RRosternomics
Matt Arnold

Matt Arnold

★ active

Succeeded David Stearns atop Milwaukee's baseball operations and has kept the small-market Brewers a perennial NL Central contender.

6 seasons with salary-era data across 1 stint. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

Overview

Titles0
Pennants0
Playoffs4
Record527–386
Win %0.577
+4.9GM WAR — wins above a replacement GM (org-adjusted, shrunk; per season) ±5.712th/195 execs
7.5Depth — 2+ WAR regulars per season (the breadth that drives TAB, not stars)33rd/195 execs
-4.4Dead WAR — WAR/yr bled by sub-replacement players (closer to 0 = better)46th/195 execs
27%Dead money — payroll on <0.5-WAR players (lower = better)36th/195 execs
$75MCheap-talent surplus — $/yr of value from cost-controlled (pre-arb/arb) players above their pay; the selection engine, and the stickiest GM skill we track4th/195 execs
$15MDrafted surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own draftees (the develop-from-the-draft engine)36th/195 execs
$31MTraded-for surplus — cheap-talent surplus from cost-controlled players he acquired via trade7th/195 execs
$-0MInt'l surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own international signees167th/195 execs
+63.5TAB — talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation), tenure total12th/195 execs
+82.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + the non-repeatable luck of converting talent to wins)9th/195 execs
4.20Acquisition Leverage — playoff pts per acquired WAR, graded once in the year each deal's wins arrive (the repeatable decision skill)11th/195 execs
+261Roster surplus $M6th/195 execs

Tenure breakdown

TeamRoleYearsSzns WAB WAB/yr TAB WAR surp HG Trade FA R5 AcqLev W-L% POPenWS Surp $M
Brewers GM 2021–present 6 +82.7 +13.79 +63.5 +60.2 +47.8 +22.3 -10.2 +2.5 4.20 0.577 4 +261
Career total (1985+ data) 6 +82.7 +63.5 +60.2 +47.8 +22.3 -10.2 +2.5 4.20 0.577 4 +261

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+47.8
Trade+22.3
Free agency-10.2
Rule 5 / minor draft+2.5
Sourcing mix: 42% draft · 13% FA · 43% trade · 2% R5

Roster value distribution — career average — depth vs. stars

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR, averaged across Matt Arnold's seasons. Bars = his rosters; the black line = the league-average player at each slot. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge.

