RRosternomics

Orioles BAL

GM: Hank Peters

Overview

FORCED-SPEND → steady
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.28× league · TAB -0.9
-0.9TAB — talent above budget14th/26
-1.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)16th/26
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars16th/26
-4.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag14th/26
32%dead money %18th/26
0.516win %12th/26
36.2roster fWAR10th/26
-3surplus $M (value vs cost)20th/26
$12Mpayroll $M4th/26

Roster

CFFred Lynn 123GJohn Shelby 43GGary Roenicke 9G
LFMike Young 83GGary Roenicke 76GJim Dwyer 46G
RFLee Lacy 115GJim Dwyer 33GMike Young 20G
SSCal Ripken Jr. 161G
2BAlan Wiggins 85GRich Dauer 73GLenn Sakata 50G
3BFloyd Rayford 78GWayne Gross 67GFritzie Connally 46G
1BEddie Murray 154GWayne Gross 9GFritzie Connally 2G
STARTERSMike Boddicker 3.7WARStorm Davis 3.0WARKen Dixon 1.2WARScott McGregor 0.6WARMike Flanagan 0.3WAR
CRick Dempsey 131GFloyd Rayford 29GAl Pardo 29G
DHLarry Sheets 86GMike Young 32GDan Ford 16G
BULLPEN Don Aase 14svSammy Stewart 0hTippy Martinez 0hNate Snell 0hBrad Havens 0hEric Bell 0hJohn Habyan 0hPhil Huffman 0h
CRick Dempsey 131 · Floyd Rayford 29 · Al Pardo 29
1BEddie Murray 154 · Wayne Gross 9 · Fritzie Connally 2
2BAlan Wiggins 85 · Rich Dauer 73 · Lenn Sakata 50
3BFloyd Rayford 78 · Wayne Gross 67 · Fritzie Connally 46
SSCal Ripken Jr. 161
LFMike Young 83 · Gary Roenicke 76 · Jim Dwyer 46
CFFred Lynn 123 · John Shelby 43 · Gary Roenicke 9
RFLee Lacy 115 · Jim Dwyer 33 · Mike Young 20
DHLarry Sheets 86 · Mike Young 32 · Dan Ford 16
SPMike Boddicker 3.7 · Storm Davis 3.0 · Ken Dixon 1.2 · Scott McGregor 0.6 · Mike Flanagan 0.3
BP Don Aase 14 · Sammy Stewart 0 · Tippy Martinez 0 · Nate Snell 0 · Brad Havens 0 · Eric Bell 0 · John Habyan 0 · Phil Huffman 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1985 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Eddie Murray 29 FA-elig 1565.5 1.5 -0.0
Cal Ripken Jr. 24 arb 1615.4 0.8 +0.6
Mike Boddicker 27 arb 343.7 0.6 +0.3
Mike Young 25 arb 1393.3 0.1 +0.7
Floyd Rayford 27 arb 1053.1 0.1 +0.7
Storm Davis 23 arb 313.0 0.4 +0.3
Rick Dempsey 35 FA-elig 1322.7 0.5 +0.2
Fred Lynn 33 FA-elig 1241.8 1.1 -0.6
Wayne Gross 33 FA-elig 1031.7 0.5 -0.1
Lee Lacy 37 FA-elig 1211.6 0.7 -0.3
John Shelby 27 arb 691.5 0.1 +0.3
Don Aase 30 FA-elig 541.5 0.5 -0.1
Ken Dixon 24 371.2
Jim Dwyer 35 FA-elig 1011.1 0.4 -0.1
Nate Snell 32 431.0
Gary Roenicke 30 FA-elig 1140.9 0.6 -0.3
Scott McGregor 31 FA-elig 350.6 0.5 -0.4
Fritzie Connally 27 500.4
Larry Sheets 25 pre-arb 1130.4 0.1 +0.0
Mike Flanagan 33 FA-elig 150.3 0.6 -0.6
John Habyan 21 20.1
Dennis Martinez 31 FA-elig 330.0 0.6 -0.6
Bill Swaggerty 28 10.0
Rich Dauer 32 FA-elig 85-0.0 0.5 -0.5
Eric Bell 21 4-0.0
Tippy Martinez 35 FA-elig 49-0.1 0.4 -0.5
Phil Huffman 27 2-0.1
Alan Wiggins↔ SDP 27 arb 76-0.1 0.5 -0.5
Lenn Sakata 31 55-0.1
Tom O'Malley 24 8-0.1
Brad Havens 25 8-0.2
Sammy Stewart 30 FA-elig 56-0.3 0.6 -0.7
Kelly Paris 27 5-0.3
Joe Nolan 34 FA-elig 31-0.5 0.3 -0.5
John Lowenstein 38 12-0.5
Leo Hernandez 25 12-0.5
Dan Ford 33 FA-elig 28-0.7 0.5 -0.6
Al Pardo 22 34-1.1

Key additions (new vs 1984)

PlayerfWAR
Eddie Murray5.5
Cal Ripken Jr.5.4
Mike Boddicker3.7
Mike Young3.3
Floyd Rayford3.1
Storm Davis3.0

Key subtractions (gone from 1984)

Player1984 fWAR

Current & Historical Payroll

1985 payroll
$12.5M

What the front office was committed to as of 1985, 1985–1991. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (17)

PlayerAgeSvc1985198619871988198919901991
Eddie Murray298.000$1.5M$926k$2.0M$2.1MFREE AGENT
Fred Lynn3311.000$1.1M$1.2M$1.3M$1.2MFREE AGENT
Lee Lacy3713.000$725k$725k$525kFREE AGENT
Mike Flanagan3310.000$642k$640k$435kFREE AGENT$250k
Sammy Stewart307.000$581kFREE AGENT
Dennis Martinez319.000$560k$463kFREE AGENT
Gary Roenicke309.000$558kFREE AGENT
Scott McGregor319.000$547k$911k$940k$1.1MFREE AGENT
Don Aase308.000$525k$600k$625k$675kFREE AGENT
Rick Dempsey3516.000$512k$442kFREE AGENT
Wayne Gross339.000$483kFREE AGENT
Rich Dauer329.000$480kFREE AGENT
Dan Ford3310.000$450kFREE AGENT
Tippy Martinez3511.000$440k$487kFREE AGENT
Jim Dwyer3512.000$375k$400k$308k$191kFREE AGENT
Joe Nolan3413.000$342kFREE AGENT
Lenn Sakata318.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc1985198619871988198919901991
Cal Ripken Jr.244.000$800kARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Boddicker275.000$625kFREE AGENT
Alan Wiggins274.000$453kARB 3FREE AGENT
Storm Davis233.000$438kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Shelby274.000$130kARB 3FREE AGENT
Floyd Rayford275.000$128kFREE AGENT
Mike Young253.000$121kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Havens254.000ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom O'Malley243.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kelly Paris273.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (11)

PlayerAgeSvc1985198619871988198919901991
Larry Sheets251.000$60kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Bell210.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Fritzie Connally27
Ken Dixon241.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Habyan210.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Leo Hernandez25
Phil Huffman27
John Lowenstein38
Al Pardo22
Nate Snell32
Bill Swaggerty28

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Orioles 1985; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3