RRosternomics
𝕏

Reds CIN

‹ ›

GM: Walt Jocketty

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.0× league · TAB +6.1
+6.1TAB — talent above budget10th/30
+8.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)8th/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars9th/30
-5.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag16th/30
18%dead money %3rd/30
0.556win %11th/30
40.4roster fWAR9th/30
+5surplus $M (value vs cost)11th/30
$104Mpayroll $M12th/30

2013: made playoffs · 90–72. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFShin-Soo Choo 150GDerrick Robinson 15GBilly Hamilton 7G
LFChris Heisey 69GDerrick Robinson 60GXavier Paul 59G
RFJay Bruce 160GChris Heisey 6GDerrick Robinson 2G
SSZack Cozart 150GCésar Izturis 29G
2BBrandon Phillips 151GCésar Izturis 21GHenry Alejandro Rodriguez 3G
3BTodd Frazier 147GJack Hannahan 37GCésar Izturis 1G
1BJoey Votto 161GJack Hannahan 10GNeftali Soto 5G
STARTERSMat Latos 4.9WARHomer Bailey 4.2WARMike Leake 2.6WARTony Cingrani 1.9WARJohnny Cueto 0.7WAR
CDevin Mesoraco 97GRyan Hanigan 72GCorky Miller 16G
DHChris Heisey 4GXavier Paul 4GRyan Ludwick 2G
BULLPEN★ Aroldis Chapman 38svSam LeCure 17hManny Parra 16hJ.J. Hoover 13hJonathan Broxton 12hAlfredo Simon 7hLogan Ondrusek 5hZach Duke 1h
CDevin Mesoraco 97 · Ryan Hanigan 72 · Corky Miller 16
1BJoey Votto 161 · Jack Hannahan 10 · Neftali Soto 5
2BBrandon Phillips 151 · César Izturis 21 · Henry Alejandro Rodriguez 3
3BTodd Frazier 147 · Jack Hannahan 37 · César Izturis 1
SSZack Cozart 150 · César Izturis 29
LFChris Heisey 69 · Derrick Robinson 60 · Xavier Paul 59
CFShin-Soo Choo 150 · Derrick Robinson 15 · Billy Hamilton 7
RFJay Bruce 160 · Chris Heisey 6 · Derrick Robinson 2
DHChris Heisey 4 · Xavier Paul 4 · Ryan Ludwick 2
SPMat Latos 4.9 · Homer Bailey 4.2 · Mike Leake 2.6 · Tony Cingrani 1.9 · Johnny Cueto 0.7
BP★ Aroldis Chapman 38 · Sam LeCure 17 · Manny Parra 16 · J.J. Hoover 13 · Jonathan Broxton 12 · Alfredo Simon 7 · Logan Ondrusek 5 · Zach Duke 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2013 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Shin-Soo Choo 30 FA-elig 1546.4 7.4 +9.9
Joey Votto 29 FA-elig 1625.7 17.0 -1.8
Mat Latos 25 arb 324.9 4.2 +8.9
Homer Bailey 27 FA-elig 324.2 5.3 +6.0
Jay Bruce 26 arb 1604.0 7.5 +3.3
Todd Frazier 27 pre-arb 1502.9 0.5 +7.4
Brandon Phillips 32 FA-elig 1512.7 10.0 -2.8
Mike Leake 25 arb 312.6 3.1 +4.0
Tony Cingrani 23 pre-arb 241.9 0.5 +4.6
Aroldis Chapman 25 arb 681.8 2.0 +2.8
Zack Cozart 27 pre-arb 1511.6 0.5 +3.6
Sam LeCure 29 arb 631.0 0.5 +2.1
Chris Heisey 28 arb 870.8 1.3 +0.9
J.J. Hoover 25 pre-arb 690.8 0.5 +1.6
Johnny Cueto 27 arb 110.7 7.4 -5.6
Manny Parra 30 FA-elig 570.7 1.0 +0.8
Billy Hamilton 22 – 130.6 0.1 +1.6
Bronson Arroyo 36 FA-elig 320.6 16.4 -14.9
Ryan Hanigan 32 FA-elig 750.4 2.0 -1.1
Sean Marshall 30 FA-elig 160.3 4.5 -3.6
Corky Miller 37 arb 170.3 0.3 +0.6
Zach Duke↔ WSN 30 FA-elig 140.2 0.4 +0.1
Derrick Robinson 25 pre-arb 1020.1 0.4 -0.1
Logan Ondrusek 28 arb 520.1 0.9 -0.7
Alfredo Simon 32 arb 630.1 0.9 -0.7
Xavier Paul 28 arb 970.0 0.5 -0.5
Greg Reynolds 27 – 6-0.0 – –
Justin Freeman 26 – 1-0.1 – –
Donald Lutz 24 pre-arb 34-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Nick Christiani 25 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Henry Alejandro Rodriguez 23 – 9-0.1 – –
Cesar Izturis 33 FA-elig 63-0.2 0.8 -1.3
Jack Hannahan 33 FA-elig 83-0.3 1.0 -1.7
Neftali Soto 24 pre-arb 13-0.3 0.1 -0.9
Jonathan Broxton 29 FA-elig 34-0.3 4.0 -4.8
Pedro Villarreal 25 pre-arb 2-0.4 0.0 -1.0
Curtis Partch 26 pre-arb 14-0.9 0.2 -2.8
Ryan Ludwick 34 FA-elig 38-1.0 2.0 -4.7
Devin Mesoraco 25 pre-arb 103-1.2 0.5 -3.8

