RRosternomics
Mike Elias

Mike Elias

★ active

Born Dec 28, 1982 · Alexandria, VA · age 43

Led the Baltimore Orioles' analytics-driven rebuild from baseball's worst record into a young, cost-controlled powerhouse and 2023 AL East champion.

8 seasons with salary-era data across 1 stint. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

Overview

Titles0
Pennants0
Playoffs2
Record531–605
Win %0.467
+3.5GM WAR — wins above a replacement GM (org-adjusted, shrunk; per season) ±5.422nd/195 execs
4.4Depth — 2+ WAR regulars per season (the breadth that drives TAB, not stars)161st/195 execs
-5.6Dead WAR — WAR/yr bled by sub-replacement players (closer to 0 = better)122nd/195 execs
56%Dead money — payroll on <0.5-WAR players (lower = better)190th/195 execs
$50MCheap-talent surplus — $/yr of value from cost-controlled (pre-arb/arb) players above their pay; the selection engine, and the stickiest GM skill we track15th/195 execs
$9MDrafted surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own draftees (the develop-from-the-draft engine)69th/195 execs
$14MTraded-for surplus — cheap-talent surplus from cost-controlled players he acquired via trade31st/195 execs
$-0MInt'l surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own international signees154th/195 execs
+19.1TAB — talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation), tenure total40th/195 execs
+15.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + the non-repeatable luck of converting talent to wins)42nd/195 execs
1.94Acquisition Leverage — playoff pts per acquired WAR, graded once in the year each deal's wins arrive (the repeatable decision skill)83rd/195 execs
+181Roster surplus $M9th/195 execs

Tenure breakdown

TeamRoleYearsSzns WAB WAB/yr TAB WAR surp HG Trade FA R5 AcqLev W-L% POPenWS Surp $M
Orioles GM 2019–present 7 +15.9 +2.27 +19.1 +44.1 +69.1 -0.2 -3.1 +4.6 1.94 0.467 2 +181
Career total (1985+ data) 8 +15.9 +19.1 +44.1 +69.1 -0.2 -3.1 +4.6 1.94 0.467 2 +181

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+69.1
Trade-0.2
Free agency-3.1
Rule 5 / minor draft+4.6
Sourcing mix: 67% draft · 7% FA · 21% trade · 4% R5

Roster value distribution — career average — depth vs. stars

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR, averaged across Mike Elias's seasons. Bars = his rosters; the black line = the league-average player at each slot. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge.

