RRosternomics
Mike Chernoff

Mike Chernoff

★ active

Born 1980 · age 46

General manager for the Guardians (2016–present).

11 seasons with salary-era data across 1 stint. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

Overview

Titles0
Pennants1
Playoffs7
Record897–724
Win %0.553
+5.9GM WAR — wins above a replacement GM (org-adjusted, shrunk; per season) ±4.77th/195 execs
6.6Depth — 2+ WAR regulars per season (the breadth that drives TAB, not stars)75th/195 execs
-4.2Dead WAR — WAR/yr bled by sub-replacement players (closer to 0 = better)31st/195 execs
32%Dead money — payroll on <0.5-WAR players (lower = better)84th/195 execs
$59MCheap-talent surplus — $/yr of value from cost-controlled (pre-arb/arb) players above their pay; the selection engine, and the stickiest GM skill we track11th/195 execs
$18MDrafted surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own draftees (the develop-from-the-draft engine)20th/195 execs
$17MTraded-for surplus — cheap-talent surplus from cost-controlled players he acquired via trade21st/195 execs
$7MInt'l surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own international signees10th/195 execs
+108.9TAB — talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation), tenure total7th/195 execs
+129.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + the non-repeatable luck of converting talent to wins)7th/195 execs
3.13Acquisition Leverage — playoff pts per acquired WAR, graded once in the year each deal's wins arrive (the repeatable decision skill)40th/195 execs
+548Roster surplus $M3rd/195 execs

Tenure breakdown

TeamRoleYearsSzns WAB WAB/yr TAB WAR surp HG Trade FA R5 AcqLev W-L% POPenWS Surp $M
Guardians GM 2016–present 10 +129.4 +12.94 +108.9 +137.8 +102.6 -5.6 -34.1 -7.2 3.13 0.553 71 +548
Career total (1985+ data) 11 +129.4 +108.9 +137.8 +102.6 -5.6 -34.1 -7.2 3.13 0.553 71 +548

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+102.6
Trade-5.6
Free agency-34.1
Rule 5 / minor draft-7.2
Sourcing mix: 66% draft · 11% FA · 22% trade · 1% R5

Roster value distribution — career average — depth vs. stars

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR, averaged across Mike Chernoff's seasons. Bars = his rosters; the black line = the league-average player at each slot. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge.

