RRosternomics
Derek Falvey

Derek Falvey

★ active

Born Mar 19, 1983 · age 43

Minnesota Twins president of baseball operations, modernizing the club's analytics and pitching development while winning multiple AL Central titles.

10 seasons with salary-era data across 1 stint. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

Overview

Titles0
Pennants0
Playoffs4
Record741–720
Win %0.507
+2.8GM WAR — wins above a replacement GM (org-adjusted, shrunk; per season) ±4.929th/195 execs
6.3Depth — 2+ WAR regulars per season (the breadth that drives TAB, not stars)92nd/195 execs
-4.2Dead WAR — WAR/yr bled by sub-replacement players (closer to 0 = better)32nd/195 execs
26%Dead money — payroll on <0.5-WAR players (lower = better)32nd/195 execs
$46MCheap-talent surplus — $/yr of value from cost-controlled (pre-arb/arb) players above their pay; the selection engine, and the stickiest GM skill we track19th/195 execs
$22MDrafted surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own draftees (the develop-from-the-draft engine)13th/195 execs
$12MTraded-for surplus — cheap-talent surplus from cost-controlled players he acquired via trade37th/195 execs
$6MInt'l surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own international signees11th/195 execs
+42.9TAB — talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation), tenure total24th/195 execs
+18.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + the non-repeatable luck of converting talent to wins)39th/195 execs
3.15Acquisition Leverage — playoff pts per acquired WAR, graded once in the year each deal's wins arrive (the repeatable decision skill)39th/195 execs
+154Roster surplus $M10th/195 execs

Tenure breakdown

TeamRoleYearsSzns WAB WAB/yr TAB WAR surp HG Trade FA R5 AcqLev W-L% POPenWS Surp $M
Twins POBO 2017–present 9 +18.1 +2.02 +42.9 +36.3 +56.2 -2.7 -26.3 -5.7 3.15 0.507 4 +154
Career total (1985+ data) 10 +18.1 +42.9 +36.3 +56.2 -2.7 -26.3 -5.7 3.15 0.507 4 +154

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+56.2
Trade-2.7
Free agency-26.3
Rule 5 / minor draft-5.7
Sourcing mix: 39% draft · 37% FA · 24% trade · 0% R5

Roster value distribution — career average — depth vs. stars

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR, averaged across Derek Falvey's seasons. Bars = his rosters; the black line = the league-average player at each slot. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge.

