RRosternomics

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Matt Dorey

Cubs

2014–2019 · 6 drafts · 241 picks

Early-Round Selection
+4.4
#51 of 172
rds 1–10, cost-ctrl
Late-Round Value
-22.8
#154 of 172
rds 11+, total career
Total DVOS
+7.5
#56 of 172
+1.25/draft
Hitter DVOS
+37.2
#63 of 172
reliable skill (+0.54)
Career fWAR drafted
107
#70 of 172

Value by position — where the value came from (descriptive)

PosPicksfWARDVOS
IF1243 +25.2
P2742 +23.0
OF422 +12.4
C3-0 -0.4

Position from each player's primary MLB fielding spot; never-MLB picks excluded. This table is descriptive, not a skill ranking — per-position DVOS isn't reliable at this granularity (split-half ≈ 0 for P/OF, a small-sample mirage for C). The one reliable position cut is Hitter vs Pitcher: drafting hitters (C/IF/OF) above slot repeats (split-half +0.54, the KPI above), but drafting pitchers above slot does not (≈ 0) — so we rank Hitter DVOS and leave pitcher out.

Top picks — who drove the value

YrOvrPlayerPosfWARExpDVOS
2014169Dylan CeaseP 24.80.8 +24.0
20144Kyle SchwarberDH 24.110.4 +13.7
20159Ian HappOF 22.67.9 +14.7
201824Nico Hoerner2B 21.35.0 +16.3
2014139Justin SteeleP 10.20.8 +9.4
2017195Jeremiah EstradaP 2.50.8 +1.7
2019252DJ HerzP 1.70.5 +1.2
201582Bryan HudsonP 1.51.1 +0.5
2015443Scott EffrossP 1.40.2 +1.2
2019912Bryan KingP 1.00.1 +0.9
2017105Keegan ThompsonP 0.91.0 -0.1
201730Alex LangeP 0.82.2 -1.5
2017465Jared Young1B 0.60.2 +0.4
2017165Nelson VelázquezDH 0.40.8 -0.4
2014199James NorwoodP 0.30.8 -0.5

By draft class

YearPicksfWARExpectedDVOS
20144059.0 23.3+35.7
20154024.6 19.9+4.7
201638-2.5 8.7-11.2
2017412.5 15.1-12.6
20184220.4 19.9+0.5
2019403.0 12.7-9.7
Total241 107 +7.5

DVOS = Σ (a pick's career fWAR − the expected fWAR for that overall slot), credited to the scouting director SABR lists for that draft. We only attribute years with one unambiguous director on record; years where SABR lists multiple names (handoffs/overlaps) or none are left out, so a director's record here may skip years he was involved in — see the coverage note on the leaderboard. Single drafts are noise-dominated — one star swamps a class — so read the multi-year totals, not any one year. Full method on the DVOS page.