RRosternomics
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Braves ATL

‹ ›

GM: Alex Anthopoulos

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 4 in this regime · payroll 1.28× league · TAB +20.4
+20.4TAB — talent above budget2nd/30
+18.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)3rd/30
10.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars1st/30
-3.3dead WAR — sub-replacement drag8th/30
17%dead money %3rd/30
0.642win %1st/30
57.6roster fWAR1st/30
+32surplus $M (value vs cost)6th/30
$197Mpayroll $M9th/30

2023: made playoffs · 104–58. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFMichael Harris II 138GSam Hilliard 23GEli White 5G
LFEddie Rosario 130GKevin Pillar 64GSam Hilliard 7G
RFRonald Acuña Jr. 156GKevin Pillar 13GSam Hilliard 2G
SSOrlando Arcia 139GVaughn Grissom 19GNicky Lopez 11G
2BOzzie Albies 148GNicky Lopez 49GVaughn Grissom 4G
3BAustin Riley 159GNicky Lopez 29GLuke Williams 2G
1BMatt Olson 162GNicky Lopez 4GLuke Williams 1G
STARTERSSpencer Strider 5.5WARCharlie Morton 2.7WARMax Fried 1.9WARBryce Elder 1.8WARAllan Winans 0.5WAR
CSean Murphy 102GTravis d'Arnaud 63GChadwick Tromp 6G
DHMarcell Ozuna 141GEddie Rosario 10GTravis d'Arnaud 8G
BULLPEN★ Raisel Iglesias 33svA.J. Minter 21hJoe Jiménez 13hPierce Johnson 12hKirby Yates 9hCollin McHugh 7hBrad Hand 5hMichael Tonkin 2h
CSean Murphy 102 · Travis d'Arnaud 63 · Chadwick Tromp 6
1BMatt Olson 162 · Nicky Lopez 4 · Luke Williams 1
2BOzzie Albies 148 · Nicky Lopez 49 · Vaughn Grissom 4
3BAustin Riley 159 · Nicky Lopez 29 · Luke Williams 2
SSOrlando Arcia 139 · Vaughn Grissom 19 · Nicky Lopez 11
LFEddie Rosario 130 · Kevin Pillar 64 · Sam Hilliard 7
CFMichael Harris II 138 · Sam Hilliard 23 · Eli White 5
RFRonald Acuña Jr. 156 · Kevin Pillar 13 · Sam Hilliard 2
DHMarcell Ozuna 141 · Eddie Rosario 10 · Travis d'Arnaud 8
SPSpencer Strider 5.5 · Charlie Morton 2.7 · Max Fried 1.9 · Bryce Elder 1.8 · Allan Winans 0.5
BP★ Raisel Iglesias 33 · A.J. Minter 21 · Joe Jiménez 13 · Pierce Johnson 12 · Kirby Yates 9 · Collin McHugh 7 · Brad Hand 5 · Michael Tonkin 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2023 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Ronald Acuña Jr. 25 arb 1599.2 17.0 +19.3
Matt Olson 29 FA-elig 1626.6 21.0 +5.2
Spencer Strider 24 pre-arb 325.5 1.0 +20.8
Austin Riley 26 arb 1595.1 15.0 +5.2
Sean Murphy 28 arb 1085.0 4.0 +15.6
Ozzie Albies 26 FA-elig 1484.1 7.0 +9.4
Michael Harris II 22 pre-arb 1383.9 5.0 +10.5
Marcell Ozuna 32 FA-elig 1443.2 18.0 -5.3
Charlie Morton 39 FA-elig 302.7 20.0 -9.4
Orlando Arcia 28 FA-elig 1392.4 2.3 +7.3
Max Fried 29 FA-elig 141.9 13.5 -6.1
Bryce Elder 24 pre-arb 311.8 0.7 +6.4
A.J. Minter 29 FA-elig 701.4 4.3 +1.4
Eddie Rosario 31 FA-elig 1421.3 9.0 -3.8
Raisel Iglesias 33 FA-elig 581.0 16.0 -11.9
Nick Anderson 32 arb 350.9 0.9 +2.6
Jesse Chavez 39 FA-elig 360.7 1.2 +1.7
Travis d'Arnaud 34 FA-elig 740.7 8.0 -5.2
Joe Jiménez 28 FA-elig 590.5 2.8 -0.9
Allan Winans 27 – 60.5 0.0 +1.8
Pierce Johnson↔ COL 32 FA-elig 240.4 1.8 -0.0
Forrest Wall 27 – 150.4 0.2 +1.2
Nicky Lopez↔ KCR 28 arb 260.4 1.0 +0.4
Collin McHugh 36 FA-elig 410.3 5.0 -3.7
Kevin Pillar 34 FA-elig 810.3 3.0 -1.9
Kolby Allard 25 pre-arb 40.2 0.8 -0.1
Danny Young 29 – 80.1 0.1 +0.4
Sam Hilliard 29 arb 400.1 0.8 -0.4
Yonny Chirinos↔ TBR 29 arb 50.1 0.3 -0.0
Brad Hand↔ COL 33 FA-elig 200.1 1.0 -0.7
Michael Tonkin 33 FA-elig 450.1 0.8 -0.5
Jackson Stephens 29 FA-elig 50.1 0.7 -0.5
Darius Vines 25 – 50.1 0.1 +0.1
Jared Shuster 24 – 110.1 0.3 -0.1
Charlie Culberson 34 FA-elig 10.0 0.1 +0.1
Dylan Lee 28 pre-arb 240.0 0.7 -0.6
Nick Solak↔ DET 28 – 10.0 0.0 -0.0
Kyle Wright 27 arb 9-0.0 0.8 -0.9
Daysbel Hernández 26 – 4-0.0 0.3 -0.5
Lucas Luetge 36 FA-elig 12-0.1 1.6 -1.8
Taylor Hearn↔ KCR 28 arb 1-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Eli White 29 – 6-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Ben Heller 31 arb 19-0.1 0.2 -0.7
Chadwick Tromp 28 pre-arb 6-0.1 0.2 -0.7
Kirby Yates 36 FA-elig 61-0.1 6.0 -6.6
Braden Shewmake 25 – 2-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Dereck Rodríguez↔ MIN 31 pre-arb 3-0.2 0.0 -0.8
Ehire Adrianza 33 FA-elig 5-0.2 1.0 -1.9
Luke Williams↔ LAD 26 pre-arb 7-0.3 0.1 -1.3
AJ Smith-Shawver 20 – 6-0.3 0.2 -1.4
Michael Soroka 25 arb 7-0.4 2.8 -4.4
Vaughn Grissom 22 pre-arb 23-0.5 0.1 -2.0
Dylan Dodd 25 – 7-0.5 0.1 -2.2

