Overview
Titles0
Pennants0
Playoffs1
Record324–384
Win %0.458
5.0Depth — 2+ WAR regulars per season (the breadth that drives TAB, not stars)148th/195 execs
-5.9Dead WAR — WAR/yr bled by sub-replacement players (closer to 0 = better)138th/195 execs
42%Dead money — payroll on <0.5-WAR players (lower = better)144th/195 execs
$28MCheap-talent surplus — $/yr of value from cost-controlled (pre-arb/arb) players above their pay; the selection engine, and the stickiest GM skill we track52nd/195 execs
$11MDrafted surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own draftees (the develop-from-the-draft engine)60th/195 execs
$20MTraded-for surplus — cheap-talent surplus from cost-controlled players he acquired via trade15th/195 execs
$-0MInt'l surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own international signees172nd/195 execs
-22.3TAB — talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation), tenure total143rd/195 execs
-26.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + the non-repeatable luck of converting talent to wins)157th/195 execs
1.62Acquisition Leverage — playoff pts per acquired WAR, graded once in the year each deal's wins arrive (the repeatable decision skill)101st/195 execs
Tenure breakdown
| Team | Role | Years | Szns | WAB | WAB/yr | TAB | WAR surp | HG | Trade | FA | R5 | AcqLev | W-L% | PO | Pen | WS | Surp $M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
▸  Reds |
POBO | 2018–2021 | 3 | -16.5 | -5.51 | -5.1 | -14.6 | +7.7 | -2.1 | -39.8 | +0.4 | 1.84 | 0.469 | 1 | – | – | -61 |
| ▸ Reds |
GM | 2016–2016 | 1 | -9.5 | -9.52 | -17.2 | -14.4 | +7.1 | +0.7 | -2.3 | -0.9 | 0.05 | 0.420 | – | – | – | -47 |
| Career total (1985+ data) | 5 | -26.0 | -22.3 | -29.0 | +14.9 | -1.4 | -42.1 | -0.6 | 1.62 | 0.458 | 1 | – | – | -108 | |||
Roster Construction
Build channels — net fWAR
Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.
Home-grown (draft/intl)+14.9
Trade-1.4
Free agency-42.1
Rule 5 / minor draft-0.6
Sourcing mix: 55% draft · 45% FA · 0% trade · 0% R5
Roster value distribution — career average — depth vs. stars
Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR, averaged across Dick Williams's seasons. Bars = his rosters; the black line = the league-average player at each slot. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge.
Players acquired — 80 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)
| Player | Pos | Team | How | Year | Szns | fWAR | WAR/yr | Lev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Gray | P | CIN |
Trade | 2019 | 3 | +8.7 | +2.9 | 2.2 |
| Jonathan India | 2B | CIN |
Draft | 2018 | 4 | +8.1 | +2.0 | – |
| TJ Friedl | OF | CIN |
Intl FA | 2016 | 5 | +7.6 | +1.5 | – |
| Nick Castellanos | 3B/OF | CIN |
Free agency | 2020 | 2 | +4.0 | +2.0 | 5.7 |
