RRosternomics

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Rob Metzler

Rays

2016–2022 · 7 drafts · 216 picks

Early-Round Selection
-15.6
#142 of 172
rds 1–10, cost-ctrl
Late-Round Value
-10.1
#121 of 172
rds 11+, total career
Total DVOS
-78.9
#164 of 172
-11.28/draft
Hitter DVOS
-7.1
#144 of 172
reliable skill (+0.54)
Career fWAR drafted
58
#99 of 172

Value by position — where the value came from (descriptive)

PosPicksfWARDVOS
IF1012 +0.4
P3236 -2.3
OF510 -7.5

Position from each player's primary MLB fielding spot; never-MLB picks excluded. This table is descriptive, not a skill ranking — per-position DVOS isn't reliable at this granularity (split-half ≈ 0 for P/OF, a small-sample mirage for C). The one reliable position cut is Hitter vs Pitcher: drafting hitters (C/IF/OF) above slot repeats (split-half +0.54, the KPI above), but drafting pitchers above slot does not (≈ 0) — so we rank Hitter DVOS and leave pitcher out.

Top picks — who drove the value

YrOvrPlayerPosfWARExpDVOS
2018210Joe RyanP 13.80.8 +13.0
2016390Nathaniel Lowe1B 10.90.3 +10.6
201831Shane McClanahanP 10.22.9 +7.4
2018150Taj BradleyP 5.70.8 +4.9
201613Josh LoweOF 4.67.9 -3.3
201677Jake FraleyOF 3.91.9 +2.0
201816Matthew LiberatoreP 3.45.8 -2.4
202270Chandler SimpsonOF 2.21.9 +0.3
202057Ian SeymourP 1.81.8 +0.0
2021191Mason MontgomeryP 1.60.8 +0.8
201779Taylor WallsSS 1.31.9 -0.6
202163Kyle Manzardo1B 0.91.8 -0.9
20174Brendan McKayP 0.810.4 -9.6
2017229Riley O'BrienP 0.50.5 -0.0
2019368Nick Sogard2B 0.40.3 +0.1

By draft class

YearPicksfWARExpectedDVOS
20164119.0 21.3-2.3
2017411.9 26.7-24.8
20184333.1 24.9+8.2
201942-0.4 21.8-22.2
202061.4 12.5-11.1
2021211.4 14.7-13.3
2022221.9 15.4-13.5
Total216 58 -78.9

DVOS = Σ (a pick's career fWAR − the expected fWAR for that overall slot), credited to the scouting director SABR lists for that draft. We only attribute years with one unambiguous director on record; years where SABR lists multiple names (handoffs/overlaps) or none are left out, so a director's record here may skip years he was involved in — see the coverage note on the leaderboard. Single drafts are noise-dominated — one star swamps a class — so read the multi-year totals, not any one year. Full method on the DVOS page.