RRosternomics
𝕏

Guardians CLE

‹ ›

President of baseball ops: Mark Shapiro · GM: Chris Antonetti

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.79× league · TAB +8.4
+8.4TAB — talent above budget7th/30
+13.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)6th/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars6th/30
-4.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag8th/30
38%dead money %20th/30
0.568win %7th/30
39.8roster fWAR10th/30
+25surplus $M (value vs cost)5th/30
$82Mpayroll $M18th/30

2013: made playoffs · 92–70. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFMichael Bourn 128GDrew Stubbs 43GMichael Brantley 1G
LFMichael Brantley 151GJason Kubel 56GRyan Raburn 13G
RFDrew Stubbs 105GRyan Raburn 54GNick Swisher 27G
SSAsdrúbal Cabrera 129GMike Aviles 46GJosé Ramírez 2G
2BJason Kipnis 147GMike Aviles 12GJosé Ramírez 5G
3BLonnie Chisenhall 88GMike Aviles 56GJosé Ramírez 2G
1BNick Swisher 112GCarlos Santana 29GYan Gomes 1G
STARTERSJustin Masterson 3.8WARUbaldo Jiménez 3.5WARCorey Kluber 2.9WARScott Kazmir 2.6WARZach McAllister 1.5WAR
CYan Gomes 85GCarlos Santana 84GKelly Shoppach 36G
DHJason Giambi 56GCarlos Santana 47GMark Reynolds 19G
BULLPEN★ Chris Perez 25svJoe Smith 25hRich Hill 13hBryan Shaw 12hCody Allen 11hMarc Rzepczynski 6hVinnie Pestano 6hMatt Albers 1h
CYan Gomes 85 · Carlos Santana 84 · Kelly Shoppach 36
1BNick Swisher 112 · Carlos Santana 29 · Yan Gomes 1
2BJason Kipnis 147 · Mike Aviles 12 · José Ramírez 5
3BLonnie Chisenhall 88 · Mike Aviles 56 · José Ramírez 2
SSAsdrúbal Cabrera 129 · Mike Aviles 46 · José Ramírez 2
LFMichael Brantley 151 · Jason Kubel 56 · Ryan Raburn 13
CFMichael Bourn 128 · Drew Stubbs 43 · Michael Brantley 1
RFDrew Stubbs 105 · Ryan Raburn 54 · Nick Swisher 27
DHJason Giambi 56 · Carlos Santana 47 · Mark Reynolds 19
SPJustin Masterson 3.8 · Ubaldo Jiménez 3.5 · Corey Kluber 2.9 · Scott Kazmir 2.6 · Zach McAllister 1.5
BP★ Chris Perez 25 · Joe Smith 25 · Rich Hill 13 · Bryan Shaw 12 · Cody Allen 11 · Marc Rzepczynski 6 · Vinnie Pestano 6 · Matt Albers 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2013 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Jason Kipnis 26 pre-arb 1495.1 0.5 +13.1
Yan Gomes 25 pre-arb 884.4 0.5 +11.4
Justin Masterson 28 arb 323.8 5.7 +4.5
Ubaldo Jiménez 29 FA-elig 323.5 5.8 +3.7
Corey Kluber 27 pre-arb 262.9 0.5 +7.3
Carlos Santana 27 arb 1542.7 0.6 +6.6
Scott Kazmir 29 FA-elig 292.6 2.8 +4.2
Ryan Raburn 32 FA-elig 872.2 1.0 +5.0
Nick Swisher 32 FA-elig 1452.0 11.0 -5.5
Michael Brantley 26 arb 1511.9 0.5 +4.5
Michael Bourn 30 FA-elig 1301.7 7.0 -2.4
Zach McAllister 25 pre-arb 241.5 0.5 +3.6
Asdrúbal Cabrera 27 FA-elig 1361.3 6.5 -2.9
Danny Salazar 23 – 101.2 0.1 +3.0
Drew Stubbs 28 arb 1461.1 2.8 +0.2
Cody Allen 24 pre-arb 771.1 0.5 +2.4
Bryan Shaw 25 pre-arb 701.0 0.5 +2.3
Lonnie Chisenhall 24 pre-arb 940.6 0.5 +1.1
Matt Carson 31 pre-arb 200.6 0.1 +1.5
Joe Smith 29 FA-elig 700.5 3.1 -1.7
Mike Aviles 32 arb 1240.3 2.2 -1.3
Matt Albers 30 FA-elig 560.3 1.8 -0.9
Carlos Carrasco 26 arb 150.2 0.5 +0.1
Marc Rzepczynski↔ STL 27 arb 270.2 0.8 -0.2
José Ramírez 20 – 150.2 0.1 +0.5
Mark Reynolds↔ NYY 29 FA-elig 990.2 4.4 -3.9
Rich Hill 33 FA-elig 630.2 1.0 -0.6
Joe Martinez 30 – 20.1 – –
David Huff↔ NYY 28 arb 30.1 0.1 +0.1
Lou Marson 27 arb 30.0 1.0 -0.9
C.C. Lee 26 – 80.0 0.1 -0.1
Josh Tomlin 28 arb 10.0 0.5 -0.5
Ezequiel Carrera↔ PHI 26 – 2-0.0 – –
Preston Guilmet 25 – 4-0.0 0.2 -0.3
Clay Rapada 32 – 4-0.0 – –
Matt Langwell↔ ARI 27 – 5-0.0 – –
Omir Santos 32 – 1-0.0 – –
Blake Wood 27 arb 2-0.0 0.6 -0.7
Kelly Shoppach↔ SEA 33 FA-elig 1-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Jason Kubel↔ ARI 31 FA-elig 8-0.1 0.6 -0.8
Nick Hagadone 27 pre-arb 36-0.2 0.5 -0.9
Scott Barnes 25 pre-arb 6-0.2 0.0 -0.5
John McDonald↔ BOS 38 – 8-0.2 0.1 -0.6
Cord Phelps 26 pre-arb 4-0.3 0.1 -1.0
Trevor Bauer 22 pre-arb 4-0.4 1.2 -2.1
Vinnie Pestano 28 arb 37-0.4 0.5 -1.5
Brett Myers 32 FA-elig 4-0.6 7.0 -8.7
Jason Giambi 42 FA-elig 71-0.7 0.8 -2.6
Chris Perez 27 arb 54-0.8 7.3 -9.5