| Kyle Farmer | 2B/SS | CIN |
Free agency | 2020 | 4 | +3.9 | +1.0 | 0.1 |
| José Peraza | 2B/SS | CIN |
Trade | 2016 | 2 | +3.9 | +2.0 | 0.1 |
| Wade Miley | P | CIN |
Free agency | 2019 | 2 | +3.4 | +1.7 | 2.4 |
| Trevor Bauer | P | CIN |
Trade | 2019 | 2 | +3.3 | +1.7 | 0.5 |
| Scott Schebler | OF | CIN |
Trade | 2016 | 3 | +2.6 | +0.9 | 0.0 |
| Lucas Sims | P | CIN |
Trade | 2019 | 4 | +2.6 | +0.6 | 0.2 |
| Tanner Roark | P | CIN |
Trade | 2019 | 1 | +2.0 | +2.0 | 1.2 |
| Jose Iglesias | SS | CIN |
Free agency | 2019 | 1 | +1.8 | +1.8 | 1.1 |
| David Hernandez | P | CIN |
Free agency | 2018 | 2 | +1.5 | +0.7 | 0.2 |
| Tyler Naquin | OF | CIN |
Free agency | 2021 | 2 | +1.4 | +0.7 | 4.7 |
| Matt Harvey | P | CIN |
Trade | 2018 | 1 | +1.4 | +1.4 | 0.3 |
| Jared Hughes | P | CIN |
Trade | 2018 | 1 | +1.3 | +1.3 | 0.3 |
| Curt Casali | C | CIN |
Trade | 2018 | 3 | +1.3 | +0.4 | 0.0 |
| Yasiel Puig | OF | CIN |
Trade | 2019 | 1 | +1.2 | +1.2 | 0.7 |
| Blake Wood | P | CIN |
Trade | 2016 | 2 | +1.0 | +0.5 | 0.0 |
| Derek Dietrich | 2B/OF | CIN |
Free agency | 2019 | 1 | +0.6 | +0.6 | 0.4 |
| Dan Straily | P | CIN |
Trade | 2016 | 1 | +0.6 | +0.6 | 0.0 |
| Justin Wilson | P | CIN |
Trade | 2021 | 3 | +0.5 | +0.2 | 0.6 |
| Jeff Hoffman | P | CIN |
Trade | 2020 | 2 | +0.4 | +0.2 | 0.6 |
| Dylan Floro | P | CIN |
Trade | 2018 | 1 | +0.4 | +0.4 | 0.1 |
| Kevin Gausman | P | CIN |
Trade | 2019 | 1 | +0.4 | +0.4 | 0.3 |
| Joel Kuhnel | P | CIN |
Draft | 2016 | 2 | +0.3 | +0.1 | – |
| Reiver Sanmartin | P | CIN |
Trade | 2019 | 2 | +0.3 | +0.2 | – |
| Sean Doolittle | P | CIN |
Trade | 2021 | 1 | +0.3 | +0.3 | 0.9 |
| Freddy Galvis | SS | CIN |
Trade | 2019 | 2 | +0.3 | +0.1 | 0.1 |
| Art Warren | P | CIN |
Trade | 2021 | 1 | +0.3 | +0.3 | 1.8 |
| Matthew Bowman | P | CIN |
Trade | 2019 | 1 | +0.3 | +0.3 | 0.2 |
| Vladimir Gutiérrez | P | CIN |
Intl FA | 2016 | 1 | +0.2 | +0.2 | – |
| Luis Cessa | P | CIN |
Trade | 2021 | 3 | +0.2 | +0.1 | 1.8 |
| Ryan Lavarnway | C | CIN |
Free agency | 2019 | 1 | +0.2 | +0.2 | 0.1 |
| Tyler Thornburg | P | CIN |
Free agency | 2019 | 1 | +0.2 | +0.2 | 3.2 |
| Hernán Iribarren | 2B/OF | CIN |
Trade | 2016 | 1 | +0.2 | +0.2 | 0.0 |
| Brandon Finnegan | P | CIN |
Trade | 2016 | 2 | +0.2 | +0.1 | 0.0 |
| Delino DeShields | OF | CIN |
Trade | 2021 | 1 | +0.2 | +0.2 | 0.7 |
| Heath Hembree | P | CIN |
Trade | 2021 | 1 | +0.2 | +0.2 | 0.7 |
| Mason Williams | OF | CIN |
Trade | 2018 | 1 | +0.2 | +0.2 | 0.0 |
| Kyle Crockett | P | CIN |
Trade | 2018 | 1 | +0.2 | +0.2 | 0.1 |
| Josh VanMeter | 2B | CIN |
Trade | 2016 | 1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | – |
| José De León | P | CIN |
Trade | 2019 | 1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | 0.6 |