Players acquired — 160 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year Szns fWAR WAR/yr Lev
Gunnar Henderson SS BAL Draft 2022 5 +20.1 +4.0
Adley Rutschman C BAL Draft 2022 5 +17.3 +3.5
Kyle Bradish P BAL Draft 2022 5 +8.8 +1.8
Jordan Westburg 2B/3B BAL Draft 2023 3 +5.6 +1.9
Trevor Rogers P BAL Trade 2024 3 +5.5 +1.8 0.1
Colton Cowser OF BAL Draft 2023 3 +5.3 +1.8
Ramón Urías 3B BAL Trade 2020 5 +5.2 +1.0
Félix Bautista P BAL Draft 2022 3 +4.8 +1.6
Grayson Rodriguez P BAL Draft 2023 2 +3.9 +2.0
Tyler Wells P BAL Rule 5 2020 6 +3.9 +0.7
Corbin Burnes P BAL Trade 2024 1 +3.8 +3.8 24.0
Jorge Mateo SS BAL Trade 2021 4 +3.8 +0.9 0.0
Ryan O'Hearn 1B BAL Trade 2023 3 +3.1 +1.0 7.4
Yennier Cano P BAL Trade 2022 5 +3.0 +0.6
Pete Alonso 1B BAL Free agency 2025 1 +2.5 +2.5 4.3
Shane Baz P BAL Trade 2025 1 +2.4 +2.4 4.3
Hanser Alberto 2B/3B BAL Trade 2019 2 +2.3 +1.2 0.1
Ramón Laureano OF BAL Trade 2025 1 +2.3 +2.3 0.8
Bryan Baker P BAL Trade 2022 4 +2.2 +0.5 2.3
Kyle Gibson P BAL Free agency 2022 1 +2.0 +2.0 12.6
Danny Coulombe P BAL Trade 2023 2 +1.9 +1.0 6.7
Cionel Pérez P BAL Trade 2022 3 +1.9 +0.6 1.7
Matt Harvey P BAL Free agency 2021 1 +1.8 +1.8 0.1
Cade Povich P BAL Trade 2022 2 +1.8 +0.9
Jorge López P BAL Trade 2020 3 +1.8 +0.6 0.4
Jackson Holliday 2B BAL Draft 2024 2 +1.7 +0.9
Albert Suárez P BAL Free agency 2023 2 +1.7 +0.9 8.9
Taylor Ward OF BAL Trade 2026 1 +1.7 +1.7 3.1
Jose Iglesias SS BAL Free agency 2020 1 +1.6 +1.6 1.9
Brandon Young P BAL Draft 2025 1 +1.6 +1.6
Cole Sulser P BAL Trade 2020 2 +1.6 +0.8 0.2
Blaze Alexander 3B BAL Trade 2026 1 +1.5 +1.5 2.8
Jordan Lyles P BAL Free agency 2022 1 +1.5 +1.5 2.6
Aaron Hicks OF BAL Trade 2023 1 +1.4 +1.4 6.6
Cole Irvin P BAL Trade 2023 2 +1.1 +0.6 2.6
Jacob Webb P BAL Trade 2023 2 +1.1 +0.5 1.8
Alex Jackson C BAL Trade 2025 1 +1.0 +1.0 0.4
Jeremiah Jackson 2B/OF BAL Rule 5 2025 2 +1.0 +0.5
Freddy Galvis SS BAL Trade 2021 1 +1.0 +1.0 0.0
Grant Wolfram P BAL Trade 2025 2 +0.9 +0.5
Shawn Armstrong P BAL Trade 2019 2 +0.9 +0.5 0.0
Asher Wojciechowski P BAL Trade 2019 1 +0.9 +0.9 0.0
DL Hall P BAL Draft 2022 2 +0.8 +0.4
Spenser Watkins P BAL Trade 2021 1 +0.8 +0.8
Austin Voth P BAL Trade 2022 1 +0.8 +0.8 1.8
Dylan Beavers OF BAL Draft 2025 2 +0.7 +0.3
César Valdez P BAL Free agency 2020 2 +0.7 +0.4 0.7
Tommy Milone P BAL Trade 2020 1 +0.7 +0.7 1.0
Samuel Basallo C/DH BAL Draft 2025 1 +0.6 +0.6
Leody Taveras OF BAL Free agency 2025 1 +0.6 +0.6 1.3
Aaron Brooks P BAL Trade 2019 1 +0.6 +0.6 0.0
Gregory Soto P BAL Trade 2024 2 +0.6 +0.3 0.5
Dietrich Enns P BAL Trade 2025 2 +0.5 +0.3 0.1
Christian Encarnacion-Strand 1B BAL Trade 2026 1 +0.5 +0.5 1.0
Adam Frazier 2B/OF BAL Free agency 2022 1 +0.4 +0.4 1.9
Miguel Castro P BAL Trade 2019 2 +0.4 +0.2 0.0
Conner Greene P BAL Trade 2021 1 +0.4 +0.4 0.0
Kelvin Gutiérrez 3B BAL Trade 2021 1 +0.4 +0.4 0.0
Chris Bassitt P BAL Free agency 2026 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.6
Rico Garcia P BAL Free agency 2021 2 +0.3 +0.1 0.0
James McCann C BAL Trade 2022 2 +0.3 +0.2 1.2
Rougned Odor 2B BAL Free agency 2021 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.5
Charlie Morton P BAL Trade 2025 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.1
Keon Broxton OF BAL Trade 2019 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.0
Austin Slater OF BAL Trade 2024 1 +0.3 +0.3 2.0
Seranthony Domínguez P BAL Trade 2025 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.2
Evan Phillips P BAL Trade 2019 2 +0.3 +0.2 0.0
Craig Kimbrel P BAL Free agency 2023 1 +0.2 +0.2 1.0
Anthony Nunez P BAL Trade 2025 1 +0.2 +0.2
Denyi Reyes P BAL Draft 2022 1 +0.2 +0.2
Kade Strowd P BAL Draft 2025 1 +0.2 +0.2
Jack Flaherty P BAL Trade 2023 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.7
Livan Soto SS BAL Trade 2024 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.9
Cam Sanders P BAL Trade 2026 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.3
Fernando Abad P BAL Free agency 2020 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0
Jose Espada P BAL Free agency 2025 2 +0.1 +0.0 0.0
Nate Karns P BAL Free agency 2019 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0
Andrew Kittredge P BAL Trade 2025 2 +0.1 +0.0 0.1
Dusten Knight P BAL Trade 2021 1 +0.1 +0.1
Tomoyuki Sugano P BAL Draft 2025 1 +0.1 +0.1
Josh Lucas P BAL Trade 2019 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0