Key additions (new vs 2012)

PlayerfWAR
Yan Gomes4.4
Scott Kazmir2.6
Ryan Raburn2.2
Nick Swisher2.0
Michael Bourn1.7
Danny Salazar1.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2012)

Player2012 fWAR
Derek Lowe1.2
Esmil Rogers0.9
Chris Seddon0.4
Jeremy Accardo0.1
Tony Sipp0.0
Jack Hannahan0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2013 payroll
$81.8M

What the front office was committed to as of 2013, 2013–2019. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Nick Swisher328.031$11.0M$15.0M$9.1MFREE AGENT
Michael Bourn306.028$7.0M$13.5M$9.1MFREE AGENT
Brett Myers3210.068$7.0MFREE AGENT
Scott Kazmir296.119$2.8MFREE AGENT
Jason Giambi4217.082$750k$1.0MFREE AGENT
Jason Kubel318.009$619kFREE AGENT
Danny Salazar237.162$147k$501k$469k$536k$3.4MFREE AGENT$4.5M
John McDonald3811.118$92kFREE AGENT
Kelly Shoppach338.000$42kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Chris Perez274.136$7.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Asdrúbal Cabrera275.027$6.5MFREE AGENT
Ubaldo Jiménez295.087$5.8MFREE AGENT
Justin Masterson284.108$5.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Reynolds295.138$4.4MFREE AGENT
Joe Smith295.091$3.1MFREE AGENT
Drew Stubbs283.047$2.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Aviles324.091$2.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Albers305.141$1.8MFREE AGENT
Lou Marson273.036$1.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rich Hill335.037$1.0MFREE AGENT
Ryan Raburn325.109$1.0MFREE AGENT
Marc Rzepczynski273.036$782kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Hagadone273.056$492kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (26)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Trevor Bauer220.021$1.2MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Wood272.145$560kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Santana272.115$550kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Brantley262.131$527kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Kipnis261.069$509kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vinnie Pestano282.011$502kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Tomlin282.069$502kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Shaw251.081$502kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach McAllister250.124$496kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lonnie Chisenhall241.051$493kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Allen240.076$493kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Corey Kluber270.074$492kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Carrasco262.067$490kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yan Gomes250.083$458kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Preston Guilmet250.000$228kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cord Phelps260.095$107kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Huff281.166$106kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
C.C. Lee260.000$104kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Carson310.159$88kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Ramírez200.000$76kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Barnes250.065$38kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Omir Santos32–—
Clay Rapada322.127—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Martinez302.071—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ezequiel Carrera261.082—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Langwell27–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Guardians 2013; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'CLE',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});