 | 1.15 | ARI | Braden Shipley | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 190 | — | — | Ray Montgomery | Kevin Towers | -0.8 | -8.2 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2013 | 16 | 1.16 | PHI | J.P. Crawford | IF SS | 18 HS | L/R | 6'0" | 202 | — | — | Marti Wolever | Ruben Amaro | 18.4 | +13.6 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2013 | 17 | 1.17 | CHW | Tim Anderson | IF SS | 20 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 185 | — | — | Nick Hostetler | Kenny Williams | 17.7 | +7.8 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2013 | 18 | 1.18 | LAD | Chris Anderson | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 245 | — | — | Logan White | Ned Colletti | 0.0 | -5.4 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2013 | 19 | 1.19 | STL | Marco Gonzales | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'1" | 205 | — | — | Dan Kantrovitz | John Mozeliak | 10.5 | +5.0 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2013 | 20 | 1.20 | DET | Jonathon Crawford | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 205 | — | — | Scott Pleis | Dave Dombrowski | 0.0 | -5.4 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2013 | 21 | 1.21 | TBR | Nick Ciuffo | C C | 18 HS | L/R | 5'11" | 205 | — | — | R J Harrison | Andrew Friedman | -0.2 | -3.5 | 3.6±3.9 |
| 2013 | 22 | 1.22 | BAL | Hunter Harvey | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 233 | — | — | Gary Rajsich | Dan Duquette | 3.4 | -1.7 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2013 | 23 | 1.23 | TEX | Chi Chi González | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 210 | — | — | Kip Fagg | Jon Daniels | 0.3 | -5.1 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2013 | 24 | 1.24 | OAK | Billy McKinney | OF LF | 19 HS | L/L | 6'0" | 205 | — | — | Eric Kubota | Billy Beane | -0.6 | -7.5 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2013 | 25 | 1.25 | SFG | Christian Arroyo | IF 2B | 18 HS | R/R | 6'0" | 220 | — | — | — | Brian Sabean | 0.5 | -4.3 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2013 | 26 | 1.26 | NYY | Eric Jagielo | IF 3B | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'3" | 210 | — | — | Damon Oppenheimer | Brian Cashman | 0.0 | -3.7 | 3.8±3.7 |
| 2013 | 27 | 1.27 | CIN | Phillip Ervin | OF LF | 21 COLL | R/R | 5'10" | 207 | — | — | Chris Buckley | Walt Jocketty | 1.1 | -3.6 | 3.8±3.7 |
| 2013 | 28 | 1.28 | STL | Rob Kaminsky | P P | 19 HS | R/L | 6'0" | 195 | — | — | Dan Kantrovitz | John Mozeliak | 0.0 | -2.6 | 2.7±3.7 |
| 2013 | 29 | 1.29 | TBR | Ryne Stanek | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 226 | — | — | R J Harrison | Andrew Friedman | 2.8 | +0.1 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2013 | 30 | 1.30 | TEX | Travis Demeritte | IF 2B | 19 HS | R/R | 6'0" | 180 | — | — | Kip Fagg | Jon Daniels | -1.4 | -4.1 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2013 | 31 | 1.31 | ATL | Jason Hursh | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 210 | — | — | Tony Demacio | Frank Wren | -0.0 | -2.8 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2013 | 32 | 1.32 | NYY | Aaron Judge | OF RF | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'7" | 282 | — | — | Damon Oppenheimer | Brian Cashman | 63.8 | +59.1 | 3.8±3.7 |
| 2013 | 33 | 1.33 | NYY | Ian Clarkin | P P | 18 HS | L/L | 6'2" | 215 | — | — | Damon Oppenheimer | Brian Cashman | 0.0 | -2.7 | 2.7±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.