Players acquired — 169 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year Szns fWAR WAR/yr Lev
Joe Ryan P MIN Trade 2021 6 +13.8 +2.3
Carlos Correa SS MIN Free agency 2022 4 +10.5 +2.6 3.8
Ryan Jeffers C MIN Draft 2018 7 +10.3 +1.5
Bailey Ober P MIN Draft 2017 6 +9.9 +1.7
Pablo López P MIN Trade 2023 3 +9.6 +3.2 17.1
Sonny Gray P MIN Trade 2022 2 +7.8 +3.9 2.2
Nelson Cruz DH/OF MIN Free agency 2019 3 +6.5 +2.2 20.8
Willi Castro 2B/OF MIN Free agency 2022 3 +5.4 +1.8 9.4
Kenta Maeda P MIN Trade 2020 3 +5.3 +1.8 31.7
Royce Lewis 3B MIN Draft 2022 5 +5.2 +1.0
Michael Pineda P MIN Free agency 2017 3 +4.9 +1.6 11.8
Trevor Larnach DH/OF MIN Draft 2018 6 +4.8 +0.8
Josh Donaldson 3B MIN Free agency 2020 2 +4.2 +2.1 11.8
Jake Odorizzi P MIN Free agency 2019 2 +4.2 +2.1 1.0
Matt Wallner OF MIN Draft 2022 4 +4.2 +1.1
Jhoan Durán P MIN Draft 2022 4 +3.8 +1.0
Jason Castro C MIN Trade 2017 3 +3.4 +1.1 5.6
Carlos Santana 1B MIN Free agency 2024 1 +2.9 +2.9 17.0
Simeon Woods Richardson P MIN Draft 2022 2 +2.9 +1.5
Ehire Adrianza 3B/SS MIN Trade 2017 4 +2.9 +0.7 2.1
Kody Clemens 1B MIN Trade 2025 2 +2.9 +1.5 2.7
Luke Keaschall 2B MIN Draft 2025 2 +2.8 +1.4
Jake Cave OF MIN Trade 2018 4 +2.6 +0.6
Gio Urshela 3B MIN Trade 2022 1 +2.6 +2.6 2.3
Cole Sands P MIN Draft 2022 2 +2.1 +1.0
Jonathan Schoop 2B MIN Free agency 2018 1 +2.1 +2.1 9.4
Chris Paddack P MIN Trade 2022 4 +2.0 +0.5 1.0
Harrison Bader OF MIN Trade 2025 1 +2.0 +2.0 3.8
Marwin González SS MIN Free agency 2019 2 +1.9 +0.9 6.6
Michael Taylor OF MIN Trade 2023 1 +1.9 +1.9 7.2
Kyle Farmer 2B/SS MIN Trade 2023 2 +1.9 +1.0 5.2
Edouard Julien 2B MIN Draft 2023 1 +1.8 +1.8
Martín Pérez P MIN Free agency 2019 1 +1.8 +1.8 8.0
Christian Vázquez C MIN Free agency 2022 3 +1.8 +0.6 3.2
Taj Bradley P MIN Trade 2025 2 +1.6 +0.8 0.5
Austin Martin OF MIN Draft 2024 2 +1.6 +0.8
David Festa P MIN Draft 2024 2 +1.4 +0.7
Zebby Matthews P MIN Draft 2024 2 +1.4 +0.7
Gary Sánchez C MIN Trade 2022 1 +1.4 +1.4 1.4
Brooks Lee 3B/SS MIN Draft 2024 2 +1.3 +0.6
José Miranda 1B/3B MIN Draft 2022 2 +1.3 +0.7
C. J. Cron 1B MIN Trade 2019 1 +1.3 +1.3 5.7
Randy Dobnak P MIN Draft 2019 2 +1.2 +0.6
Chris Gimenez C MIN Free agency 2017 2 +1.1 +0.6 3.1
Emilio Pagán P MIN Trade 2022 1 +1.1 +1.1 4.5
Connor Prielipp P MIN Draft 2026 1 +1.1 +1.1
Donovan Solano 2B MIN Free agency 2023 1 +1.1 +1.1 4.2
Brock Stewart P MIN Free agency 2022 3 +1.0 +0.3 3.2
Andrew Morris P MIN Draft 2026 1 +0.9 +0.9
Andrelton Simmons SS MIN Free agency 2021 1 +0.9 +0.9 1.1
Dylan Bundy P MIN Free agency 2021 1 +0.8 +0.8 0.8
Víctor Caratini C MIN Free agency 2026 1 +0.8 +0.8 1.2
Tyler Clippard P MIN Free agency 2019 1 +0.8 +0.8 10.3
Zach Duke P MIN Trade 2018 1 +0.8 +0.8 0.3
Joey Gallo OF MIN Free agency 2022 1 +0.7 +0.7 2.8
Rich Hill P MIN Free agency 2019 1 +0.7 +0.7 9.4
Lance Lynn P MIN Trade 2018 1 +0.7 +0.7 0.3
Ty France 1B MIN Trade 2025 1 +0.7 +0.7 1.3
Mick Abel P MIN Trade 2025 2 +0.6 +0.3
Matt Belisle P MIN Free agency 2017 1 +0.6 +0.6 1.6
Devin Smeltzer P MIN Trade 2018 3 +0.6 +0.2
Matt Wisler P MIN Trade 2020 1 +0.6 +0.6 7.7
Yoendrys Gómez P MIN Trade 2026 1 +0.6 +0.6 0.9
Eric Orze P MIN Trade 2026 1 +0.6 +0.6 0.9
Chris Archer P MIN Free agency 2022 1 +0.5 +0.5 0.6
Josh Winder P MIN Draft 2022 3 +0.5 +0.2
Fernando Rodney P MIN Trade 2018 1 +0.5 +0.5 0.2
Dillon Gee P MIN Trade 2017 1 +0.5 +0.5 1.5
Justin Topa P MIN Trade 2024 2 +0.5 +0.3 0.4
Jorge Alcalá P MIN Trade 2018 4 +0.4 +0.1
Kody Funderburk P MIN Draft 2023 2 +0.4 +0.2
Rob Refsnyder OF MIN Free agency 2020 1 +0.4 +0.4 0.5
John Gant P MIN Trade 2021 1 +0.4 +0.4 0.5
Trevor Megill P MIN Trade 2022 1 +0.4 +0.4 0.4
Kyle Garlick OF MIN Trade 2021 2 +0.4 +0.2 0.4
Danny Coulombe P MIN Free agency 2019 4 +0.3 +0.1 0.1
Ryan Fitzgerald 2B/SS MIN Draft 2025 1 +0.3 +0.3
Juan Minaya P MIN Free agency 2020 2 +0.3 +0.1 0.2
Logan Forsythe 2B MIN Trade 2018 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.1
Tyler Austin 1B MIN Trade 2018 2 +0.3 +0.1 0.1
Aaron Sanchez P MIN Trade 2022 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.3
Jhonny Pereda C MIN Trade 2025 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.6
Tyler Mahle P MIN Trade 2023 1 +0.3 +0.3 1.4
Ryan Kreidler 3B/SS MIN Trade 2026 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.5
Alex Avila C MIN Free agency 2019 1 +0.2 +0.2 2.4
José De León P MIN Free agency 2022 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.7
Dallas Keuchel P MIN Free agency 2023 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.6
Cody Laweryson P MIN Draft 2025 1 +0.2 +0.2
Kendry Rojas P MIN Trade 2025 1 +0.2 +0.2
Josh Staumont P MIN Free agency 2023 1 +0.2 +0.2 1.3
Bartolo Colón P MIN Trade 2017 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.5
