RRosternomics
𝕏

Angels ANA

‹ ›

GM: Bill Stoneman

Overview

CONTEND → steady
expensive & winning · year 4 in this regime · payroll 1.3× league · TAB +4.3
+4.3TAB — talent above budget11th/30
+8.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)5th/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars6th/30
-4.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag19th/30
12%dead money %2nd/30
0.580win %3rd/30
41.7roster fWAR8th/30
-16surplus $M (value vs cost)19th/30
$107Mpayroll $M6th/30

2007: made playoffs · 94–68. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFGary Matthews Jr. 135GReggie Willits 30GNathan Haynes 12G
LFGarret Anderson 85GReggie Willits 64GRobb Quinlan 16G
RFVladimir Guerrero 108GReggie Willits 31GNathan Haynes 13G
SSOrlando Cabrera 153GErick Aybar 20GBrandon Wood 3G
2BHowie Kendrick 86GErick Aybar 43GMaicer Izturis 40G
3BChone Figgins 99GMaicer Izturis 53GBrandon Wood 10G
1BCasey Kotchman 130GRobb Quinlan 34GKendrys Morales 19G
STARTERSJohn Lackey 5.0WARKelvim Escobar 4.9WARJered Weaver 2.9WARJoe Saunders 1.4WARBartolo Colon 1.0WAR
CMike Napoli 75GJeff Mathis 57GRyan Budde 10G
DHShea Hillenbrand 45GVladimir Guerrero 41GGarret Anderson 20G
BULLPEN★ Francisco Rodríguez 40svScot Shields 31hJustin Speier 24hDarren Oliver 8hChris Bootcheck 4hHector Carrasco 2hGreg Jones 0hRich Thompson 0h
CMike Napoli 75 · Jeff Mathis 57 · Ryan Budde 10
1BCasey Kotchman 130 · Robb Quinlan 34 · Kendrys Morales 19
2BHowie Kendrick 86 · Erick Aybar 43 · Maicer Izturis 40
3BChone Figgins 99 · Maicer Izturis 53 · Brandon Wood 10
SSOrlando Cabrera 153 · Erick Aybar 20 · Brandon Wood 3
LFGarret Anderson 85 · Reggie Willits 64 · Robb Quinlan 16
CFGary Matthews Jr. 135 · Reggie Willits 30 · Nathan Haynes 12
RFVladimir Guerrero 108 · Reggie Willits 31 · Nathan Haynes 13
DHShea Hillenbrand 45 · Vladimir Guerrero 41 · Garret Anderson 20
SPJohn Lackey 5.0 · Kelvim Escobar 4.9 · Jered Weaver 2.9 · Joe Saunders 1.4 · Bartolo Colon 1.0
BP★ Francisco Rodríguez 40 · Scot Shields 31 · Justin Speier 24 · Darren Oliver 8 · Chris Bootcheck 4 · Hector Carrasco 2 · Greg Jones 0 · Rich Thompson 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2007 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
John Lackey 28 arb 335.0 5.8 +5.0
Kelvim Escobar 31 FA-elig 304.9 9.0 +1.5
Orlando Cabrera 32 FA-elig 1554.8 8.5 +1.8
Chone Figgins 29 arb 1154.0 3.5 +5.1
Vladimir Guerrero 32 FA-elig 1503.2 14.5 -7.7
Jered Weaver 24 pre-arb 282.9 0.4 +5.8
Casey Kotchman 24 arb 1372.7 0.4 +5.4
Howie Kendrick 23 pre-arb 882.3 0.4 +4.6
Francisco Rodríguez 25 arb 641.9 7.0 -2.9
Maicer Izturis 26 arb 1021.9 0.4 +3.6
Mike Napoli 25 pre-arb 751.5 0.4 +2.9
Reggie Willits 26 pre-arb 1361.5 0.4 +2.8
Garret Anderson 35 FA-elig 1081.4 11.6 -8.7
Joe Saunders 26 pre-arb 181.4 0.4 +2.5
Gary Matthews Jr. 32 FA-elig 1401.3 6.4 -3.6
Bartolo Colon 34 FA-elig 191.0 16.0 -13.8
Dustin Moseley 25 pre-arb 460.9 0.4 +1.6
Ervin Santana 24 pre-arb 280.8 0.4 +1.3
Scot Shields 31 FA-elig 710.8 3.4 -1.8
Darren Oliver 36 FA-elig 610.6 1.5 -0.3
Justin Speier 33 FA-elig 510.5 3.8 -2.6
Chris Bootcheck 28 arb 510.5 0.4 +0.7
Jeff Mathis 24 – 590.3 – –
Nathan Haynes 27 – 400.2 – –
Jason Bulger 28 – 60.1 – –
Terry Evans 25 – 80.1 – –
Tommy Murphy 27 pre-arb 200.1 0.4 -0.2
Nick Gorneault 28 – 20.0 – –
Kendrys Morales 24 – 430.0 0.4 -0.4
Matthew Brown 24 – 4-0.0 – –
Chris Resop 24 – 4-0.1 – –
Juan Rivera 28 FA-elig 14-0.1 2.0 -2.3
Greg Jones 30 – 9-0.1 – –
Marcus Gwyn 29 – 3-0.2 – –
Ryan Budde 27 – 12-0.2 – –
Rich Thompson 22 – 7-0.2 – –
Brandon Wood 22 – 13-0.3 – –
Robb Quinlan 30 arb 79-0.3 0.8 -1.5
Hector Carrasco 37 FA-elig 29-0.5 3.0 -4.1
José Molina↔ NYY 32 FA-elig 40-0.6 0.8 -2.0
Erick Aybar 23 pre-arb 79-0.9 0.4 -2.4
Shea Hillenbrand↔ LAD 31 FA-elig 53-1.2 4.4 -6.9

