RRosternomics
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Matt Silverman

General manager for the Rays (2015–2016).

2 seasons with salary-era data across 1 stint. All figures are franchise-level outcomes during the tenure, not solely attributable to one executive.

Overview

Titles0
Pennants0
Playoffs0
Record148–176
Win %0.457
+1.1GM WAR — wins above a replacement GM (org-adjusted, shrunk; per season) ±7.150th/195 execs
5.5Depth — 2+ WAR regulars per season (the breadth that drives TAB, not stars)130th/195 execs
-6.2Dead WAR — WAR/yr bled by sub-replacement players (closer to 0 = better)145th/195 execs
44%Dead money — payroll on <0.5-WAR players (lower = better)159th/195 execs
$51MCheap-talent surplus — $/yr of value from cost-controlled (pre-arb/arb) players above their pay; the selection engine, and the stickiest GM skill we track14th/195 execs
$7MDrafted surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own draftees (the develop-from-the-draft engine)87th/195 execs
$42MTraded-for surplus — cheap-talent surplus from cost-controlled players he acquired via trade3rd/195 execs
$2MInt'l surplus — cheap-talent surplus from his own international signees53rd/195 execs
+9.3TAB — talent above budget — roster-construction alpha (talent your budget bought above expectation), tenure total58th/195 execs
+0.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + the non-repeatable luck of converting talent to wins)73rd/195 execs
1.42Acquisition Leverage — playoff pts per acquired WAR, graded once in the year each deal's wins arrive (the repeatable decision skill)108th/195 execs
+68Roster surplus $M19th/195 execs

Tenure breakdown

TeamRoleYearsSzns WAB WAB/yr TAB WAR surp HG Trade FA R5 AcqLev W-L% POPenWS Surp $M
▸ Rays GM 2015–2016 2 +0.3 +0.14 +9.3 +21.4 +23.3 -8.1 -2.5 -0.3 1.42 0.457 ––– +68
Career total (1985+ data) 2 +0.3 +9.3 +21.4 +23.3 -8.1 -2.5 -0.3 1.42 0.457 –– – +68

Roster Construction

How the roster was sourced

by valueby volume

Share of acquired fWAR by channel vs. league average.

Build channels — net fWAR

Acquired minus surrendered / signed minus walked.

Home-grown (draft/intl)+23.3
Trade-8.1
Free agency-2.5
Rule 5 / minor draft-0.3
Sourcing mix: 57% draft · 6% FA · 36% trade · 1% R5

Roster value distribution — career average — depth vs. stars

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR, averaged across Matt Silverman's seasons. Bars = his rosters; the black line = the league-average player at each slot. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge.

Players acquired — 42 players, by realized fWAR for the franchise (scroll for more)

PlayerPosTeam How Year Szns fWAR WAR/yr Lev
Brandon Lowe 2B TBR Draft 2015 8 +16.8 +2.1 –
Logan Forsythe 2B TBR Trade 2015 2 +6.8 +3.4 6.5
Steven Souza OF TBR Trade 2015 3 +6.3 +2.1 2.7
Josh Lowe OF TBR Draft 2016 4 +4.5 +1.1 –
Daniel Robertson 2B/3B/SS TBR Trade 2015 3 +3.3 +1.1 –
Corey Dickerson OF TBR Trade 2016 2 +3.0 +1.5 0.3
Asdrúbal Cabrera SS TBR Free agency 2015 1 +2.6 +2.6 4.5
Matt Duffy 3B TBR Trade 2016 3 +2.5 +0.8 0.0
Andrew Kittredge P TBR Trade 2016 5 +1.9 +0.4 –
Erasmo Ramírez P TBR Trade 2015 2 +1.8 +0.9 4.0
Mike Brosseau 3B TBR Intl FA 2016 2 +1.7 +0.9 –
Steve Pearce 1B/OF TBR Trade 2016 1 +1.5 +1.5 0.7
Nate Karns P TBR Trade 2015 1 +1.5 +1.5 2.8
Brad Miller SS TBR Trade 2015 3 +1.4 +0.5 0.7
Chase Whitley P TBR Trade 2016 2 +0.8 +0.4 0.1
John Jaso C TBR Trade 2015 2 +0.7 +0.3 –
Logan Morrison 1B/OF TBR Trade 2015 2 +0.7 +0.3 0.3
Xavier Cedeño P TBR Trade 2015 2 +0.7 +0.3 1.3
J. P. Arencibia C TBR Free agency 2015 1 +0.6 +0.6 1.0
Wilson Ramos C TBR Free agency 2016 2 +0.6 +0.3 0.9
Adam Kolarek P TBR Rule 5 2015 1 +0.5 +0.5 –
Joey Butler DH/OF TBR Free agency 2015 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.6
Shane Peterson OF TBR Free agency 2016 1 +0.3 +0.3 0.4
Nathaniel Lowe 1B TBR Draft 2016 2 +0.2 +0.1 –
Tyler Sturdevant P TBR Trade 2016 1 +0.2 +0.2 –
Grady Sizemore OF TBR Trade 2015 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.3
Bobby Wilson C TBR Trade 2016 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.1
José Domínguez P TBR Trade 2015 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.1
Daniel Nava OF TBR Trade 2015 1 +0.1 +0.1 0.3
Ronald Belisario P TBR Free agency 2015 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.1
Eddie Gamboa P TBR Trade 2016 – -0.0 – –
Chih-Wei Hu P TBR Trade 2015 1 +0.0 +0.0 –
Diego Moreno P TBR Free agency 2016 – -0.0 – –
Everett Teaford P TBR Free agency 2015 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Ryan Webb P TBR Free agency 2016 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Alexei Ramírez SS TBR Trade 2016 1 +0.0 +0.0 0.0
Justin Marks P TBR Free agency 2016 – -0.2 – –
Allan Dykstra 1B TBR Trade 2015 – -0.3 – –
Jaff Decker OF TBR Free agency 2016 – -0.4 – –
Dana Eveland P TBR Free agency 2015 – -0.5 – –
Jake Elmore SS/OF TBR Free agency 2015 – -1.0 – –
Steve Geltz P TBR Trade 2015 1 -1.0 -1.0 0.4

WAB = wins above what the team's payroll predicted (resource-controlled). WAR surplus = era-neutral value (WAR minus payroll in win-equivalents). Roster surplus $M = dollar value of WAR over cost. Build channels (realized fWAR): HG = home-grown via amateur draft / international signing; Trade = acquired minus surrendered (incl. purchases/waivers); FA = signed minus walked; R5 = Rule-5 / minor-league-draft pickups. Credit follows the acquisition year — home-grown to the regime at the player's draft/signing (not whoever was in the chair when he peaked), trade/FA/R5 to the GM who made the move. Players acquired as prospects before debuting (e.g. Smoltz, Bagwell; Rule-5 picks like Uggla) are counted as trade/R5, not home-grown. All are franchise-level outcomes during the stint, not solely attributable to one executive.

Graphs

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Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.