Jaime García P MIN Trade 2017 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.6
Oliver Drake P MIN Trade 2018 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.1
Dylan Floro P MIN Trade 2023 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.8
Garrett Acton P MIN Trade 2026 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.2
Willians Astudillo C/3B MIN Trade 2018 2 +0.1 +0.0
Homer Bailey P MIN Free agency 2019 1 +0.1 +0.1 1.3
Charlie Barnes P MIN Draft 2017 1 +0.1 +0.1
Josh Bell 1B/DH MIN Free agency 2025 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.2
Scott Blewett P MIN Free agency 2024 2 +0.1 +0.0 0.3
Diego Castillo 2B/SS MIN Trade 2024 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.8
Alex Colomé P MIN Free agency 2021 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.1
Michael Helman OF MIN Draft 2024 1 +0.1 +0.1
Ronny Henriquez P MIN Trade 2022 2 +0.1 +0.1
Alex Jackson C MIN Trade 2025 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.1
Darren McCaughan P MIN Free agency 2024 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.3
Pierson Ohl P MIN Draft 2025 1 +0.1 +0.1
Gregorio Petit 2B/SS MIN Free agency 2017 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0
JT Riddle SS MIN Free agency 2021 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.1
Sergio Romo P MIN Trade 2019 2 +0.1 +0.1 2.3
Nick Vincent P MIN Free agency 2021 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.2
Bobby Wilson C MIN Free agency 2017 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.1
José Ureña P MIN Trade 2025 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.2
Mike Morin P MIN Trade 2019 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.4
Austin Voth P MIN Trade 2026 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.1
Jhon Romero P MIN Trade 2022 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.1
Tommy Nance P MIN Trade 2026 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.2
Jack Anderson P MIN Trade 2026 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.2
Orlando Arcia SS MIN Free agency 2026 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Anthony Banda P MIN Trade 2026 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Caleb Boushley P MIN Free agency 2024 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Diego Castillo P MIN Free agency 2024 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Mark Contreras OF MIN Draft 2022 1 +0.0 +0.0
Daniel Duarte P MIN Free agency 2024 -0.0
Cory Gearrin P MIN Free agency 2020 -0.0
Ryan LaMarre OF MIN Free agency 2017 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.3
Derek Law P MIN Free agency 2020 -0.0
Tzu-Wei Lin 2B/SS MIN Free agency 2020 -0.0
Gabriel Moya P MIN Trade 2017 1 -0.0 -0.0
Andrew Stevenson OF MIN Free agency 2023 -0.0
Ronald Torreyes 2B/3B/SS MIN Free agency 2018 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Louis Varland P MIN Draft 2022 3 +0.0 +0.0
Chris Heston P MIN Trade 2017 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Chase De Jong P MIN Trade 2018 1 -0.0 -0.0 0.0
Brooks Kriske P MIN Trade 2025 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Shaun Anderson P MIN Trade 2021 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Jordan Luplow OF MIN Trade 2023 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Trevor Richards P MIN Trade 2024 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Jonah Bride 1B/3B MIN Trade 2025 -0.1
Jair Camargo C/DH MIN Draft 2024 -0.1
Dietrich Enns P MIN Trade 2017 -0.1
Luke Farrell P MIN Free agency 2020 -0.1
Zack Littell P MIN Trade 2017 1 -0.1 -0.1
Ian Miller OF MIN Trade 2019 -0.1
Erasmo Ramírez P MIN Free agency 2025 -0.1
Alan Roden OF MIN Trade 2025 -0.1
Tristan Gray 3B MIN Trade 2026 -0.2
Caleb Hamilton C/1B MIN Draft 2022 -0.2
Anthony Misiewicz P MIN Free agency 2025 -0.2
Steven Okert P MIN Trade 2024 -0.2
Brent Rooker DH/OF MIN Draft 2017 1 -0.2 -0.2
Travis Adams P MIN Draft 2025 1 -0.3 -0.3
Kyle Barraclough P MIN Free agency 2021 -0.3
Brent Headrick P MIN Draft 2023 -0.3
Jay Jackson P MIN Free agency 2024 -0.3
Matt Magill P MIN Free agency 2018 1 -0.3 -0.3 0.6
Addison Reed P MIN Free agency 2018 -0.3
Nik Turley P MIN Trade 2017 -0.3
Jordan Balazovic P MIN Draft 2023 -0.4
Gilberto Celestino OF MIN Trade 2018 1 -0.4 -0.4
Carson McCusker OF MIN Draft 2025 -0.4
Tim Beckham SS MIN Free agency 2022 -0.5
Dereck Rodríguez P MIN Free agency 2022 -0.5
Mickey Gasper C/DH MIN Trade 2024 -0.7
Logan Morrison 1B/OF MIN Free agency 2018 -0.7
Jermaine Palacios 2B/SS MIN Draft 2022 -0.8
Matt Shoemaker P MIN Free agency 2021 -0.8
Joe Smith P MIN Free agency 2022 -0.8
DaShawn Keirsey OF MIN Draft 2024 -0.9

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

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