Key additions (new vs 2012)

PlayerfWAR
Shin-Soo Choo6.4
Manny Parra0.7
Billy Hamilton0.6
Corky Miller0.3
Zach Duke0.2
Derrick Robinson0.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2012)

Player2012 fWAR
Drew Stubbs1.3
Scott Rolen0.8
Dioner Navarro0.5
Didi Gregorius0.1
Denis Phipps0.1
Kristopher Negrón0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2013 payroll
$104.2M

What the front office was committed to as of 2013, 2013–2019. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Bronson Arroyo3610.150$16.4MFREE AGENT$535k
Brandon Phillips328.022$10.0M$11.0M$12.0M$13.0MFREE AGENT
Sean Marshall306.088$4.5M$5.5MFREE AGENT
Jonathan Broxton297.020$4.0M$5.8MFREE AGENT
Ryan Ludwick347.109$2.0M$8.5MFREE AGENT
Cesar Izturis3311.042$800kFREE AGENT
Zach Duke306.125$377kFREE AGENT$2.0M

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Joey Votto295.027$17.0MFREE AGENT
Jay Bruce264.125$7.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Johnny Cueto275.000$7.4MFREE AGENT
Shin-Soo Choo305.119$7.4MFREE AGENT
Homer Bailey274.017$5.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Mat Latos253.079$4.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Leake253.000$3.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Hanigan324.077$2.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jack Hannahan334.065$1.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Manny Parra305.063$1.0MFREE AGENT
Alfredo Simon323.142$890kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Corky Miller374.009$273kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (20)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Aroldis Chapman252.034$2.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Heisey282.157$1.3MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Ondrusek282.144$950kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zack Cozart271.084$528kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Todd Frazier271.071$528kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam LeCure292.072$510kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Xavier Paul282.119$505kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Devin Mesoraco251.028$498kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.J. Hoover250.102$492kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Cingrani230.030$490kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Derrick Robinson250.160$431kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Curtis Partch260.130$230kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Donald Lutz240.134$155kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Neftali Soto240.100$99kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Christiani250.039$96kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Billy Hamilton220.000$78kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Villarreal251.034$19kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Greg Reynolds27–—
Henry Alejandro Rodriguez23–—
Justin Freeman26–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Reds 2013; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

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payroll %{x:.2f}× lg · TAB %{y:+.1f}
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'CIN',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});