Players acquired — 171 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year Szns fWAR WAR/yr Lev
Shane Bieber P CLE Draft 2016 7 +21.5 +3.1
Steven Kwan OF CLE Draft 2022 5 +16.6 +3.3
Andrés Giménez 2B CLE Trade 2021 4 +13.3 +3.3 0.2
Emmanuel Clase P CLE Trade 2021 5 +9.6 +1.9 0.5
Tanner Bibee P CLE Draft 2023 4 +9.0 +2.2
Cade Smith P CLE Draft 2024 3 +7.2 +2.4
Josh Naylor 1B CLE Trade 2021 4 +7.0 +1.8 0.1
Gavin Williams P CLE Draft 2023 4 +6.1 +1.5
Amed Rosario SS CLE Trade 2021 3 +5.9 +2.0 0.6
Cal Quantrill P CLE Trade 2020 4 +4.9 +1.2 2.1
Aaron Civale P CLE Draft 2016 5 +4.6 +0.9
Zach Plesac P CLE Draft 2016 5 +4.4 +0.9
Brayan Rocchio SS CLE Draft 2023 3 +4.4 +1.5
Bo Naylor C CLE Draft 2022 3 +4.3 +1.4
Edwin Encarnación 1B/3B/DH CLE Free agency 2017 2 +3.9 +1.9 2.5
Parker Messick P CLE Draft 2025 2 +3.9 +2.0
Andrew Miller P CLE Trade 2016 3 +3.7 +1.2 6.0
Joey Cantillo P CLE Draft 2024 3 +3.5 +1.2
Logan Allen P CLE Draft 2023 3 +2.8 +0.9
Brad Hand P CLE Trade 2018 3 +2.7 +0.9 1.5
Jordan Luplow OF CLE Trade 2018 3 +2.6 +0.9 16.0
Austin Hedges C CLE Free agency 2023 4 +2.5 +0.6 0.1
Hunter Gaddis P CLE Draft 2022 4 +2.3 +0.6
James Karinchak P CLE Draft 2017 4 +2.2 +0.5
Óscar Mercado OF CLE Trade 2018 2 +2.1 +1.1
Óliver Pérez P CLE Free agency 2018 4 +2.1 +0.5 3.4
Daniel Schneemann 2B/OF CLE Draft 2024 3 +2.1 +0.7
Trevor Stephan P CLE Rule 5 2020 2 +2.1 +1.1
Chase DeLauter DH/OF CLE Draft 2026 1 +1.9 +1.9
César Hernández 2B CLE Free agency 2019 2 +1.9 +0.9 17.2
Austin Jackson OF CLE Free agency 2017 1 +1.9 +1.9 1.8
Gabriel Arias SS CLE Draft 2022 3 +1.8 +0.6
Enyel De Los Santos P CLE Free agency 2021 2 +1.7 +0.9 6.7
Eli Morgan P CLE Draft 2017 4 +1.7 +0.4
Myles Straw OF CLE Trade 2021 4 +1.7 +0.4 0.5
Slade Cecconi P CLE Trade 2024 2 +1.6 +0.8 0.5
Franmil Reyes DH/OF CLE Trade 2020 2 +1.6 +0.8 7.5
Travis Bazzana 2B CLE Draft 2026 1 +1.5 +1.5
Dan Otero P CLE Trade 2016 2 +1.5 +0.8 8.9
Erik Sabrowski P CLE Draft 2024 3 +1.3 +0.4
Ben Lively P CLE Free agency 2023 2 +1.2 +0.6 2.4
Mike Napoli C/1B CLE Free agency 2016 1 +1.2 +1.2 6.8
Yasiel Puig OF CLE Trade 2019 1 +1.2 +1.2 7.7
Matt Festa P CLE Trade 2025 2 +1.1 +0.5 0.5
Mike Freeman 2B CLE Free agency 2018 2 +1.0 +0.5 6.2
Matt Boyd P CLE Free agency 2024 1 +0.9 +0.9 2.7
Colin Holderman P CLE Free agency 2025 1 +0.9 +0.9 5.5
Kyle Manzardo 1B/DH CLE Trade 2023 2 +0.9 +0.4
Tyler Olson P CLE Trade 2017 3 +0.9 +0.3 0.5
Luis Ortiz P CLE Trade 2025 1 +0.9 +0.9 0.6
Kolby Allard P CLE Free agency 2025 1 +0.7 +0.7 0.5
Will Brennan OF CLE Draft 2022 2 +0.7 +0.4
Tyler Clippard P CLE Free agency 2019 1 +0.7 +0.7 4.5
David Fry DH CLE Trade 2022 1 +0.7 +0.7
Luke Maile C CLE Free agency 2022 1 +0.7 +0.7 4.8
Angel Martínez OF CLE Draft 2024 1 +0.7 +0.7
Phil Maton P CLE Trade 2019 3 +0.7 +0.2 0.4
Tyler Freeman OF CLE Draft 2022 3 +0.6 +0.2
Jakob Junis P CLE Free agency 2025 1 +0.6 +0.6 0.4
Kevin Plawecki C CLE Trade 2019 1 +0.6 +0.6 3.7
Rajai Davis OF CLE Trade 2016 1 +0.6 +0.6 6.4
Jay Bruce OF CLE Trade 2017 1 +0.6 +0.6 0.6
Ramón Laureano OF CLE Trade 2023 1 +0.6 +0.6 0.9
Nick Goody P CLE Trade 2016 2 +0.5 +0.2 0.6
Jefry Rodríguez P CLE Trade 2018 1 +0.5 +0.5 3.0
Josh Donaldson 3B CLE Trade 2018 1 +0.5 +0.5 1.7
Patrick Bailey C CLE Trade 2026 1 +0.5 +0.5 3.2
Tim Herrin P CLE Draft 2023 2 +0.4 +0.2
Reynaldo López P CLE Trade 2023 1 +0.4 +0.4 0.4
Adam Cimber P CLE Trade 2018 2 +0.3 +0.2 1.4
Alex Cobb P CLE Trade 2024 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.8
Xzavion Curry P CLE Draft 2022 1 +0.3 +0.3
Boone Logan P CLE Free agency 2017 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.3
Konnor Pilkington P CLE Draft 2022 2 +0.3 +0.1
Tommy Hunter P CLE Trade 2016 1 +0.3 +0.3 1.7
Pedro Avila P CLE Trade 2024 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.8
Ernie Clement 2B/3B CLE Draft 2017 1 +0.2 +0.2
Nic Enright P CLE Draft 2025 1 +0.2 +0.2
Brandon Guyer OF CLE Trade 2016 2 +0.2 +0.1 5.6
Nolan Jones OF CLE Draft 2022 1 +0.2 +0.2
Michael Kelly P CLE Free agency 2023 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.3
Blake Parker P CLE Free agency 2021 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.1
Brad Miller SS CLE Trade 2019 1 +0.2 +0.2 1.2
Eddie Rosario OF CLE Trade 2021 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.1
A. J. Cole P CLE Trade 2019 1 +0.2 +0.2 1.5
Yonder Alonso 1B CLE Free agency 2017 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.3
Brandon Barnes OF CLE Free agency 2017 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.4
Peyton Battenfield P CLE Draft 2023 1 +0.1 +0.1
Marlon Byrd OF CLE Free agency 2016 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.4
Zack Collins C CLE Free agency 2023 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.1
