RRosternomics
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Preston Mattingly

Preston Mattingly

★ active

General manager for the Phillies (2025–present).

2 seasons with salary-era data across 1 stint. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

Overview

Titles0
Pennants0
Playoffs1
Record152–114
Win %0.571
+2.1GM WAR — wins above a replacement GM (org-adjusted, shrunk; per season) ±7.834th/195 execs
7.0Depth — 2+ WAR regulars per season (the breadth that drives TAB, not stars)45th/195 execs
-3.5Dead WAR — WAR/yr bled by sub-replacement players (closer to 0 = better)13th/195 execs
21%Dead money — payroll on <0.5-WAR players (lower = better)10th/195 execs
$33MCheap-talent surplus — $/yr of value from cost-controlled (pre-arb/arb) players above their pay; the selection engine, and the stickiest GM skill we track42nd/195 execs
$-6MDrafted surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own draftees (the develop-from-the-draft engine)195th/195 execs
$32MTraded-for surplus — cheap-talent surplus from cost-controlled players he acquired via trade6th/195 execs
$2MInt'l surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own international signees62nd/195 execs
+4.0TAB — talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation), tenure total72nd/195 execs
+5.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + the non-repeatable luck of converting talent to wins)57th/195 execs
4.02Acquisition Leverage — playoff pts per acquired WAR, graded once in the year each deal's wins arrive (the repeatable decision skill)12th/195 execs
-206Roster surplus $M156th/195 execs

Tenure breakdown

TeamRoleYearsSzns WAB WAB/yr TAB WAR surp HG Trade FA R5 AcqLev W-L% POPenWS Surp $M
▸ Phillies GM 2025–present 2 +5.6 +2.81 +4.0 -40.6 -1.2 +0.8 -5.9 +0.0 4.02 0.571 1–– -206
Career total (1985+ data) 2 +5.6 +4.0 -40.6 -1.2 +0.8 -5.9 +0.0 4.02 0.571 1– – -206

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

by valueby volume

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)-1.2
Trade+0.8
Free agency-5.9
Rule 5 / minor draft+0.0
Sourcing mix: 0% draft · 32% FA · 68% trade · 0% R5

Roster value distribution — career average — depth vs. stars

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR, averaged across Preston Mattingly's seasons. Bars = his rosters; the black line = the league-average player at each slot. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge.

Players acquired — 24 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year Szns fWAR WAR/yr Lev
Jesús Luzardo P PHI Trade 2025 2 +8.9 +4.4 23.6
Jhoan Durán P PHI Trade 2025 2 +1.9 +1.0 3.9
Harrison Bader OF PHI Trade 2025 1 +1.2 +1.2 5.3
Derek Hill OF PHI Trade 2026 1 +0.9 +0.9 4.4
Jonathan Bowlan P PHI Trade 2026 1 +0.8 +0.8 3.9
Tim Mayza P PHI Free agency 2026 1 +0.6 +0.6 3.0
Max Kepler OF PHI Trade 2025 1 +0.6 +0.6 2.7
Walker Buehler P PHI Trade 2025 1 +0.3 +0.3 1.5
Bryan De La Cruz OF PHI Free agency 2025 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.9
Brad Keller P PHI Free agency 2025 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.9
Trevor Richards P PHI Trade 2026 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.8
Zach Pop P PHI Free agency 2025 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.5
Alan Rangel P PHI Draft 2025 1 +0.1 +0.1 –
Kyle Backhus P PHI Trade 2025 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Steward Berroa OF PHI Trade 2026 – -0.0 – –
Justin Crawford OF PHI Draft 2026 1 +0.0 +0.0 –
Adolis García OF PHI Free agency 2025 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Nolan Hoffman P PHI Trade 2025 2 +0.0 +0.0 –
Andrew Painter P PHI Draft 2026 – -0.0 – –
Lou Trivino P PHI Trade 2025 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.5
Daniel Robert P PHI Trade 2025 – -0.1 – –
Dylan Moore 2B/OF PHI Free agency 2026 – -0.2 – –
Felix Reyes 1B/OF PHI Draft 2026 – -0.4 – –
Otto Kemp 3B/OF PHI Draft 2025 – -0.9 – –

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

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Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.