RRosternomics
Craig Breslow

Craig Breslow

★ active

Born Aug 8, 1980 · New Haven, CT · age 45

A former MLB pitcher and Yale graduate turned Boston Red Sox chief baseball officer, hired to modernize the club's pitching development and analytics.

3 seasons with salary-era data across 1 stint. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

Overview

Titles0
Pennants0
Playoffs1
Record223–203
Win %0.523
+1.7GM WAR — wins above a replacement GM (org-adjusted, shrunk; per season) ±7.139th/195 execs
7.3Depth — 2+ WAR regulars per season (the breadth that drives TAB, not stars)37th/195 execs
-4.3Dead WAR — WAR/yr bled by sub-replacement players (closer to 0 = better)39th/195 execs
39%Dead money — payroll on <0.5-WAR players (lower = better)132nd/195 execs
$32MCheap-talent surplus — $/yr of value from cost-controlled (pre-arb/arb) players above their pay; the selection engine, and the stickiest GM skill we track43rd/195 execs
$15MDrafted surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own draftees (the develop-from-the-draft engine)32nd/195 execs
$3MTraded-for surplus — cheap-talent surplus from cost-controlled players he acquired via trade85th/195 execs
$0MInt'l surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own international signees137th/195 execs
+16.6TAB — talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation), tenure total43rd/195 execs
+6.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + the non-repeatable luck of converting talent to wins)56th/195 execs
2.72Acquisition Leverage — playoff pts per acquired WAR, graded once in the year each deal's wins arrive (the repeatable decision skill)53rd/195 execs
-21Roster surplus $M80th/195 execs

Tenure breakdown

TeamRoleYearsSzns WAB WAB/yr TAB WAR surp HG Trade FA R5 AcqLev W-L% POPenWS Surp $M
Red Sox POBO/GM 2024–present 3 +6.0 +2.00 +16.6 -3.2 +8.5 +2.3 +1.6 -0.3 2.72 0.523 1 -21
Career total (1985+ data) 3 +6.0 +16.6 -3.2 +8.5 +2.3 +1.6 -0.3 2.72 0.523 1 -21

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+8.5
Trade+2.3
Free agency+1.6
Rule 5 / minor draft-0.3
Sourcing mix: 23% draft · 39% FA · 38% trade · 0% R5

Roster value distribution — career average — depth vs. stars

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR, averaged across Craig Breslow's seasons. Bars = his rosters; the black line = the league-average player at each slot. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge.

Players acquired — 58 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year Szns fWAR WAR/yr Lev
Garrett Crochet P BOS Trade 2024 2 +6.1 +3.1 22.4
Aroldis Chapman P BOS Free agency 2024 2 +3.7 +1.8 9.9
Alex Bregman 3B BOS Free agency 2025 1 +3.5 +3.5 13.3
Willson Contreras C BOS Trade 2025 1 +3.3 +3.3 5.5
Roman Anthony DH/OF BOS Draft 2025 2 +3.0 +1.5
Ranger Suarez P BOS Free agency 2026 1 +3.0 +3.0 5.1
Carlos Narváez C BOS Trade 2024 2 +2.8 +1.4 10.0
Tyler O'Neill OF BOS Trade 2024 1 +2.5 +2.5 11.7
Payton Tolle P BOS Draft 2025 1 +2.1 +2.1
Lucas Giolito P BOS Free agency 2024 1 +2.0 +2.0 7.3
Connelly Early P BOS Draft 2025 2 +1.8 +0.9
Sonny Gray P BOS Trade 2026 1 +1.8 +1.8 3.5
Romy Gonzalez 1B/2B BOS Trade 2024 2 +1.6 +0.8 1.1
Caleb Durbin 3B BOS Trade 2026 1 +1.5 +1.5 3.0
Isiah Kiner-Falefa SS BOS Free agency 2026 1 +1.1 +1.1 2.4
Greg Weissert P BOS Trade 2024 2 +1.1 +0.6 2.4
Cooper Criswell P BOS Trade 2024 1 +1.1 +1.1 5.1
Hunter Dobbins P BOS Draft 2025 1 +1.0 +1.0
Justin Wilson P BOS Free agency 2024 1 +1.0 +1.0 3.7
Sean Newcomb P BOS Trade 2025 1 +0.7 +0.7 2.6
Tayron Guerrero P BOS Free agency 2026 1 +0.6 +0.6 1.3
Patrick Sandoval P BOS Free agency 2024 1 +0.5 +0.5 1.1
Anthony Seigler 2B/3B BOS Trade 2026 1 +0.5 +0.5 1.0
Nate Eaton 3B/OF BOS Free agency 2024 2 +0.4 +0.2 1.2
Nick Sogard 2B/3B BOS Draft 2024 2 +0.4 +0.2
Nathaniel Lowe 1B BOS Trade 2025 1 +0.4 +0.4 1.6
Kyle Harrison P BOS Trade 2025 1 +0.4 +0.4 1.3
Cam Booser P BOS Draft 2024 1 +0.3 +0.3
Luis Guerrero P BOS Draft 2024 1 +0.3 +0.3
Marcelo Mayer 2B/3B BOS Draft 2025 1 +0.3 +0.3
Jovani Morán P BOS Trade 2024 2 +0.3 +0.1 0.1
Tyler Samaniego P BOS Trade 2025 1 +0.2 +0.2
Nick Burdi P BOS Free agency 2025 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.3
Eduardo Rivera P BOS Draft 2026 1 +0.1 +0.1
Chase Shugart P BOS Draft 2024 1 +0.1 +0.1
Naoyuki Uwasawa P BOS Trade 2024 1 +0.1 +0.1
José De León P BOS Trade 2025 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.4
Quinn Priester P BOS Trade 2024 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.5
Jhostynxon Garcia OF BOS Draft 2025 -0.0
Liam Hendriks P BOS Free agency 2024 -0.0
Andruw Monasterio 2B/3B BOS Trade 2026 -0.0
Zach Penrod P BOS Draft 2024 -0.0
Dominic Smith 1B/OF BOS Free agency 2024 1 -0.0 -0.0 1.6
Ryan Watson P BOS Trade 2025 -0.0
Tyler Heineman C BOS Trade 2024 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Danny Jansen C BOS Trade 2024 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Tsung-Che Cheng SS BOS Trade 2026 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Danny Coulombe P BOS Free agency 2026 -0.1
Tommy Kahnle P BOS Free agency 2026 -0.1
Johan Oviedo P BOS Trade 2025 -0.1
Robert Stock P BOS Free agency 2025 1 -0.1 -0.1 0.3
Tyler Uberstine P BOS Draft 2026 -0.1
Jamie Westbrook 2B BOS Rule 5 2024 -0.1
Kristian Campbell 2B BOS Draft 2025 -0.2
Isaiah Campbell P BOS Free agency 2024 -0.4
Bailey Horn P BOS Trade 2024 -0.5
Mickey Gasper C/DH BOS Draft 2024 -0.6
Abraham Toro 2B/3B BOS Free agency 2025 -0.7

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

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