RRosternomics
𝕏

Braves ATL

‹ ›

GM: John Schuerholz

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.71× league · TAB +2.1
+2.1TAB — talent above budget11th/26
+16.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)1st/26
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars21st/26
-4.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag8th/26
36%dead money %18th/26
0.580win %3rd/26
32.2roster fWAR16th/26
+2surplus $M (value vs cost)4th/26
$16Mpayroll $M21st/26

1991: won pennant · 94–68. Ranks are vs the 26 teams that season.

Roster

CFRon Gant 148GOtis Nixon 17GDeion Sanders 5G
LFLonnie Smith 99GOtis Nixon 55GDeion Sanders 41G
RFDavid Justice 106GOtis Nixon 48GKeith Mitchell 10G
SSRafael Belliard 145GJeff Blauser 85GVinny Castilla 12G
2BMark Lemke 110GJeff Treadway 93GJeff Blauser 32G
3BTerry Pendleton 148GJeff Blauser 18GMark Lemke 15G
1BBrian R. Hunter 85GSid Bream 85GMike Bell 14G
STARTERSTom Glavine 6.1WARJohn Smoltz 3.7WARSteve Avery 3.1WARCharlie Leibrandt 3.1WARPete Smith 0.3WAR
CGreg Olson 127GDamon Berryhill 49GMike Heath 45G
BULLPEN★ Juan Berenguer 17svMike Stanton 0hAlejandro Pena 0hJim Clancy 0hKent Mercker 0hMarvin Freeman 0hRandy St. Claire 0hJeff Parrett 0h
CGreg Olson 127 · Damon Berryhill 49 · Mike Heath 45
1BBrian R. Hunter 85 · Sid Bream 85 · Mike Bell 14
2BMark Lemke 110 · Jeff Treadway 93 · Jeff Blauser 32
3BTerry Pendleton 148 · Jeff Blauser 18 · Mark Lemke 15
SSRafael Belliard 145 · Jeff Blauser 85 · Vinny Castilla 12
LFLonnie Smith 99 · Otis Nixon 55 · Deion Sanders 41
CFRon Gant 148 · Otis Nixon 17 · Deion Sanders 5
RFDavid Justice 106 · Otis Nixon 48 · Keith Mitchell 10
SPTom Glavine 6.1 · John Smoltz 3.7 · Steve Avery 3.1 · Charlie Leibrandt 3.1 · Pete Smith 0.3
BP★ Juan Berenguer 17 · Mike Stanton 0 · Alejandro Pena 0 · Jim Clancy 0 · Kent Mercker 0 · Marvin Freeman 0 · Randy St. Claire 0 · Jeff Parrett 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1991 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Terry Pendleton 30 FA-elig 1536.3 1.8 +2.0
Tom Glavine 25 arb 366.1 0.7 +2.9
John Smoltz 24 arb 383.7 0.4 +1.8
Steve Avery 21 pre-arb 373.1 0.1 +1.8
Charlie Leibrandt 34 FA-elig 363.1 1.8 +0.0
Ron Gant 26 arb 1541.9 1.2 -0.1
Otis Nixon 32 – 1241.9 – –
David Justice 25 pre-arb 1091.8 0.3 +0.8
Jeff Treadway 28 arb 1061.1 0.8 -0.1
Mike Stanton 24 pre-arb 741.0 0.1 +0.5
Lonnie Smith 35 FA-elig 1221.0 2.0 -1.4
Greg Olson 30 – 1330.8 – –
Kent Mercker 23 pre-arb 500.7 0.1 +0.3
Juan Berenguer 36 FA-elig 490.6 0.9 -0.5
Marvin Freeman 28 arb 340.5 0.2 +0.1
Jeff Blauser 25 arb 1290.5 0.3 +0.0
Rafael Belliard 29 – 1490.5 – –
Sid Bream 30 FA-elig 910.5 1.6 -1.3
Alejandro Pena↔ NYM 32 FA-elig 150.5 0.3 +0.0
Pete Smith 25 arb 140.3 0.4 -0.2
Randy St. Claire 30 – 190.2 – –
Keith Mitchell 21 – 480.2 – –
Danny Heep 33 – 140.1 – –
Jerry Willard 31 – 170.1 – –
Mike Bielecki↔ CHC 31 FA-elig 20.0 0.0 -0.0
Brian R. Hunter 23 – 970.0 – –
Francisco Cabrera 24 pre-arb 440.0 0.1 -0.1
Damon Berryhill↔ CHC 27 arb 1-0.0 0.0 -0.0
Rico Rossy 27 – 5-0.0 – –
Jeff Parrett 29 arb 18-0.1 0.9 -0.9
Rick Mahler↔ WSN 37 – 13-0.1 – –
Vinny Castilla 23 – 12-0.1 – –
Mark Wohlers 21 – 17-0.1 – –
Jim Clancy↔ HOU 35 – 24-0.2 – –
Doug Sisk 33 – 14-0.2 – –
Dan Petry↔ BOS 32 FA-elig 10-0.2 0.2 -0.3
Armando Reynoso 25 – 6-0.2 – –
Tony Castillo↔ NYM 28 arb 7-0.3 0.1 -0.2
Mark Lemke 25 arb 136-0.3 0.1 -0.3
Mike Bell 23 – 17-0.4 – –
Tommy Gregg 27 arb 72-0.4 0.3 -0.5
Mike Heath 36 FA-elig 49-0.8 0.9 -1.4
Deion Sanders 23 pre-arb 54-0.8 0.7 -1.2

