RRosternomics
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Braves ATL

‹ ›

GM: Alex Anthopoulos

Overview

CONTEND ↘ cooling
expensive & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.14× league · TAB +3.7
+3.7TAB — talent above budget11th/30
+5.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)12th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars13th/30
-5.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag18th/30
46%dead money %23rd/30
0.547win %12th/30
39.2roster fWAR10th/30
-16surplus $M (value vs cost)17th/30
$144Mpayroll $M12th/30

2021: World Series champions · 88–73. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFGuillermo Heredia 108GEnder Inciarte 37GAdam Duvall 30G
LFEddie Rosario 100GAdam Duvall 51GMarcell Ozuna 48G
RFJorge Soler 96GRonald Acuña Jr. 80GAdam Duvall 77G
SSDansby Swanson 159GEhire Adrianza 5GOrlando Arcia 5G
2BOzzie Albies 156GEhire Adrianza 7GOrlando Arcia 1G
3BAustin Riley 156GEhire Adrianza 16GJohan Camargo 1G
1BFreddie Freeman 159GAustin Riley 10GPablo Sandoval 2G
STARTERSMax Fried 4.5WARCharlie Morton 4.4WARHuascar Ynoa 1.7WARIan Anderson 1.6WARKyle Muller 0.6WAR
CStephen Vogt 63GTravis d'Arnaud 57GWilliam Contreras 49G
DHJorge Soler 47GPablo Sandoval 6GEhire Adrianza 1G
BULLPEN★ Will Smith 37svLuke Jackson 31hTyler Matzek 24hA.J. Minter 23hChris Martin 13hRichard Rodríguez 8hEdgar Santana 3hJosh Tomlin 1h
CStephen Vogt 63 · Travis d'Arnaud 57 · William Contreras 49
1BFreddie Freeman 159 · Austin Riley 10 · Pablo Sandoval 2
2BOzzie Albies 156 · Ehire Adrianza 7 · Orlando Arcia 1
3BAustin Riley 156 · Ehire Adrianza 16 · Johan Camargo 1
SSDansby Swanson 159 · Ehire Adrianza 5 · Orlando Arcia 5
LFEddie Rosario 100 · Adam Duvall 51 · Marcell Ozuna 48
CFGuillermo Heredia 108 · Ender Inciarte 37 · Adam Duvall 30
RFJorge Soler 96 · Ronald Acuña Jr. 80 · Adam Duvall 77
DHJorge Soler 47 · Pablo Sandoval 6 · Ehire Adrianza 1
SPMax Fried 4.5 · Charlie Morton 4.4 · Huascar Ynoa 1.7 · Ian Anderson 1.6 · Kyle Muller 0.6
BP★ Will Smith 37 · Luke Jackson 31 · Tyler Matzek 24 · A.J. Minter 23 · Chris Martin 13 · Richard Rodríguez 8 · Edgar Santana 3 · Josh Tomlin 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2021 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Austin Riley 24 pre-arb 1605.1 0.6 +15.9
Freddie Freeman 31 FA-elig 1594.7 22.0 -6.6
Max Fried 27 arb 324.5 3.5 +11.1
Charlie Morton 37 FA-elig 344.4 15.0 -0.7
Ronald Acuña Jr. 23 arb 824.4 5.0 +9.2
Ozzie Albies 24 arb 1563.7 3.0 +8.9
Dansby Swanson 27 arb 1603.3 6.0 +4.7
Huascar Ynoa 23 pre-arb 181.7 0.6 +5.0
Ian Anderson 23 pre-arb 241.6 0.6 +4.7
A.J. Minter 27 arb 611.3 1.3 +2.8
Jorge Soler↔ KCR 29 FA-elig 551.2 3.0 +0.9
Adam Duvall↔ MIA 32 FA-elig 551.2 1.1 +2.7
Tyler Matzek 30 pre-arb 691.1 0.6 +2.8
Travis d'Arnaud 32 FA-elig 600.9 8.0 -5.0
Jesse Chavez 37 FA-elig 300.9 0.3 +2.7
Eddie Rosario↔ CLE 29 FA-elig 330.7 2.4 -0.1
Guillermo Heredia 30 arb 1200.7 1.0 +1.1
Kyle Muller 23 – 90.6 0.1 +2.0
Luke Jackson 29 FA-elig 710.6 1.9 +0.1
Ehire Adrianza 31 FA-elig 1090.6 1.5 +0.3
Chris Martin 35 FA-elig 460.5 7.0 -5.5
Will Smith 31 FA-elig 710.4 13.0 -11.7
Joc Pederson↔ CHC 29 FA-elig 640.4 2.1 -0.9
Sean Newcomb 28 pre-arb 320.3 0.4 +0.4
Tucker Davidson 25 pre-arb 40.1 0.4 +0.0
Jonathan Lucroy↔ WSN 35 – 20.1 0.0 +0.2
Drew Smyly 32 FA-elig 320.1 11.0 -10.8
Jacob Webb 27 pre-arb 340.1 0.3 -0.0
Edgar Santana 29 pre-arb 410.0 0.4 -0.4
Grant Dayton 33 arb 130.0 0.9 -0.9
Josh Tomlin 36 FA-elig 36-0.0 1.0 -1.0
Ty Tice↔ TOR 24 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Dylan Lee 26 – 2-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Jesse Biddle 29 arb 8-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Sean Kazmar Jr. 36 – 3-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Carl Edwards Jr.↔ TOR 29 FA-elig 1-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Ender Inciarte 30 FA-elig 52-0.1 8.7 -8.9
Bryse Wilson↔ PIT 23 – 8-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Pablo Sandoval 34 FA-elig 69-0.1 1.0 -1.3
William Contreras 23 pre-arb 52-0.1 0.3 -0.7
Jay Flaa↔ BAL 29 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Spencer Strider 22 – 2-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Abraham Almonte 32 FA-elig 64-0.1 0.6 -1.0
Jeff Mathis 38 FA-elig 3-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Kyle Wright 25 pre-arb 2-0.2 0.0 -0.6
Marcell Ozuna 30 FA-elig 48-0.2 12.0 -12.8
Orlando Arcia↔ MIL 26 arb 32-0.3 1.8 -2.6
Alex Jackson↔ MIA 25 – 10-0.3 0.1 -1.0
Shane Greene↔ LAD 32 – 19-0.3 0.8 -1.7
Touki Toussaint 25 pre-arb 11-0.3 0.6 -1.5
Johan Camargo 27 arb 15-0.3 1.4 -2.5
Stephen Vogt↔ ARI 36 FA-elig 26-0.4 1.2 -2.4
Richard Rodríguez↔ PIT 31 arb 27-0.5 0.7 -2.5
Nate Jones↔ LAD 35 FA-elig 12-0.6 0.1 -1.9
Cristian Pache 22 pre-arb 22-0.6 0.2 -2.1
Kevan Smith↔ TBR 33 – 30-0.6 0.2 -2.3

