RRosternomics
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Orioles BAL

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GM: Pat Gillick

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.57× league · TAB -1.1
-1.1TAB — talent above budget16th/28
+0.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)14th/28
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars6th/28
-6.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag22nd/28
15%dead money %7th/28
0.543win %7th/28
38.5roster fWAR8th/28
-19surplus $M (value vs cost)28th/28
$51Mpayroll $M1st/28

1996: made playoffs · 88–74. Ranks are vs the 28 teams that season.

Roster

CFBrady Anderson 143GMike Devereaux 29GGene Kingsale 2G
LFPete Incaviglia 77GJeffrey Hammonds 64GMike Devereaux 35G
RFBobby Bonilla 108GMike Devereaux 62GTony Tarasco 22G
SSCal Ripken Jr. 158GManny Alexander 21G
2BRoberto Alomar 141GBilly Ripken 30GJeff Huson 12G
3BTodd Zeile 135GB.J. Surhoff 106GBilly Ripken 25G
1BRafael Palmeiro 159GBobby Bonilla 9GB.J. Surhoff 2G
STARTERSMike Mussina 5.3WARScott Erickson 3.6WARDavid Wells 3.4WARRocky Coppinger 0.7WARRick Krivda 0.3WAR
CChris Hoiles 126GMark Parent 51GCesar Devarez 10G
DHEddie Murray 146GBobby Bonilla 44GLuis Polonia 15G
BULLPEN★ Randy Myers 31svTerry Mathews 0hJesse Orosco 0hAlan Mills 0hRoger McDowell 0hMike Milchin 0hArthur Rhodes 0hArchie Corbin 0h
CChris Hoiles 126 · Mark Parent 51 · Cesar Devarez 10
1BRafael Palmeiro 159 · Bobby Bonilla 9 · B.J. Surhoff 2
2BRoberto Alomar 141 · Billy Ripken 30 · Jeff Huson 12
3BTodd Zeile 135 · B.J. Surhoff 106 · Billy Ripken 25
SSCal Ripken Jr. 158 · Manny Alexander 21
LFPete Incaviglia 77 · Jeffrey Hammonds 64 · Mike Devereaux 35
CFBrady Anderson 143 · Mike Devereaux 29 · Gene Kingsale 2
RFBobby Bonilla 108 · Mike Devereaux 62 · Tony Tarasco 22
DHEddie Murray 146 · Bobby Bonilla 44 · Luis Polonia 15
SPMike Mussina 5.3 · Scott Erickson 3.6 · David Wells 3.4 · Rocky Coppinger 0.7 · Rick Krivda 0.3
BP★ Randy Myers 31 · Terry Mathews 0 · Jesse Orosco 0 · Alan Mills 0 · Roger McDowell 0 · Mike Milchin 0 · Arthur Rhodes 0 · Archie Corbin 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1996 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Brady Anderson 32 FA-elig 1496.9 3.6 +2.2
Mike Mussina 27 arb 365.3 4.0 +0.5
Roberto Alomar 28 FA-elig 1535.2 4.3 +0.1
Rafael Palmeiro 31 FA-elig 1624.5 5.4 -1.6
Cal Ripken Jr. 35 FA-elig 1633.8 6.7 -3.4
Scott Erickson 28 FA-elig 343.6 2.9 +0.2
David Wells 33 FA-elig 343.4 3.2 -0.3
B.J. Surhoff 31 FA-elig 1433.0 1.4 +1.1
Chris Hoiles 31 FA-elig 1272.5 3.4 -1.3
Randy Myers 33 FA-elig 621.3 2.6 -1.5
Bobby Bonilla 33 FA-elig 1591.0 5.1 -4.2
Arthur Rhodes 26 arb 281.0 0.3 +0.5
Jesse Orosco 39 FA-elig 660.8 0.8 -0.1
Rocky Coppinger 22 pre-arb 230.7 0.1 +0.5
Mark Smith 26 pre-arb 270.5 0.1 +0.3
Todd Zeile↔ PHI 30 FA-elig 290.4 0.5 -0.2
Armando Benitez 23 pre-arb 180.3 0.2 +0.1
Rick Krivda 26 – 220.3 – –
Mike Milchin↔ MIN 28 pre-arb 130.2 0.0 +0.2
Brent Bowers 25 – 210.2 – –
Pete Incaviglia↔ PHI 32 FA-elig 120.2 0.1 +0.1
Nerio Rodriguez 25 – 80.2 – –
Terry Mathews↔ MIA 31 arb 140.0 0.1 -0.0
Billy Ripken 31 FA-elig 570.0 0.2 -0.2
Archie Corbin 28 arb 18-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Jimmy Haynes 23 pre-arb 26-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Mark Parent↔ DET 34 FA-elig 18-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Garrett Stephenson 24 – 3-0.1 – –
Eddie Murray↔ CLE 40 FA-elig 64-0.1 0.8 -0.9
Brian Sackinsky 25 – 3-0.1 – –
Roger McDowell 35 FA-elig 41-0.1 0.8 -0.8
Jeff Huson 31 FA-elig 17-0.1 0.3 -0.4
Esteban Yan 21 – 4-0.1 – –
Cesar Devarez 26 – 10-0.2 – –
Jimmy Myers 27 – 11-0.2 – –
Gregg Zaun↔ MIA 25 pre-arb 50-0.2 0.1 -0.3
Jeffrey Hammonds 25 arb 71-0.3 0.3 -0.6
Alan Mills 29 FA-elig 49-0.3 0.6 -0.9
Keith Shepherd 28 – 13-0.5 – –
Kent Mercker↔ CLE 28 FA-elig 14-0.5 1.6 -2.0
Mike Devereaux 33 FA-elig 127-0.7 0.9 -1.5
Tony Tarasco 25 arb 31-0.7 0.2 -0.9
Manny Alexander 25 arb 54-1.3 0.2 -1.3
Luis Polonia↔ ATL 32 FA-elig 58-1.5 0.2 -1.4