Players acquired — 128 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year Szns fWAR WAR/yr Lev
William Contreras C MIL Trade 2022 4 +16.6 +4.1 8.6
Willy Adames SS MIL Trade 2021 4 +15.9 +4.0 19.0
Brice Turang 2B MIL Draft 2023 3 +10.5 +3.5
Jackson Chourio OF MIL Draft 2024 3 +8.7 +2.9
Sal Frelick OF MIL Draft 2023 3 +6.0 +2.0
Jacob Misiorowski P MIL Draft 2025 2 +5.9 +2.9
Joey Ortiz 3B/SS MIL Trade 2024 3 +5.8 +1.9 11.6
Garrett Mitchell OF MIL Draft 2022 5 +5.5 +1.1
Trevor Megill P MIL Trade 2023 4 +5.2 +1.3 1.6
Kolten Wong 2B MIL Free agency 2021 2 +4.9 +2.5 15.4
Chad Patrick P MIL Trade 2023 2 +3.6 +1.8
Abner Uribe P MIL Draft 2023 3 +3.1 +1.0
Andrew Vaughn 1B/OF MIL Trade 2025 2 +3.0 +1.5 12.4
Víctor Caratini C MIL Trade 2022 2 +2.6 +1.3 6.2
Caleb Durbin 3B MIL Trade 2024 1 +2.6 +2.6
Jake Bauers 1B/OF MIL Free agency 2025 3 +2.5 +0.8 0.3
Tobias Myers P MIL Rule 5 2024 2 +2.5 +1.3
Blake Perkins OF MIL Draft 2023 3 +2.5 +0.8
Isaac Collins OF MIL Draft 2024 1 +2.4 +2.4
Hunter Renfroe OF MIL Trade 2021 1 +2.4 +2.4 10.4
Hoby Milner P MIL Trade 2022 3 +2.4 +0.8 3.2
Kyle Harrison P MIL Trade 2026 1 +2.2 +2.2 17.8
Eric Lauer P MIL Trade 2021 2 +2.1 +1.0 11.5
Shane Drohan P MIL Trade 2026 1 +1.9 +1.9
Logan Henderson P MIL Draft 2025 2 +1.9 +1.0
Quinn Priester P MIL Trade 2025 1 +1.9 +1.9 12.3
Jared Koenig P MIL Free agency 2023 2 +1.7 +0.8 3.5
Joel Payamps P MIL Trade 2022 2 +1.7 +0.9 2.1
Brad Boxberger P MIL Free agency 2021 2 +1.6 +0.8 4.5
Colin Rea P MIL Free agency 2021 2 +1.5 +0.7 1.4
Gary Sánchez C MIL Free agency 2024 2 +1.2 +0.6 1.4
Rhys Hoskins 1B MIL Free agency 2024 2 +1.1 +0.5 0.8
Andruw Monasterio 2B/3B MIL Draft 2023 2 +1.0 +0.5
Joey Wiemer OF MIL Draft 2023 1 +1.0 +1.0
Robert Gasser P MIL Trade 2022 2 +0.9 +0.4
Joe Ross P MIL Free agency 2023 1 +0.9 +0.9 3.4
Mark Canha OF MIL Trade 2023 1 +0.9 +0.9 1.7
Jose Quintana P MIL Free agency 2025 1 +0.8 +0.8 5.4
DL Hall P MIL Trade 2024 3 +0.8 +0.3 0.7
Grant Anderson P MIL Trade 2025 2 +0.7 +0.3 2.5
Bryan Hudson P MIL Trade 2024 1 +0.7 +0.7 2.8
Carlos Santana 1B MIL Trade 2023 1 +0.7 +0.7 1.3
Eduardo Escobar 3B MIL Trade 2021 1 +0.7 +0.7 3.7
Rowdy Tellez 1B MIL Trade 2021 2 +0.7 +0.3 1.6
Jonathan Davis OF MIL Free agency 2021 1 +0.6 +0.6 2.5
Eric Haase C MIL Free agency 2023 2 +0.6 +0.3 0.9
Andrew McCutchen OF MIL Free agency 2022 1 +0.6 +0.6 2.6
Owen Miller 1B/2B MIL Trade 2022 1 +0.6 +0.6 1.8
Elvis Peguero P MIL Trade 2023 2 +0.6 +0.3 1.1
Frankie Montas P MIL Trade 2024 1 +0.5 +0.5 1.9
Aaron Civale P MIL Trade 2024 2 +0.5 +0.3 1.9
Brian Anderson 3B/OF MIL Free agency 2023 1 +0.4 +0.4 0.7
Peter Strzelecki P MIL Draft 2022 2 +0.4 +0.2
Tyler Alexander P MIL Trade 2025 1 +0.4 +0.4 2.8
Danny Jansen C MIL Trade 2025 1 +0.4 +0.4 2.8
Brandon Lockridge OF MIL Trade 2025 2 +0.3 +0.1 1.1
Pablo Reyes OF MIL Free agency 2021 1 +0.3 +0.3 1.6
Julio Teherán P MIL Free agency 2023 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.6
Hunter Strickland P MIL Trade 2021 1 +0.3 +0.3 1.9
Jake Cousins P MIL Trade 2021 2 +0.2 +0.1
Coleman Crow P MIL Trade 2023 1 +0.2 +0.2
David Hamilton 2B/SS MIL Trade 2026 1 +0.2 +0.2 1.5
Rob Zastryzny P MIL Free agency 2023 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.8
Luke Maile C MIL Trade 2021 1 +0.2 +0.2 1.1
Abraham Toro 2B/3B MIL Trade 2023 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.5
Enoli Paredes P MIL Trade 2024 1 +0.2 +0.2 0.8
Nick Mears P MIL Trade 2025 1 +0.2 +0.2 2.9
Brandon Sproat P MIL Trade 2026 1 +0.2 +0.2 1.2