Key additions (new vs 2020)

PlayerfWAR
Charlie Morton4.4
Jorge Soler1.2
Jesse Chavez0.9
Eddie Rosario0.7
Guillermo Heredia0.7
Kyle Muller0.6

Key subtractions (gone from 2020)

Player2020 fWAR
Tyler Flowers0.3
Darren O'Day0.3
Mark Melancon0.3
Cole Hamels0.1
Chad Sobotka0.0
Nick Markakis0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2021 payroll
$143.9M
2022 guaranteed
$5.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2021, 2021–2027. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2021; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (21)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Freddie Freeman3110.033$22.0MFREE AGENT
Charlie Morton3712.010$15.0MFREE AGENT
Will Smith319.000$13.0MFREE AGENT
Marcell Ozuna307.124$12.0MFREE AGENT
Drew Smyly328.143$11.0MFREE AGENT
Ender Inciarte307.000$8.7MFREE AGENT
Travis d'Arnaud327.044$8.0MFREE AGENT
Ozzie Albies243.062$3.0M$5.0M$7.0M$7.0M$7.0M$7.0MCLUB$7.0MCLUB
Joc Pederson297.000$2.1MFREE AGENT
Ehire Adrianza316.131$1.5MFREE AGENT
Stephen Vogt367.064$1.2MFREE AGENT
Adam Duvall327.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Pablo Sandoval3413.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Josh Tomlin3610.033$1.0MFREE AGENT
Shane Greene326.075$804kFREE AGENT
Abraham Almonte328.000$570kFREE AGENT
Jesse Chavez3710.108$310kFREE AGENT
Nate Jones359.000$126kFREE AGENT
Jeff Mathis3814.012$100kFREE AGENT
Carl Edwards Jr.296.000$14kFREE AGENT
Jonathan Lucroy3511.000$12kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Chris Martin353.133$7.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dansby Swanson274.047$6.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Ronald Acuña Jr.233.000$5.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Soler295.143$3.0MFREE AGENT
Eddie Rosario295.120$2.4MFREE AGENT
Luke Jackson294.019$1.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Orlando Arcia264.047$1.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Johan Camargo273.098$1.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Guillermo Heredia303.112$1.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Grant Dayton334.007$900kARB 3FREE AGENT
Richard Rodríguez313.016$717kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevan Smith334.031$237kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesse Biddle293.088$92kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (22)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Max Fried272.148$3.5MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
A.J. Minter272.161$1.3MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Matzek302.019$600kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Riley241.138$590kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Huascar Ynoa230.141$580kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ian Anderson230.094$576kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Touki Toussaint251.065$568kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edgar Santana292.048$448kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Newcomb282.166$410kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tucker Davidson250.003$386kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
William Contreras230.017$285kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacob Webb271.155$264kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cristian Pache220.022$178kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Muller230.000$104kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryse Wilson230.165$100kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Jackson250.076$67kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Kazmar Jr.36–$34k
Ty Tice24–$17k
Dylan Lee260.000$15kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jay Flaa29–$12k
Kyle Wright251.040$9kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Spencer Strider220.000$6kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Braves 2021; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'ATL',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});