RRosternomics
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Dana Brown

Dana Brown

★ active

Born 1967 · age 59

General manager for the Astros (2023–present).

4 seasons with salary-era data across 1 stint. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

Overview

Titles0
Pennants0
Playoffs2
Record316–274
Win %0.536
+0.7GM WAR — wins above a replacement GM (org-adjusted, shrunk; per season) ±6.560th/195 execs
7.2Depth — 2+ WAR regulars per season (the breadth that drives TAB, not stars)41st/195 execs
-4.4Dead WAR — WAR/yr bled by sub-replacement players (closer to 0 = better)49th/195 execs
29%Dead money — payroll on <0.5-WAR players (lower = better)48th/195 execs
$40MCheap-talent surplus — $/yr of value from cost-controlled (pre-arb/arb) players above their pay; the selection engine, and the stickiest GM skill we track25th/195 execs
$8MDrafted surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own draftees (the develop-from-the-draft engine)73rd/195 execs
$7MTraded-for surplus — cheap-talent surplus from cost-controlled players he acquired via trade58th/195 execs
$0MInt'l surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own international signees106th/195 execs
-4.0TAB — talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation), tenure total89th/195 execs
+3.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + the non-repeatable luck of converting talent to wins)63rd/195 execs
3.79Acquisition Leverage — playoff pts per acquired WAR, graded once in the year each deal's wins arrive (the repeatable decision skill)18th/195 execs
-271Roster surplus $M171st/195 execs

Tenure breakdown

TeamRoleYearsSzns WAB WAB/yr TAB WAR surp HG Trade FA R5 AcqLev W-L% POPenWS Surp $M
▸ Astros GM 2023–present 4 +3.3 +0.83 -4.0 -55.6 +3.3 +3.9 -3.1 +0.0 3.79 0.536 2–– -271
Career total (1985+ data) 4 +3.3 -4.0 -55.6 +3.3 +3.9 -3.1 +0.0 3.79 0.536 2– – -271

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

by valueby volume

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+3.3
Trade+3.9
Free agency-3.1
Rule 5 / minor draft+0.0
Sourcing mix: 17% draft · 69% FA · 14% trade · 0% R5

Roster value distribution — career average — depth vs. stars

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR, averaged across Dana Brown's seasons. Bars = his rosters; the black line = the league-average player at each slot. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge.

Players acquired — 66 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year Szns fWAR WAR/yr Lev
Isaac Paredes 3B HOU Trade 2025 2 +5.1 +2.5 8.7
Josh Hader P HOU Free agency 2024 3 +2.9 +1.0 6.2
Víctor Caratini C HOU Free agency 2023 2 +2.7 +1.4 12.5
Steven Okert P HOU Free agency 2024 2 +2.7 +1.3 5.7
Christian Walker 1B HOU Free agency 2024 2 +2.6 +1.3 4.1
Cam Smith OF HOU Trade 2024 2 +2.1 +1.1 –
Spencer Arrighetti P HOU Draft 2024 2 +2.0 +1.0 –
Peter Lambert P HOU Free agency 2025 1 +1.5 +1.5 1.0
Yusei Kikuchi P HOU Trade 2024 1 +1.4 +1.4 9.2
Bennett Sousa P HOU Trade 2023 3 +1.3 +0.4 1.3
J. P. France P HOU Draft 2023 2 +1.2 +0.6 –
Carlos Correa SS HOU Trade 2025 9 +1.1 +0.1 –
Bryan King P HOU Draft 2024 2 +1.0 +0.5 –
Enyel De Los Santos P HOU Free agency 2025 1 +0.8 +0.8 0.5
Brandon Walter P HOU Free agency 2024 1 +0.8 +0.8 3.0
AJ Blubaugh P HOU Draft 2025 2 +0.4 +0.2 –
Shawn Dubin P HOU Draft 2023 2 +0.4 +0.2 –
Tatsuya Imai P HOU Draft 2026 1 +0.4 +0.4 –
Corey Julks OF HOU Draft 2023 1 +0.4 +0.4 –
Jason Alexander P HOU Trade 2025 1 +0.4 +0.4 1.8
Zach Cole OF HOU Draft 2025 1 +0.3 +0.3 –
Jason Heyward OF HOU Trade 2024 1 +0.3 +0.3 2.2
Caleb Ferguson P HOU Trade 2024 1 +0.3 +0.3 1.8
Joey Loperfido OF HOU Trade 2026 2 +0.2 +0.1 2.2
Brice Matthews 2B/OF HOU Draft 2025 2 +0.2 +0.1 –
Tayler Scott P HOU Free agency 2023 1 +0.2 +0.2 1.2
Ramón Urías 3B HOU Trade 2025 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.8
Nick Allen SS HOU Trade 2026 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.1
Hayden Wesneski P HOU Trade 2025 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.7
Kai-Wei Teng P HOU Trade 2026 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.1
Nate Pearson P HOU Free agency 2025 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0
César Salazar C HOU Draft 2023 2 +0.1 +0.0 –
Logan VanWey P HOU Draft 2025 1 +0.1 +0.1 –
Ben Gamel OF HOU Trade 2024 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.7
Cody Bolton P HOU Free agency 2025 – -0.0 – –
Dylan Coleman P HOU Trade 2023 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Luis Contreras P HOU Draft 2024 1 +0.0 +0.0 –
Kenedy Corona OF HOU Draft 2025 1 +0.0 +0.0 –
Miguel Díaz P HOU Free agency 2024 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Luis Guillorme 2B/3B HOU Free agency 2025 – -0.0 – –
Zack Short SS HOU Free agency 2025 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.2
Wander Suero P HOU Free agency 2023 – +0.0 – –
LaMonte Wade 1B/OF HOU Free agency 2026 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Jordan Weems P HOU Free agency 2025 – -0.0 – –
Forrest Whitley P HOU Draft 2024 1 +0.0 +0.0 –
Craig Kimbrel P HOU Trade 2025 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Matt Gage P HOU Trade 2023 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.2
Zach Dezenzo OF HOU Draft 2024 2 -0.1 -0.0 –
Blair Henley P HOU Draft 2024 – -0.1 – –
Cooper Hummel DH/OF HOU Free agency 2025 – -0.1 – –
Daniel Johnson OF HOU Free agency 2026 – -0.1 – –
Christian Roa P HOU Free agency 2025 – -0.1 – –
John Rooney P HOU Trade 2025 – -0.1 – –
Christian Vázquez C HOU Free agency 2026 1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1
Taylor Trammell OF HOU Trade 2026 1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1
Joel Kuhnel P HOU Trade 2024 1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
Grae Kessinger 2B/3B HOU Draft 2023 1 -0.2 -0.2 –
Jake Bloss P HOU Draft 2024 – -0.3 – –
Nick Hernandez P HOU Trade 2024 – -0.3 – –
Bligh Madris 1B/OF HOU Trade 2023 – -0.3 – –
Jacob Melton OF HOU Draft 2025 – -0.3 – –
Brendan Rodgers 2B HOU Free agency 2025 – -0.3 – –
Colton Gordon P HOU Draft 2025 1 -0.4 -0.4 –
Pedro León OF HOU Draft 2024 – -0.5 – –
Ryan Weiss P HOU Draft 2026 – -0.6 – –
Shay Whitcomb 3B HOU Draft 2024 – -0.8 – –

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

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Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.