Key additions (new vs 1990)

PlayerfWAR
Terry Pendleton6.3
Otis Nixon1.9
Juan Berenguer0.6
Rafael Belliard0.5
Sid Bream0.5
Alejandro Pena0.5

Key subtractions (gone from 1990)

Player1990 fWAR
Dale Murphy0.9
Derek Lilliquist0.6
Mark Grant0.6
Paul Marak0.2
Marty Clary0.2
Jim Vatcher0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

1991 payroll
$16.1M

What the front office was committed to as of 1991, 1991–1997. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (17)

PlayerAgeSvc1991199219931994199519961997
Lonnie Smith3513.000$2.0M$1.8MFREE AGENT
Charlie Leibrandt3412.000$1.8M$3.2MFREE AGENT
Terry Pendleton307.000$1.8M$3.0M$2.2M$3.2MFREE AGENT$1.2M
Sid Bream308.000$1.6M$2.4M$1.6MFREE AGENT
Mike Heath3613.000$950kFREE AGENT
Juan Berenguer3613.000$900k$715kFREE AGENT
Alejandro Pena3210.000$254k$2.6MFREE AGENT$174k
Dan Petry3212.000$162kFREE AGENT
Mike Bielecki317.000$40k$1.3MFREE AGENT$150k$125k$708k
Rafael Belliard299.000—$500k$800k$800k$550k$575k$250k
Jim Clancy3514.000—FREE AGENT
Danny Heep3312.000—FREE AGENT
Rick Mahler3712.000—FREE AGENT
Otis Nixon328.000—$1.8M$2.8MFREE AGENT
Randy St. Claire307.000—FREE AGENT
Doug Sisk339.000—FREE AGENT
Jerry Willard317.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc1991199219931994199519961997
Ron Gant264.000$1.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Parrett295.000$855kFREE AGENT
Jeff Treadway284.000$770kARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Glavine254.000$698kARB 3FREE AGENT
Pete Smith254.000$365kARB 3FREE AGENT
John Smoltz243.000$355kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Blauser254.000$280kARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Gregg274.000$265kARB 3FREE AGENT
Marvin Freeman285.000$190kFREE AGENT
Mark Lemke253.000$138kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Castillo283.000$68kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Damon Berryhill274.000$4kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (14)

PlayerAgeSvc1991199219931994199519961997
Deion Sanders232.000$660kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Justice252.000$296kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Stanton242.000$120kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kent Mercker232.000$117kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Avery211.000$110kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Francisco Cabrera242.000$110kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Bell231.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vinny Castilla230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian R. Hunter230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Keith Mitchell210.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Greg Olson302.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Armando Reynoso250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rico Rossy270.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Wohlers210.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Braves 1991; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

'; return; } const s=sm(raw,w),n=s.length,X=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[1]*100)/100),Y=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[2]*10)/10),yr=s.map(d=>d[0]); let xa=Math.min(1,...X),xb=Math.max(1,...X),ya=Math.min(0,...Y),yb=Math.max(0,...Y); const px=(xb-xa)*.12+.04,py=(yb-ya)*.12+1.5;xa-=px;xb+=px;ya-=py;yb+=py; const k=Math.max(0,n-3), ann=[]; [['WINDOW','#15b6a0',xa<1&&yb>0,xa,yb,'left','top'],['CONTEND','#2f7ed8',xb>1&&yb>0,xb,yb,'right','top'], ['FORCED-SPEND','#ec5a3c',xb>1&&ya<0,xb,ya,'right','bottom'],['REBUILD','#f0a91c',xa<1&&ya<0,xa,ya,'left','bottom']].forEach(q=>{ if(q[2]) ann.push({x:q[3],y:q[4],xref:'x',yref:'y',text:q[0],showarrow:false,xanchor:q[5],yanchor:q[6],font:{size:10,color:q[1]},opacity:.85});}); ann.push({x:X[n-1],y:Y[n-1],ax:X[n-1]-0.5*(X[n-1]-X[k]),ay:Y[n-1]-0.5*(Y[n-1]-Y[k]),xref:'x',yref:'y',axref:'x',ayref:'y',showarrow:true,arrowhead:2,arrowsize:1.3,arrowwidth:1.7,arrowcolor:dirc,text:''}); Plotly.newPlot('orbit',[{x:X,y:Y,mode:'lines+markers',line:{color:col,width:2.6,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.7}, marker:{color:col,size:s.map((d,i)=>5+7*(i/Math.max(1,n-1))),line:{color:dark?'#1b1e23':'#fff',width:0.6}}, text:yr,hovertemplate:'%{text}
payroll %{x:.2f}× lg · TAB %{y:+.1f}
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'ATL',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});