RRosternomics
𝕏

Orioles BAL

‹ ›

GM: Dan Duquette

Overview

REBUILD ↗ rising
cheap & losing · year 5 in this regime · payroll 0.88× league · TAB -2.4
-2.4TAB — talent above budget18th/30
+12.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)5th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars18th/30
-6.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag21st/30
37%dead money %17th/30
0.574win %7th/30
30.3roster fWAR17th/30
-9surplus $M (value vs cost)14th/30
$87Mpayroll $M17th/30

2012: made playoffs · 93–69. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFAdam Jones 162GNate McLouth 10GEndy Chavez 3G
LFNate McLouth 64GEndy Chavez 35GXavier Avery 27G
RFNick Markakis 102GChris Davis 30GEndy Chavez 21G
SSJ.J. Hardy 158GOmar Quintanilla 30GSteve Tolleson 3G
2BRobert Andino 108GOmar Quintanilla 34GRyan Flaherty 28G
3BWilson Betemit 75GManny Machado 51GRyan Flaherty 17G
1BMark Reynolds 108GChris Davis 38GWilson Betemit 15G
STARTERSJason Hammel 2.5WARWei-Yin Chen 2.2WARJake Arrieta 1.6WARChris Tillman 1.2WARMiguel González 1.1WAR
CMatt Wieters 134GTaylor Teagarden 21GRonny Paulino 11G
DHChris Davis 60GJim Thome 36GNick Johnson 20G
BULLPEN★ Jim Johnson 51svPedro Strop 24hDarren O'Day 15hLuis Ayala 11hTroy Patton 9hJ.C. Romero 2hKevin Gregg 0hDana Eveland 0h
CMatt Wieters 134 · Taylor Teagarden 21 · Ronny Paulino 11
1BMark Reynolds 108 · Chris Davis 38 · Wilson Betemit 15
2BRobert Andino 108 · Omar Quintanilla 34 · Ryan Flaherty 28
3BWilson Betemit 75 · Manny Machado 51 · Ryan Flaherty 17
SSJ.J. Hardy 158 · Omar Quintanilla 30 · Steve Tolleson 3
LFNate McLouth 64 · Endy Chavez 35 · Xavier Avery 27
CFAdam Jones 162 · Nate McLouth 10 · Endy Chavez 3
RFNick Markakis 102 · Chris Davis 30 · Endy Chavez 21
DHChris Davis 60 · Jim Thome 36 · Nick Johnson 20
SPJason Hammel 2.5 · Wei-Yin Chen 2.2 · Jake Arrieta 1.6 · Chris Tillman 1.2 · Miguel González 1.1
BP★ Jim Johnson 51 · Pedro Strop 24 · Darren O'Day 15 · Luis Ayala 11 · Troy Patton 9 · J.C. Romero 2 · Kevin Gregg 0 · Dana Eveland 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2012 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Adam Jones 26 FA-elig 1624.4 6.2 +5.3
Matt Wieters 26 arb 1444.1 0.5 +10.1
Jason Hammel 29 FA-elig 202.5 4.8 +1.7
J.J. Hardy 29 FA-elig 1582.4 7.0 -0.9
Wei-Yin Chen 26 pre-arb 322.2 3.1 +2.6
Nick Markakis 28 FA-elig 1042.0 12.0 -6.8
Chris Davis 26 arb 1391.9 0.5 +4.3
Jake Arrieta 26 pre-arb 241.6 0.5 +3.6
Darren O'Day 29 arb 691.4 1.4 +2.4
Manny Machado 19 – 511.3 0.1 +3.1
Jim Johnson 29 FA-elig 711.2 2.6 +0.6
Chris Tillman 24 pre-arb 151.2 0.5 +2.7
Nate McLouth↔ PIT 30 FA-elig 551.2 1.1 +2.0
Miguel González 28 pre-arb 181.1 0.3 +2.5
Brian Matusz 25 pre-arb 340.9 1.4 +0.9
Troy Patton 26 arb 540.9 0.5 +1.9
Luis Ayala 34 FA-elig 660.9 0.8 +1.4
Joe Saunders↔ ARI 31 FA-elig 70.8 1.5 +0.6
Pedro Strop 27 arb 700.7 0.5 +1.2
Wilson Betemit 30 FA-elig 1020.6 1.0 +0.7
Mark Reynolds 28 arb 1350.6 7.5 -5.9
Steve Johnson 24 pre-arb 120.6 0.3 +1.2
Nolan Reimold 28 arb 160.6 0.5 +1.1
Zack Britton 24 pre-arb 120.6 0.5 +1.0
Matt Lindstrom↔ ARI 32 arb 340.3 2.7 -1.8
Steve Pearce↔ HOU 29 – 280.1 – –
Lew Ford 35 – 250.1 – –
Nick Johnson 33 FA-elig 380.0 0.8 -0.7
Dylan Bundy 19 pre-arb 2-0.0 1.2 -1.3
Stu Pomeranz 27 – 3-0.0 – –
Bill Hall 32 – 7-0.0 0.2 -0.3
L.J. Hoes 22 – 2-0.0 0.5 -0.5
Dana Eveland 28 FA-elig 14-0.0 0.8 -0.9
Randy Wolf↔ MIL 35 FA-elig 5-0.1 1.5 -1.7
Zach Phillips 25 pre-arb 6-0.1 0.5 -0.7
J.C. Romero↔ STL 36 FA-elig 5-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Joe Mahoney 25 pre-arb 2-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Xavier Avery 22 – 32-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Jason Berken↔ CHC 28 – 1-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Jim Thome↔ PHI 41 FA-elig 28-0.1 0.6 -1.0
Miguel Socolovich↔ CHC 25 – 6-0.2 0.2 -0.7
Kevin Gregg 34 FA-elig 40-0.2 5.8 -6.3
Omar Quintanilla↔ NYM 30 – 36-0.3 – –
Luis Exposito 25 pre-arb 9-0.3 0.5 -1.2
Robert Andino 28 FA-elig 127-0.4 1.3 -2.2
Tommy Hunter 25 arb 33-0.4 0.5 -1.5
Steve Tolleson 28 pre-arb 29-0.4 0.5 -1.5
Taylor Teagarden 28 arb 22-0.4 0.5 -1.6
Ronny Paulino 31 FA-elig 20-0.5 1.0 -2.2
Ryan Flaherty 25 pre-arb 77-0.5 0.5 -1.8
Endy Chavez 34 FA-elig 64-0.9 1.5 -3.7
Brian Roberts 34 FA-elig 17-0.9 10.0 -12.4

