RRosternomics

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Sean Johnson

Twins

2017–present · 8 drafts · 209 picks

Early-Round Selection
-18.3
#152 of 172
rds 1–10, cost-ctrl
Late-Round Value
+2.6
#44 of 172
rds 11+, total career
Total DVOS
-87.0
#168 of 172
-10.88/draft
Hitter DVOS
-10.2
#154 of 172
reliable skill (+0.54)
Career fWAR drafted
75
#86 of 172

Value by position — where the value came from (descriptive)

PosPicksfWARDVOS
P2532 +15.8
C210 +8.4
OF74 -1.6
IF829 -17.1

Position from each player's primary MLB fielding spot; never-MLB picks excluded. This table is descriptive, not a skill ranking — per-position DVOS isn't reliable at this granularity (split-half ≈ 0 for P/OF, a small-sample mirage for C). The one reliable position cut is Hitter vs Pitcher: drafting hitters (C/IF/OF) above slot repeats (split-half +0.54, the KPI above), but drafting pitchers above slot does not (≈ 0) — so we rank Hitter DVOS and leave pitcher out.

Top picks — who drove the value

YrOvrPlayerPosfWARExpDVOS
201859Ryan JeffersC 10.31.8 +8.5
2017346Bailey OberP 9.90.3 +9.7
201735Brent RookerDH 8.92.9 +6.0
2017466Cade SmithP 7.20.2 +6.9
201990Spencer Steer1B 5.41.1 +4.3
20171Royce Lewis3B 5.223.5 -18.4
201820Trevor LarnachDH 4.86.0 -1.1
201939Matt WallnerOF 4.22.9 +1.4
2019449Louis VarlandP 3.60.2 +3.4
202349Luke Keaschall2B 2.82.4 +0.4
2018154Cole SandsP 2.10.8 +1.2
202198Cade PovichP 1.81.1 +0.8
2017286Calvin FaucherP 1.70.5 +1.2
2021399David FestaP 1.40.3 +1.1
2019269Brent HeadrickP 1.40.5 +0.9

By draft class

YearPicksfWARExpectedDVOS
20174132.4 39.8-7.4
20183917.6 16.0+1.6
20194115.9 22.2-6.3
20204-0.0 5.9-5.9
2021211.9 15.0-13.1
2022204.7 21.0-16.2
2023212.8 22.7-19.9
2024220.0 19.7-19.7
Total209 75 -87.0

DVOS = Σ (a pick's career fWAR − the expected fWAR for that overall slot), credited to the scouting director SABR lists for that draft. We only attribute years with one unambiguous director on record; years where SABR lists multiple names (handoffs/overlaps) or none are left out, so a director's record here may skip years he was involved in — see the coverage note on the leaderboard. Single drafts are noise-dominated — one star swamps a class — so read the multi-year totals, not any one year. Full method on the DVOS page.