Overview
Titles0
Pennants0
Playoffs0
Record427–601
Win %0.415
3.0Depth — 2+ WAR regulars per season (the breadth that drives TAB, not stars)189th/195 execs
-6.7Dead WAR — WAR/yr bled by sub-replacement players (closer to 0 = better)170th/195 execs
49%Dead money — payroll on <0.5-WAR players (lower = better)179th/195 execs
$20MCheap-talent surplus — $/yr of value from cost-controlled (pre-arb/arb) players above their pay; the selection engine, and the stickiest GM skill we track69th/195 execs
$5MDrafted surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own draftees (the develop-from-the-draft engine)105th/195 execs
$16MTraded-for surplus — cheap-talent surplus from cost-controlled players he acquired via trade26th/195 execs
$-0MInt'l surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own international signees177th/195 execs
-82.8TAB — talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation), tenure total193rd/195 execs
-84.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + the non-repeatable luck of converting talent to wins)194th/195 execs
0.97Acquisition Leverage — playoff pts per acquired WAR, graded once in the year each deal's wins arrive (the repeatable decision skill)129th/195 execs
Tenure breakdown
| Team | Role | Years | Szns | WAB | WAB/yr | TAB | WAR surp | HG | Trade | FA | R5 | AcqLev | W-L% | PO | Pen | WS | Surp $M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
▸  Tigers |
GM | 2016–2022 | 6 | -84.7 | -14.11 | -82.8 | -122.3 | +53.3 | -19.7 | +1.8 | +2.4 | 0.97 | 0.415 | – | – | – | -438 |
| Career total (1985+ data) | 7 | -84.7 | -82.8 | -122.3 | +53.3 | -19.7 | +1.8 | +2.4 | 0.97 | 0.415 | – | – | – | -438 | |||
Roster Construction
Build channels — net fWAR
Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.
Home-grown (draft/intl)+53.3
Trade-19.7
Free agency+1.8
Rule 5 / minor draft+2.4
Sourcing mix: 62% draft · 32% FA · 3% trade · 3% R5
Roster value distribution — career average — depth vs. stars
Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR, averaged across Al Avila's seasons. Bars = his rosters; the black line = the league-average player at each slot. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge.
Players acquired — 110 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)
| Player | Pos | Team | How | Year | Szns | fWAR | WAR/yr | Lev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal | P | DET |
Draft | 2018 | 6 | +21.9 | +3.7 | – |
| Riley Greene | OF | DET |
Draft | 2022 | 5 | +12.8 | +2.6 | – |
| Jeimer Candelario | 3B | DET |
Trade | 2017 | 6 | +8.7 | +1.4 | 0.2 |
| Casey Mize | P | DET |
Draft | 2018 | 5 | +7.6 | +1.5 | – |
| Niko Goodrum | 2B/SS | DET |
Free agency | 2017 | 4 | +6.3 | +1.6 | 0.0 |
| Kerry Carpenter | DH/OF | DET |
Draft | 2022 | 4 | +5.8 | +1.4 | – |
| Jake Rogers | C | DET |
Trade | 2017 | 4 | +5.2 | +1.3 | – |
| Jordan Zimmermann | P | DET |
Trade | 2016 | 5 | +5.0 | +1.0 | 5.7 |
| Jonathan Schoop | 2B | DET |
Free agency | 2019 | 3 | +4.7 | +1.6 | 1.6 |
| Eduardo Rodríguez | P | DET |
Free agency | 2021 | 2 | +3.7 | +1.9 | 0.0 |
| Javier Báez | SS | DET |
Free agency | 2021 | 3 | +3.3 | +1.1 | 0.0 |
| Spencer Torkelson | 1B | DET |
Draft | 2022 | 3 | +2.8 | +0.9 | – |
| Matt Manning | P | DET |
Draft | 2016 | 4 | +2.7 | +0.7 | – |
| Jason Foley | P | DET |
Intl FA | 2016 | 3 | +2.6 | +0.9 | – |
| Robbie Grossman | OF | DET |
Free agency | 2021 | 1 | +2.6 | +2.6 | 0.2 |