| Tim Federowicz | C | CIN |
Trade | 2018 | 1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | 0.0 |
| Mychal Givens | P | CIN |
Trade | 2021 | 1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | 0.5 |
| Archie Bradley | P | CIN |
Trade | 2020 | 1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | 2.5 |
| Matt Wisler | P | CIN |
Trade | 2018 | 1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | 0.0 |
| Jesse Biddle | P | CIN |
Free agency | 2020 | 1 | +0.0 | +0.0 | 0.0 |
| Kyle Dowdy | P | CIN |
Free agency | 2021 | 1 | +0.0 | +0.0 | 0.0 |
| Brooks Raley | P | CIN |
Trade | 2020 | 1 | +0.0 | +0.0 | 0.6 |
| Carson Fulmer | P | CIN |
Trade | 2021 | 1 | +0.0 | +0.0 | 0.0 |
| Steve Delabar | P | CIN |
Free agency | 2016 | – | -0.1 | – | – |
| Gabriel Guerrero | OF | CIN |
Trade | 2016 | – | -0.1 | – | – |
| R. J. Alaniz | P | CIN |
Free agency | 2020 | 1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | – |
| Brad Brach | P | CIN |
Free agency | 2021 | – | -0.1 | – | – |
| Nate Jones | P | CIN |
Free agency | 2020 | – | -0.1 | – | – |
| Michael Mariot | P | CIN |
Free agency | 2021 | – | -0.1 | – | – |
| Pedro Strop | P | CIN |
Free agency | 2020 | – | -0.1 | – | – |
| Tim Adleman | P | CIN |
Trade | 2016 | 1 | -0.2 | -0.2 | – |
| Rafael Lopez | C | CIN |
Free agency | 2016 | – | -0.2 | – | – |
| A. J. Morris | P | CIN |
Trade | 2016 | – | -0.2 | – | – |
| Christian Colón | 2B/3B | CIN |
Free agency | 2018 | 1 | -0.2 | -0.2 | 0.1 |
| Aramis Garcia | C | CIN |
Free agency | 2021 | – | -0.2 | – | – |
| Riley O'Brien | P | CIN |
Trade | 2020 | – | -0.2 | – | – |
| Max Schrock | OF | CIN |
Trade | 2021 | 1 | -0.2 | -0.2 | 0.6 |
| Dayán Díaz | P | CIN |
Trade | 2016 | – | -0.3 | – | – |
| Matt Davidson | 3B/DH | CIN |
Free agency | 2020 | – | -0.3 | – | – |
| Mike Moustakas | 3B | CIN |
Free agency | 2019 | 1 | -0.3 | -0.3 | 10.2 |
| Cliff Pennington | 2B/SS | CIN |
Free agency | 2018 | – | -0.3 | – | – |
| Ryan Hendrix | P | CIN |
Draft | 2016 | 1 | -0.4 | -0.4 | – |
| Shogo Akiyama | OF | CIN |
Draft | 2020 | 1 | -0.4 | -0.4 | – |
| Josh Osich | P | CIN |
Free agency | 2020 | – | -0.4 | – | – |
| Mark Payton | OF | CIN |
Trade | 2020 | – | -0.4 | – | – |
| Tim Melville | P | CIN |
Trade | 2016 | – | -0.5 | – | – |
| Ross Ohlendorf | P | CIN |
Free agency | 2016 | – | -0.5 | – | – |
| Nick Senzel | OF | CIN |
Draft | 2016 | 1 | -0.5 | -0.5 | – |
| Matt Kemp | OF | CIN |
Trade | 2018 | – | -0.6 | – | – |
| Jordan Pacheco | 1B/3B | CIN |
Free agency | 2016 | – | -0.7 | – | – |
| Stuart Turner | C | CIN |
Rule 5 | 2016 | – | -0.9 | – | – |
| Alfredo Simón | P | CIN |
Free agency | 2016 | 3 | -1.0 | -0.3 | 2.7 |
WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.
Graphs
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