Key additions (new vs 1995)

PlayerfWAR
Roberto Alomar5.2
David Wells3.4
B.J. Surhoff3.0
Randy Myers1.3
Rocky Coppinger0.7
Todd Zeile0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 1995)

Player1995 fWAR
Kevin Brown4.5
Harold Baines2.4
Jamie Moyer1.2
Bret Barberie1.1
Leo Gomez1.0
Ben McDonald1.0

Current & Historical Payroll

1996 payroll
$51.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 1996, 1996–2002. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (22)

PlayerAgeSvc1996199719981999200020012002
Cal Ripken Jr.3515.000$6.7M$6.8M$6.4M$6.5M$6.3M$6.3MFREE AGENT
Rafael Palmeiro3110.000$5.4M$5.3M$6.5MFREE AGENT
Bobby Bonilla3310.000$5.1MFREE AGENT
Roberto Alomar288.000$4.3M$6.4M$6.3MFREE AGENT
Brady Anderson328.000$3.6M$4.0M$5.4M$5.7M$7.1M$7.2MFREE AGENT
Chris Hoiles317.000$3.4M$3.6M$3.6MFREE AGENT
David Wells339.000$3.2MFREE AGENT
Scott Erickson286.000$2.9M$3.3M$3.7M$6.1M$6.6MFREE AGENT$5.1M
Randy Myers3311.000$2.6M$4.0MFREE AGENT
Kent Mercker287.000$1.6MFREE AGENT
B.J. Surhoff319.000$1.4M$1.6M$1.7M$3.7M$2.9MFREE AGENT
Mike Devereaux339.000$900kFREE AGENT
Eddie Murray4019.000$842kFREE AGENT
Jesse Orosco3917.000$750k$1.1M$1.1M$800kFREE AGENT
Roger McDowell3511.000$750kFREE AGENT
Alan Mills296.000$600k$850k$1.0MFREE AGENT$1.3M$3.0M
Todd Zeile307.000$480kFREE AGENT
Jeff Huson318.000$320kFREE AGENT
Billy Ripken319.000$250kFREE AGENT
Luis Polonia329.000$181kFREE AGENT
Mark Parent3410.000$161kFREE AGENT
Pete Incaviglia3210.000$59k$589kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (7)

PlayerAgeSvc1996199719981999200020012002
Mike Mussina275.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Jeffrey Hammonds253.000$300kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Arthur Rhodes265.000$300kFREE AGENT
Tony Tarasco253.000$230kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Manny Alexander254.000$190kARB 3FREE AGENT
Archie Corbin285.000$109kFREE AGENT
Terry Mathews315.000$58kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (15)

PlayerAgeSvc1996199719981999200020012002
Armando Benitez232.000$155kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Smith262.000$130kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gregg Zaun251.000$117kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jimmy Haynes231.000$115kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rocky Coppinger220.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Milchin280.000$36kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brent Bowers25–—
Cesar Devarez26–—
Rick Krivda261.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jimmy Myers27–—
Nerio Rodriguez250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Sackinsky25–—
Keith Shepherd28–—
Garrett Stephenson240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Esteban Yan210.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Orioles 1996; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'BAL',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});