Key additions (new vs 2006)

PlayerfWAR
Gary Matthews Jr.1.3
Darren Oliver0.6
Justin Speier0.5
Nathan Haynes0.2
Terry Evans0.1
Nick Gorneault0.0

Key subtractions (gone from 2006)

Player2006 fWAR
Adam Kennedy1.0
Kevin Gregg0.6
Tim Salmon0.6
Dallas McPherson0.4
Curtis Pride0.4
Jeff Weaver0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2007 payroll
$107.1M

What the front office was committed to as of 2007, 2007–2013. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Bartolo Colon3410.000$16.0MFREE AGENT
Vladimir Guerrero3211.000$14.5M$15.5M$15.0MFREE AGENT
Garret Anderson3513.000$11.6M$12.6MFREE AGENT
Kelvim Escobar3110.000$9.0MFREE AGENT$10.0M
Orlando Cabrera3210.000$8.5MFREE AGENT
Gary Matthews Jr.328.000$6.4M$9.4M$10.4MFREE AGENT
Shea Hillenbrand316.000$4.4MFREE AGENT
Justin Speier339.000$3.8M$4.2M$4.8MFREE AGENT
Scot Shields316.000$3.4M$4.2M$5.0M$5.3MFREE AGENT
Hector Carrasco3713.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Juan Rivera286.000$2.0M$2.0M$3.2M$4.2MFREE AGENT
Darren Oliver3614.000$1.5M$2.0M$3.7MFREE AGENT
José Molina328.000$783kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Francisco Rodríguez255.000$7.0MFREE AGENT
John Lackey285.000$5.8MFREE AGENT
Chone Figgins295.000$3.5MFREE AGENT
Robb Quinlan304.000$800kARB 3FREE AGENT
Maicer Izturis263.000$440kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Kotchman243.000$382kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Bootcheck284.000$380kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (22)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Ervin Santana242.000$425kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kendrys Morales241.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Howie Kendrick231.000$395kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Napoli251.000$395kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jered Weaver241.000$385kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Reggie Willits261.000$382kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Murphy271.000$382kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erick Aybar231.000$382kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dustin Moseley251.000$380kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Saunders262.000$380kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nathan Haynes270.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Bulger282.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Mathis242.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Greg Jones30–—
Nick Gorneault28–—
Chris Resop242.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Budde270.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matthew Brown24–—
Brandon Wood220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Terry Evans250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rich Thompson220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marcus Gwyn29–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Angels 2007; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

'; return; } const s=sm(raw,w),n=s.length,X=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[1]*100)/100),Y=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[2]*10)/10),yr=s.map(d=>d[0]); let xa=Math.min(1,...X),xb=Math.max(1,...X),ya=Math.min(0,...Y),yb=Math.max(0,...Y); const px=(xb-xa)*.12+.04,py=(yb-ya)*.12+1.5;xa-=px;xb+=px;ya-=py;yb+=py; const k=Math.max(0,n-3), ann=[]; [['WINDOW','#15b6a0',xa<1&&yb>0,xa,yb,'left','top'],['CONTEND','#2f7ed8',xb>1&&yb>0,xb,yb,'right','top'], ['FORCED-SPEND','#ec5a3c',xb>1&&ya<0,xb,ya,'right','bottom'],['REBUILD','#f0a91c',xa<1&&ya<0,xa,ya,'left','bottom']].forEach(q=>{ if(q[2]) ann.push({x:q[3],y:q[4],xref:'x',yref:'y',text:q[0],showarrow:false,xanchor:q[5],yanchor:q[6],font:{size:10,color:q[1]},opacity:.85});}); ann.push({x:X[n-1],y:Y[n-1],ax:X[n-1]-0.5*(X[n-1]-X[k]),ay:Y[n-1]-0.5*(Y[n-1]-Y[k]),xref:'x',yref:'y',axref:'x',ayref:'y',showarrow:true,arrowhead:2,arrowsize:1.3,arrowwidth:1.7,arrowcolor:dirc,text:''}); Plotly.newPlot('orbit',[{x:X,y:Y,mode:'lines+markers',line:{color:col,width:2.6,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.7}, marker:{color:col,size:s.map((d,i)=>5+7*(i/Math.max(1,n-1))),line:{color:dark?'#1b1e23':'#fff',width:0.6}}, text:yr,hovertemplate:'%{text}
payroll %{x:.2f}× lg · TAB %{y:+.1f}
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'ANA',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});