| Justin Wilson | P | DET |
Trade | 2016 | 2 | +2.1 | +1.0 | 4.5 |
| Willi Castro | 2B/OF | DET |
Trade | 2018 | 3 | +2.0 | +0.7 | – |
| Akil Baddoo | OF | DET |
Rule 5 | 2020 | 3 | +1.9 | +0.6 | – |
| Justin Upton | OF | DET |
Free agency | 2016 | 2 | +1.7 | +0.8 | 6.7 |
| José Cisnero | P | DET |
Free agency | 2018 | 5 | +1.6 | +0.3 | 0.0 |
| Víctor Reyes | OF | DET |
Rule 5 | 2017 | 3 | +1.4 | +0.5 | – |
| Leonys Martín | OF | DET |
Trade | 2018 | 1 | +1.3 | +1.3 | 0.0 |
| Mike Fiers | P | DET |
Trade | 2018 | 1 | +1.3 | +1.3 | 0.0 |
| Eric Haase | C | DET |
Trade | 2021 | 2 | +1.1 | +0.5 | 0.1 |
| Jordy Mercer | SS | DET |
Free agency | 2018 | 1 | +1.0 | +1.0 | 0.0 |
| Matt Boyd | P | DET |
Free agency | 2022 | 6 | +0.9 | +0.2 | 4.3 |
| Andrew Chafin | P | DET |
Free agency | 2022 | 2 | +0.9 | +0.5 | 0.0 |
| Alex Lange | P | DET |
Trade | 2019 | 4 | +0.9 | +0.2 | – |
| Mikie Mahtook | OF | DET |
Trade | 2017 | 1 | +0.7 | +0.7 | 0.4 |
| Wily Peralta | P | DET |
Free agency | 2021 | 2 | +0.7 | +0.4 | 0.0 |
| Beau Brieske | P | DET |
Draft | 2022 | 3 | +0.6 | +0.2 | – |
| Mike Pelfrey | P | DET |
Trade | 2016 | 1 | +0.6 | +0.6 | 2.3 |
| Dustin Garneau | C | DET |
Free agency | 2020 | 2 | +0.5 | +0.3 | 0.0 |
| Matt Moore | P | DET |
Free agency | 2018 | 1 | +0.5 | +0.5 | 0.0 |
| C. J. Cron | 1B | DET |
Free agency | 2019 | 1 | +0.4 | +0.4 | 0.5 |
| Miguel Díaz | P | DET |
Free agency | 2022 | 2 | +0.4 | +0.2 | 0.0 |
| Alex Faedo | P | DET |
Draft | 2022 | 2 | +0.4 | +0.2 | – |
| Francisco Liriano | P | DET |
Free agency | 2018 | 1 | +0.4 | +0.4 | 0.0 |
| Alex Presley | OF | DET |
Free agency | 2016 | 1 | +0.4 | +0.4 | 0.1 |
| Daniel Stumpf | P | DET |
Trade | 2017 | 2 | +0.4 | +0.2 | 0.0 |
| Derek Holland | P | DET |
Free agency | 2021 | 1 | +0.3 | +0.3 | 0.0 |
| Nick Ramirez | P | DET |
Trade | 2019 | 1 | +0.3 | +0.3 | – |
| José Ureña | P | DET |
Free agency | 2020 | 1 | +0.3 | +0.3 | 0.0 |
| Tucker Barnhart | C | DET |
Trade | 2022 | 1 | +0.3 | +0.3 | 0.0 |
| Sawyer Gipson-Long | P | DET |
Trade | 2022 | 1 | +0.2 | +0.2 | – |
| Drew Hutchison | P | DET |
Free agency | 2021 | 2 | +0.2 | +0.1 | 0.0 |
| Pete Kozma | SS | DET |
Free agency | 2018 | 1 | +0.2 | +0.2 | 0.0 |
| Erick Aybar | SS | DET |
Trade | 2016 | 1 | +0.2 | +0.2 | 0.7 |
| Luis Castillo | P | DET |
Draft | 2022 | 1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | – |
| Louis Coleman | P | DET |
Free agency | 2018 | 1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | 0.0 |
| Miguel Del Pozo | P | DET |
Free agency | 2021 | 1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | 0.0 |
| Kyle Funkhouser | P | DET |
Draft | 2016 | 1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | – |
| Ian Krol | P | DET |
Free agency | 2020 | 1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | 0.0 |
| Dustin Molleken | P | DET |
Trade | 2016 | 1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | – |
| Efren Navarro | 1B/OF | DET |
Free agency | 2017 | 1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | 0.0 |
| John Schreiber | P | DET |
Draft | 2016 | 2 | +0.1 | +0.1 | – |
| Jim Adduci | 1B/OF | DET |
Free agency | 2016 | 1 | +0.0 | +0.0 | 0.1 |
| Jorge Bonifacio | OF | DET |
Free agency | 2019 | – | -0.0 | – | – |
| William Cuevas | P | DET |
Free agency | 2016 | – | -0.0 | – | – |
| Matt den Dekker | OF | DET |
Free agency | 2017 | 1 | +0.0 | +0.0 | 0.0 |
| Arcenio León | P | DET |