Delino DeShields OF CLE Trade 2019 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.6
Estevan Florial OF CLE Trade 2023 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.2
Perci Garner P CLE Trade 2016 1 +0.1 +0.1
Connor Gillispie P CLE Draft 2024 1 +0.1 +0.1
Petey Halpin OF CLE Draft 2025 2 +0.1 +0.1
Codi Heuer P CLE Free agency 2025 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.4
Zak Kent P CLE Trade 2024 1 +0.1 +0.1
Ryan Lavarnway C CLE Free agency 2019 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0
Evan Marshall P CLE Free agency 2017 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.4
Adam Rosales 2B/3B/SS CLE Free agency 2018 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.3
Peter Strzelecki P CLE Trade 2024 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.2
René Rivera C CLE Trade 2021 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0
Craig Breslow P CLE Trade 2017 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.1
Joba Chamberlain P CLE Trade 2016 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.6
Nick Wittgren P CLE Trade 2019 2 +0.1 +0.1 2.6
Paul Sewald P CLE Trade 2025 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.1
Wes Parsons P CLE Trade 2024 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.3
Scott Barlow P CLE Trade 2023 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Melky Cabrera OF CLE Free agency 2018 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Stuart Fairchild OF CLE Free agency 2025 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.2
Oscar González OF CLE Draft 2022 1 -0.0 -0.0
James Hoyt P CLE Trade 2018 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
CJ Kayfus 1B/OF CLE Draft 2025 1 -0.0 -0.0
Sandy León C CLE Free agency 2021 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.2
Owen Miller 1B/2B CLE Trade 2020 1 -0.0 -0.0
Doug Nikhazy P CLE Draft 2025 1 +0.0 +0.0
Dom Nuñez C CLE Free agency 2024 -0.0
Andrew Walters P CLE Draft 2024 1 +0.0 +0.0
Matt Moore P CLE Trade 2023 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Oliver Drake P CLE Trade 2018 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Hunter Wood P CLE Trade 2019 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Christian Arroyo 2B CLE Trade 2020 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Ian Gibaut P CLE Trade 2022 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Carlos Hernández P CLE Trade 2025 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Cody Bolton P CLE Trade 2025 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Anthony Gose OF CLE Free agency 2019 1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
Bryan Lavastida C CLE Draft 2022 -0.1
Dominic Leone P CLE Free agency 2020 -0.1
Sandy León C CLE Trade 2019 1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2
Cody Morris P CLE Draft 2022 1 -0.1 -0.1
Kyle Nelson P CLE Draft 2017 -0.1
Alexi Ogando P CLE Free agency 2017 -0.1
Peyton Pallette P CLE Draft 2026 -0.1
Nick Sandlin P CLE Draft 2018 2 -0.1 -0.0
Tanner Tully P CLE Draft 2022 -0.1
Meibrys Viloria C CLE Free agency 2022 -0.1
Alex Young P CLE Trade 2022 1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1
Lane Thomas OF CLE Trade 2024 1 -0.1 -0.1 1.2
Tyler Beede P CLE Free agency 2024 -0.2
Ryan Flaherty 2B/3B CLE Free agency 2019 -0.2
Daniel Johnson OF CLE Trade 2018 -0.2
Max Moroff 2B/SS CLE Trade 2018 -0.2
Hanley Ramírez SS CLE Free agency 2019 -0.2
Neil Ramírez P CLE Free agency 2017 -0.2
Domingo Santana OF CLE Free agency 2020 -0.2
Beau Taylor C CLE Free agency 2019 -0.2
José Tena 3B CLE Draft 2023 -0.2
Michael Martínez 2B/OF CLE Trade 2017 1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1
Leonys Martín OF CLE Trade 2018 1 -0.2 -0.2 0.7
Jeff Beliveau P CLE Free agency 2017 -0.3
Juan Brito 2B CLE Trade 2022 -0.3
Connor Brogdon P CLE Free agency 2025 -0.3
Jon Edwards P CLE Free agency 2018 -0.3
Daniel Norris P CLE Free agency 2023 -0.3
Dan Robertson OF CLE Free agency 2016 -0.3
George Valera DH/OF CLE Draft 2025 1 -0.3 -0.3
Mike Zunino C CLE Free agency 2022 -0.3
Logan Allen P CLE Trade 2019 2 -0.3 -0.2 0.4
Will Benson OF CLE Draft 2022 -0.4
Rhys Hoskins 1B CLE Free agency 2026 -0.4
Nolan Jones OF CLE Trade 2025 1 -0.4 -0.4
Jhonkensy Noel OF CLE Draft 2024 1 -0.4 -0.4
Richie Palacios 2B/OF CLE Draft 2022 -0.4
Anthony Castro P CLE Trade 2022 -0.5
Juan Uribe 3B/SS CLE Free agency 2016 -0.5
Will Wilson 2B/3B CLE Draft 2025 -0.5
Bryan Shaw P CLE Free agency 2021 5 -0.6 -0.1 2.5
Cam Gallagher C CLE Free agency 2023 -0.7
Johnathan Rodríguez OF CLE Draft 2024 -0.7
Jake Bauers 1B/OF CLE Trade 2018 -0.8
Kirk McCarty P CLE Draft 2022 -0.8

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

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