Jake Bauers 1B/OF MIL Trade 2023 3 +0.1 +0.0 0.3
Steward Berroa OF MIL Trade 2025 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.3
Tyler Black 1B/DH MIL Draft 2024 2 +0.1 +0.0
Derek Fisher OF MIL Trade 2021 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.3
Brian Fitzpatrick P MIL Draft 2026 1 +0.1 +0.1
Kevin Herget P MIL Free agency 2024 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.4
Easton McGee P MIL Free agency 2023 2 +0.1 +0.1 0.6
Thomas Pannone P MIL Free agency 2022 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.2
Drew Rom P MIL Free agency 2025 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.4
Thyago Vieira P MIL Free agency 2023 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.1
Bryse Wilson P MIL Trade 2023 2 +0.1 +0.0 0.6
Josh Donaldson 3B MIL Trade 2023 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.1
Lance McCullers P MIL Trade 2026 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.7
J. B. Bukauskas P MIL Trade 2023 2 +0.1 +0.1 0.2
Jake Woodford P MIL Trade 2026 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.7
Mike Brosseau 3B MIL Trade 2022 1 +0.1 +0.1 2.6
Trevor Richards P MIL Trade 2021 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.7
John Axford P MIL Trade 2021 3 -0.0 -0.0
Blaine Hardy P MIL Free agency 2021 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.2
Alex Jackson C MIL Trade 2022 -0.0
Jahmai Jones DH/OF MIL Free agency 2023 -0.0
James Meeker P MIL Draft 2024 -0.0
Jeferson Quero C MIL Draft 2026 1 +0.0 +0.0
Carlos Rodriguez P MIL Draft 2024 2 +0.0 +0.0
Chris Roller OF MIL Trade 2023 -0.0
Pedro Severino C MIL Free agency 2021 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.2
Patrick Weigel P MIL Trade 2021 -0.0
Rob Zastryzny P MIL Trade 2025 1 -0.0 -0.0 0.8
Ryan Weber P MIL Trade 2021 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Shelby Miller P MIL Trade 2025 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Jakob Junis P MIL Trade 2024 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Elieser Hernández P MIL Trade 2024 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Braden Shewmake 3B/SS MIL Trade 2026 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.4
Janson Junk P MIL Trade 2023 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Luke Barker P MIL Draft 2022 -0.1
Caleb Boushley P MIL Draft 2023 -0.1
Trevor Gott P MIL Free agency 2021 -0.1
Jandel Gustave P MIL Trade 2021 -0.1
Dallas Keuchel P MIL Trade 2024 -0.1
J. C. Mejía P MIL Trade 2021 1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
Connor Sadzeck P MIL Free agency 2021 -0.1
Ethan Small P MIL Draft 2022 -0.1
Jordan Zimmermann P MIL Free agency 2021 -0.1
Oliver Dunn 3B MIL Trade 2023 1 -0.2 -0.2
Brewer Hicklen OF MIL Free agency 2023 -0.2
Luis Perdomo P MIL Free agency 2021 -0.2
Anthony Seigler 2B/3B MIL Draft 2025 -0.2
Connor Thomas P MIL Draft 2025 -0.2
Craig Yoho P MIL Draft 2025 -0.2
Bruce Zimmermann P MIL Free agency 2024 -0.2
Jason Alexander P MIL Draft 2022 -0.3
Clayton Andrews P MIL Draft 2023 -0.3
Zack Godley P MIL Free agency 2021 -0.3
Daniel Robertson 2B/3B/SS MIL Free agency 2021 -0.4
Luke Voit 1B/DH MIL Free agency 2023 -0.4
Greg Jones OF MIL Free agency 2025 -0.5
Trevor Kelley P MIL Free agency 2021 -0.5
Matt Bush P MIL Trade 2022 -0.7
Jesse Winker OF MIL Trade 2022 -0.8
Jackie Bradley OF MIL Free agency 2021 -1.7

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

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