Key additions (new vs 2022)

PlayerfWAR
Sean Murphy5.0
Nick Anderson0.9
Joe Jiménez0.5
Allan Winans0.5
Pierce Johnson0.4
Forrest Wall0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2022)

Player2022 fWAR
Dansby Swanson6.6
William Contreras2.0
Kenley Jansen1.1
Ian Anderson0.9
Adam Duvall0.8
Robbie Grossman0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2023 payroll
$197.0M
2024 guaranteed
$71.5M

What the front office was committed to as of 2023, 2023–2029. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2023; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (17)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Matt Olson295.103$21.0M$22.0M$22.0M$22.0M$22.0M$22.0M$22.0M
Charlie Morton3914.010$20.0MFREE AGENT
Marcell Ozuna329.124$18.0MFREE AGENT
Raisel Iglesias337.154$16.0MFREE AGENT
Austin Riley263.138$15.0M$21.0M$22.0M$22.0M$22.0M$22.0M$22.0M
Eddie Rosario317.120$9.0MFREE AGENT
Travis d'Arnaud349.044$8.0MFREE AGENT
Ozzie Albies265.062$7.0M$7.0M$7.0M$7.0MCLUB$7.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Kirby Yates368.021$6.0MFREE AGENT
Collin McHugh368.085$5.0MFREE AGENT
Sean Murphy283.029$4.0M$9.0M$15.0M$15.0M$15.0M$15.0MFREE AGENT
Kevin Pillar348.072$3.0MFREE AGENT
Jesse Chavez3912.108$1.2MFREE AGENT
Brad Hand339.092$1.0MFREE AGENT
Spencer Strider241.003$1.0M$12.5M$4.0M$20.0M$22.0M$22.0M$22.0MCLUB
Ehire Adrianza3310.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Charlie Culberson347.051$124kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Ronald Acuña Jr.255.000$17.0MFREE AGENT
Max Fried294.148$13.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
A.J. Minter294.154$4.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Soroka254.122$2.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Jiménez285.061$2.8MFREE AGENT
Orlando Arcia285.114$2.3MFREE AGENT
Pierce Johnson323.137$1.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lucas Luetge364.015$1.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Nicky Lopez283.139$1.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Anderson323.153$875kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yonny Chirinos294.137$319kARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Heller313.021$213kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Hearn283.125$112kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (23)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Michael Harris II221.000$5.0MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Tonkin332.074$750kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Wright272.062$750kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kolby Allard252.162$750kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Hilliard292.094$750kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jackson Stephens292.000$740kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dylan Lee280.150$730kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryce Elder240.040$693kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jared Shuster240.000$298kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daysbel Hernández260.000$275kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Forrest Wall270.000$225kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
AJ Smith-Shawver200.000$194kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chadwick Tromp281.104$159kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Williams261.095$140kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vaughn Grissom220.057$139kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dylan Dodd250.000$135kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Young290.000$108kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eli White292.065$85kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darius Vines250.000$62kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Braden Shewmake250.000$50kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Allan Winans270.000$43kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dereck Rodríguez311.110$41kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Solak282.126$6kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Braves 2023; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'ATL',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});