RRosternomics
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J.J. Picollo

J.J. Picollo

★ active

General manager for the Royals (2021–present).

6 seasons with salary-era data across 1 stint. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

Overview

Titles0
Pennants0
Playoffs1
Record406–509
Win %0.444
+0.3GM WAR — wins above a replacement GM (org-adjusted, shrunk; per season) ±5.770th/195 execs
3.8Depth — 2+ WAR regulars per season (the breadth that drives TAB, not stars)172nd/195 execs
-5.8Dead WAR — WAR/yr bled by sub-replacement players (closer to 0 = better)128th/195 execs
44%Dead money — payroll on <0.5-WAR players (lower = better)158th/195 execs
$35MCheap-talent surplus — $/yr of value from cost-controlled (pre-arb/arb) players above their pay; the selection engine, and the stickiest GM skill we track32nd/195 execs
$11MDrafted surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own draftees (the develop-from-the-draft engine)61st/195 execs
$-2MTraded-for surplus — cheap-talent surplus from cost-controlled players he acquired via trade181st/195 execs
$0MInt'l surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own international signees113th/195 execs
-22.8TAB — talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation), tenure total145th/195 execs
-32.2WAB — realized wins (TAB + the non-repeatable luck of converting talent to wins)163rd/195 execs
1.84Acquisition Leverage — playoff pts per acquired WAR, graded once in the year each deal's wins arrive (the repeatable decision skill)89th/195 execs
-34Roster surplus $M92nd/195 execs

Tenure breakdown

TeamRoleYearsSzns WAB WAB/yr TAB WAR surp HG Trade FA R5 AcqLev W-L% POPenWS Surp $M
▸ Royals GM 2021–present 6 -32.2 -5.37 -22.8 -5.3 +61.4 +0.6 +6.9 +0.0 1.84 0.444 1–– -34
Career total (1985+ data) 6 -32.2 -22.8 -5.3 +61.4 +0.6 +6.9 +0.0 1.84 0.444 1– – -34

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

by valueby volume

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+61.4
Trade+0.6
Free agency+6.9
Rule 5 / minor draft+0.0
Sourcing mix: 75% draft · 19% FA · 6% trade · 0% R5

Roster value distribution — career average — depth vs. stars

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR, averaged across J.J. Picollo's seasons. Bars = his rosters; the black line = the league-average player at each slot. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge.