Trade | 2017 | – | -0.0 | – | – |
| Erasmo Ramírez | P | DET |
Free agency | 2021 | 1 | +0.0 | +0.0 | 0.0 |
| Julio Teherán | P | DET |
Free agency | 2021 | – | -0.0 | – | – |
| Carlos Torres | P | DET |
Free agency | 2019 | – | -0.0 | – | – |
| Joey Wentz | P | DET |
Draft | 2022 | 1 | -0.0 | -0.0 | – |
| Francisco Rodríguez | P | DET |
Trade | 2016 | 1 | -0.0 | -0.0 | 2.8 |
| Logan Kensing | P | DET |
Trade | 2016 | 1 | +0.0 | +0.0 | 0.1 |
| Zach McAllister | P | DET |
Trade | 2018 | 1 | +0.0 | +0.0 | 0.0 |
| Josh Smoker | P | DET |
Trade | 2018 | 1 | +0.0 | +0.0 | 0.0 |
| Trevor Rosenthal | P | DET |
Trade | 2019 | 1 | +0.0 | +0.0 | 0.0 |
| Carson Fulmer | P | DET |
Trade | 2020 | 1 | +0.0 | +0.0 | 0.0 |
| Brandon Dixon | 1B/OF | DET |
Trade | 2019 | 1 | +0.0 | +0.0 | 0.0 |
| Sergio Alcántara | 2B/3B/SS | DET |
Trade | 2017 | – | -0.1 | – | – |
| Drew Carlton | P | DET |
Draft | 2017 | 1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | – |
| Brendon Davis | 3B/OF | DET |
Draft | 2022 | – | -0.1 | – | – |
| Ángel De Jesús | P | DET |
Draft | 2022 | – | -0.1 | – | – |
| Josh Lester | 1B/DH | DET |
Draft | 2022 | – | -0.1 | – | – |
| Bobby Parnell | P | DET |
Free agency | 2016 | – | -0.1 | – | – |
| Tyson Ross | P | DET |
Free agency | 2018 | – | -0.1 | – | – |
| Kody Clemens | 1B | DET |
Draft | 2022 | – | -0.2 | – | – |
| Nomar Mazara | OF | DET |
Free agency | 2021 | – | -0.2 | – | – |
| Casey McGehee | 3B | DET |
Free agency | 2016 | – | -0.2 | – | – |
| Austin Meadows | DH/OF | DET |
Trade | 2022 | – | -0.2 | – | – |
| Iván Nova | P | DET |
Free agency | 2020 | – | -0.2 | – | – |
| Renato Núñez | 3B/DH | DET |
Free agency | 2021 | – | -0.2 | – | – |
| Jacob Robson | OF | DET |
Draft | 2016 | – | -0.2 | – | – |
| Chad Bell | P | DET |
Trade | 2016 | 1 | -0.3 | -0.3 | – |
| Reed Garrett | P | DET |
Rule 5 | 2018 | – | -0.3 | – | – |
| Myles Jaye | P | DET |
Trade | 2016 | – | -0.3 | – | – |
| Edward Mujica | P | DET |
Free agency | 2017 | – | -0.3 | – | – |
| Isaac Paredes | 3B | DET |
Trade | 2017 | – | -0.3 | – | – |
| Ronny Rodríguez | 2B/SS | DET |
Trade | 2018 | 1 | -0.3 | -0.3 | – |
| Victor Alcántara | P | DET |
Trade | 2016 | 1 | -0.4 | -0.4 | – |
| Daz Cameron | OF | DET |
Trade | 2017 | – | -0.4 | – | – |
| Rony García | P | DET |
Rule 5 | 2019 | 1 | -0.4 | -0.4 | – |
| Michael Pineda | P | DET |
Free agency | 2022 | – | -0.4 | – | – |
| Austin Romine | C | DET |
Free agency | 2019 | – | -0.4 | – | – |
| Justyn-Henry Malloy | DH/OF | DET |
Trade | 2022 | 1 | -0.5 | -0.5 | – |
| Bobby Wilson | C | DET |
Free agency | 2018 | – | -0.5 | – | – |
| John Hicks | C/1B | DET |
Trade | 2016 | 3 | -0.5 | -0.2 | 0.2 |
| Gordon Beckham | 2B | DET |
Free agency | 2019 | – | -0.6 | – | – |
| Bryan Garcia | P | DET |
Draft | 2016 | 1 | -0.6 | -0.6 | – |
| Garrett Hill | P | DET |
Draft | 2022 | – | -0.7 | – | – |
| Dawel Lugo | 2B/3B | DET |
Trade | 2017 | – | -0.7 | – | – |
| Ryan Carpenter | P | DET |
Trade | 2018 | – | -0.9 | – | – |
| Travis Demeritte | OF | DET |
Trade | 2019 | – | -0.9 | – | – |
| Josh Harrison | 2B/3B | DET |
Free agency | 2019 | – | -0.9 | – | – |
| Ryan Kreidler | 3B/SS | DET |
Draft | 2022 | 1 | -0.9 | -0.9 | – |
| Elvin Rodríguez | P | DET |
Draft | 2022 | – | -1.0 | – | – |
| Zack Short | SS | DET |
Trade | 2020 | 1 | -1.1 | -1.1 | – |
WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.
Graphs
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