Jake Reed P BAL Trade 2022 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.2
Carson Fulmer P BAL Trade 2020 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.1
Emmanuel Rivera 3B BAL Trade 2024 1 +0.1 +0.1 2.9
Vinny Nittoli P BAL Trade 2024 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.6
Shintaro Fujinami P BAL Trade 2023 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.5
Vidal Bruján 2B/OF BAL Trade 2025 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0
Travis Lakins P BAL Trade 2020 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.6
Shawn Dubin P BAL Trade 2025 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0
Colin Selby P BAL Trade 2024 2 +0.1 +0.1 0.3
David Bañuelos DH BAL Draft 2024 1 -0.0 -0.0
Matthew Bowman P BAL Free agency 2024 1 -0.0 -0.0 0.2
Nick Ciuffo C BAL Free agency 2020 -0.0
Yusniel Díaz OF BAL Draft 2022 -0.0
Cameron Foster P BAL Trade 2025 -0.0
Daniel Johnson OF BAL Free agency 2024 -0.0
Vimael Machín 3B BAL Free agency 2024 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Isaac Mattson P BAL Trade 2019 -0.0
Cody Poteet P BAL Trade 2025 -0.0
Carson Ragsdale P BAL Draft 2025 -0.0
Cody Sedlock P BAL Draft 2022 1 +0.0 +0.0
Chris Vallimont P BAL Draft 2023 1 +0.0 +0.0
Louis Head P BAL Trade 2022 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Rio Ruiz 3B BAL Trade 2020 1 -0.0 -0.0 0.5
Burch Smith P BAL Trade 2024 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.3
José Castillo P BAL Trade 2025 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Zack Burdi P BAL Trade 2021 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Lou Trivino P BAL Trade 2026 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Chadwick Tromp C BAL Trade 2025 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Tucker Davidson P BAL Trade 2024 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Mark Kolozsvary C BAL Trade 2023 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Eduard Bazardo P BAL Trade 2023 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Cristian Pache OF BAL Trade 2024 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.3
Yohan Ramírez P BAL Trade 2024 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.2
Roansy Contreras P BAL Trade 2025 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Josh Walker P BAL Trade 2026 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Jordyn Adams OF BAL Free agency 2024 -0.1
Manny Barreda P BAL Trade 2021 -0.1
Marcos Diplán P BAL Trade 2019 1 -0.1 -0.1
Chris Ellis P BAL Free agency 2022 1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
Ryan Helsley P BAL Free agency 2025 -0.1
Dilson Herrera 2B BAL Free agency 2019 -0.1
Tony Kemp 2B/OF BAL Free agency 2024 -0.1
Matt Krook P BAL Trade 2024 -0.1
Wade LeBlanc P BAL Free agency 2020 1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
Coby Mayo 1B/3B BAL Draft 2024 2 -0.1 -0.0
Joey Ortiz 3B/SS BAL Draft 2023 -0.1
Nick Raquet P BAL Trade 2026 -0.1
Chandler Shepherd P BAL Trade 2019 -0.1
Nick Vespi P BAL Draft 2022 2 -0.1 -0.0
Zach Eflin P BAL Free agency 2025 2 -0.2 -0.1 5.6
Logan Gillaspie P BAL Draft 2022 1 -0.2 -0.2
Bryan Holaday C BAL Free agency 2020 -0.2
Sam Huff C BAL Free agency 2026 -0.2
Mickey Jannis P BAL Trade 2021 -0.2
Josh Lester 1B/DH BAL Free agency 2022 -0.2
Corbin Martin P BAL Free agency 2025 -0.2
Tyler O'Neill OF BAL Free agency 2024 1 -0.2 -0.2 0.4
Gary Sánchez C BAL Free agency 2024 -0.2
Kyle Stowers OF BAL Draft 2022 2 -0.2 -0.1
Jesús Sucre C BAL Free agency 2019 -0.2
Terrin Vavra 2B/OF BAL Draft 2022 1 -0.2 -0.2
Luis Vázquez 3B/SS BAL Trade 2025 -0.2
Greg Allen OF BAL Free agency 2025 -0.3
Anthony Bemboom C BAL Free agency 2022 -0.3
Yaramil Hiraldo P BAL Draft 2025 -0.3
Mason Williams OF BAL Free agency 2019 1 -0.3 -0.3 0.0
Dylan Carlson OF BAL Free agency 2025 -0.4
Chayce McDermott P BAL Trade 2022 -0.4
Mac Sceroler P BAL Rule 5 2020 -0.4
Thomas Eshelman P BAL Trade 2019 -0.5
Tyler Nevin 1B/3B BAL Trade 2020 1 -0.5 -0.5
Maikel Franco 3B BAL Free agency 2021 -0.6
Maverick Handley C BAL Draft 2025 -0.6
Chris Owings 2B/SS BAL Free agency 2022 -0.6
Pedro Severino C BAL Trade 2019 2 -0.6 -0.3 0.0
Heston Kjerstad OF BAL Draft 2023 2 -0.7 -0.4
Pat Valaika 2B/SS BAL Trade 2020 1 -0.7 -0.7 0.2
Dan Straily P BAL Free agency 2019 -1.1
Robinson Chirinos C BAL Free agency 2022 -1.3

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

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