Players acquired — 98 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year Szns fWAR WAR/yr Lev
Bobby Witt SS KCR Draft 2022 5 +31.4 +6.3 –
Maikel García 3B KCR Draft 2022 5 +10.5 +2.1 –
Cole Ragans P KCR Trade 2023 3 +9.1 +3.0 0.2
Michael Wacha P KCR Free agency 2023 3 +8.8 +2.9 11.9
Seth Lugo P KCR Free agency 2023 3 +6.4 +2.1 16.6
Vinnie Pasquantino 1B KCR Draft 2022 4 +4.4 +1.1 –
Freddy Fermin C KCR Draft 2022 3 +3.7 +1.2 –
Michael Taylor OF KCR Trade 2021 2 +3.7 +1.8 0.6
Michael Massey 2B KCR Draft 2022 4 +3.4 +0.9 –
Noah Cameron P KCR Draft 2025 2 +3.2 +1.6 –
Carter Jensen C/DH KCR Draft 2025 2 +2.5 +1.2 –
Dairon Blanco OF KCR Draft 2022 2 +1.7 +0.8 –
Andrew Benintendi OF KCR Trade 2021 2 +1.4 +0.7 0.4
Aroldis Chapman P KCR Trade 2023 1 +1.3 +1.3 0.1
Mike Yastrzemski OF KCR Trade 2025 1 +1.3 +1.3 2.6
Michael Lorenzen P KCR Free agency 2025 2 +1.2 +0.6 1.8
John Schreiber P KCR Trade 2024 2 +1.0 +0.5 4.0
Alec Marsh P KCR Draft 2023 1 +0.9 +0.9 –
Taylor Clarke P KCR Free agency 2021 2 +0.8 +0.4 0.0
Carlos Estévez P KCR Free agency 2025 1 +0.8 +0.8 2.2
Nick Loftin 2B KCR Draft 2023 3 +0.8 +0.3 –
Lane Thomas OF KCR Free agency 2025 1 +0.8 +0.8 0.6
Drew Waters OF KCR Trade 2022 2 +0.7 +0.4 –
Ryan Yarbrough P KCR Trade 2023 1 +0.7 +0.7 0.1
Paul DeJong SS KCR Trade 2024 1 +0.7 +0.7 2.6
Ryan Bergert P KCR Trade 2025 1 +0.7 +0.7 1.4
Luinder Avila P KCR Draft 2025 2 +0.6 +0.3 –
Isaac Collins OF KCR Trade 2025 1 +0.6 +0.6 0.4
James McArthur P KCR Trade 2023 2 +0.6 +0.3 –
Austin Cox P KCR Draft 2023 1 +0.5 +0.5 –
Garrett Hampson 2B/OF KCR Free agency 2023 1 +0.5 +0.5 1.8
Stephen Kolek P KCR Trade 2025 2 +0.5 +0.2 1.9
Tyler Tolbert OF KCR Draft 2025 2 +0.5 +0.2 –
Domingo Tapia P KCR Trade 2021 1 +0.5 +0.5 0.2
Hanser Alberto 2B/3B KCR Free agency 2021 1 +0.4 +0.4 0.1
Lucas Erceg P KCR Trade 2024 2 +0.3 +0.1 5.2
Amir Garrett P KCR Trade 2022 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.0
Luke Maile C KCR Free agency 2025 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.6
John Rave OF KCR Draft 2025 2 +0.3 +0.2 –
Joel Payamps P KCR Trade 2021 2 +0.3 +0.1 0.1
Hunter Harvey P KCR Trade 2025 1 +0.3 +0.3 1.0
Jordan Lyles P KCR Free agency 2022 2 +0.2 +0.1 0.0
Elías Díaz C KCR Trade 2026 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.1
Luke Weaver P KCR Trade 2022 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.0
Wyatt Mills P KCR Trade 2022 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.0
Nelson Velázquez DH/OF KCR Trade 2023 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.1
José Cuas P KCR Draft 2022 2 +0.1 +0.1 –
John McMillon P KCR Draft 2023 1 +0.1 +0.1 –
Daniel Mengden P KCR Free agency 2022 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0
Matt Peacock P KCR Trade 2022 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.0
Will Klein P KCR Trade 2024 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.4
Jake Brentz P KCR Trade 2021 1 +0.0 +0.0 –
Tyler Duffey P KCR Free agency 2024 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Mike Mayers P KCR Free agency 2022 – -0.0 – –
Logan Porter C KCR Draft 2023 1 +0.0 +0.0 –
Andrew Velazquez SS KCR Free agency 2026 – -0.0 – –
Anthony Veneziano P KCR Draft 2023 2 +0.0 +0.0 –
Nick Wittgren P KCR Free agency 2022 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Josh Taylor P KCR Trade 2023 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Anthony Misiewicz P KCR Trade 2022 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Trevor Richards P KCR Trade 2025 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Walter Pennington P KCR Trade 2024 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Dan Altavilla P KCR Free agency 2023 – -0.1 – –
Jonathan Bowlan P KCR Draft 2023 1 -0.1 -0.1 –
Tyler Cropley C KCR Draft 2023 – -0.1 – –
Steven Cruz P KCR Trade 2023 3 -0.1 -0.0 –
Nate Eaton 3B/OF KCR Draft 2022 1 -0.1 -0.1 –
Tyler Gentry OF KCR Draft 2024 – -0.1 – –
Brewer Hicklen OF KCR Draft 2022 – -0.1 – –
Brooks Kriske P KCR Free agency 2022 – -0.1 – –
Alex Lange P KCR Free agency 2025 – -0.1 – –
Starling Marte OF KCR Free agency 2026 – -0.1 – –
Josh Rojas 2B/3B KCR Free agency 2026 – -0.1 – –
Samad Taylor OF KCR Trade 2022 – -0.1 – –
Cavan Biggio 2B KCR Free agency 2025 – -0.2 – –
Mason Black P KCR Trade 2025 – -0.2 – –
Jac Caglianone OF KCR Draft 2025 1 -0.2 -0.2 –
Rich Hill P KCR Free agency 2025 – -0.2 – –
Sam Long P KCR Free agency 2023 1 -0.2 -0.2 0.6
Matt Sauer P KCR Draft 2024 – -0.2 – –
Mitch Spence P KCR Trade 2026 – -0.2 – –
Chris Stratton P KCR Free agency 2023 1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1
Arodys Vizcaíno P KCR Free agency 2022 – -0.2 – –
CJ Alexander 3B KCR Trade 2022 – -0.3 – –
Wade Davis P KCR Free agency 2021 4 -0.3 -0.1 1.8
Matt Duffy 3B KCR Free agency 2023 – -0.3 – –
Bailey Falter P KCR Trade 2025 1 -0.3 -0.3 0.0
Eli Morgan P KCR Free agency 2026 – -0.3 – –
Ronald Bolaños P KCR Trade 2021 1 -0.3 -0.3 0.1
Kameron Misner OF KCR Trade 2025 – -0.4 – –
Collin Snider P KCR Draft 2022 – -0.4 – –
Jackie Bradley OF KCR Free agency 2023 – -0.5 – –
Adam Frazier 2B/OF KCR Free agency 2024 1 -0.5 -0.5 1.3
Franmil Reyes DH/OF KCR Free agency 2023 – -0.5 – –
Carlos Santana 1B KCR Trade 2022 1 -0.6 -0.6 0.0
Nick Pratto 1B KCR Draft 2022 1 -0.8 -0.8 –
Hunter Renfroe OF KCR Free agency 2023 1 -0.8 -0.8 0.4
MJ Melendez OF KCR Draft 2022 1 -1.1 -1.1 –

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

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Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.