Key additions (new vs 2011)

PlayerfWAR
Jason Hammel2.5
Wei-Yin Chen2.2
Darren O'Day1.4
Manny Machado1.3
Nate McLouth1.2
Miguel González1.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2011)

Player2011 fWAR
Jeremy Guthrie1.8
Koji Uehara1.1
Alfredo Simon0.9
Cesar Izturis0.1
Willie Eyre0.1
Michael Gonzalez0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2012 payroll
$87.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 2012, 2012–2018. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Nick Markakis286.000$12.0M$15.0M$15.0MFREE AGENT
Brian Roberts349.131$10.0M$10.0MFREE AGENT
J.J. Hardy2912.164$7.0M$7.0M$7.0M$11.5M$12.5M$14.0MFREE AGENT
Kevin Gregg349.000$5.8MFREE AGENT
Matt Lindstrom328.000$2.7MFREE AGENT
Randy Wolf3512.115$1.5MFREE AGENT
Endy Chavez348.031$1.5MFREE AGENT
Nate McLouth306.033$1.1M$2.0MFREE AGENT
Wilson Betemit306.107$1.0M$1.8MFREE AGENT
Luis Ayala348.121$825k$949kFREE AGENT
Nick Johnson339.041$800kFREE AGENT
Jim Thome4119.042$603kFREE AGENT
Bill Hall328.099$250kFREE AGENT
J.C. Romero3611.014$234kFREE AGENT
Lew Ford359.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Mark Reynolds284.138$7.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Jones264.139$6.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Hammel294.153$4.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Johnson293.165$2.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Saunders315.013$1.5MFREE AGENT
Darren O'Day293.103$1.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robert Andino283.094$1.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ronny Paulino315.112$1.0MFREE AGENT
Dana Eveland284.164$750kARB 3FREE AGENT
Omar Quintanilla303.164—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Pearce295.000—FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (26)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Wei-Yin Chen260.000$3.1MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Matusz252.026$1.4MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dylan Bundy190.000$1.2MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Wieters262.129$500kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Hunter252.090$494kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nolan Reimold282.044$490kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Teagarden282.020$490kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Arrieta261.116$488kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Davis262.061$488kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zack Britton240.159$486kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Troy Patton261.150$484kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Strop270.156$482kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Tillman241.028$480kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
L.J. Hoes220.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Phillips250.091$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Xavier Avery22–$480k
Joe Mahoney250.008$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Exposito250.060$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Flaherty250.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Tolleson280.060$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel González281.000$317kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Johnson241.046$307kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Socolovich251.085$240kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Manny Machado190.000$113kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Berken282.110$96kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Stu Pomeranz27–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Orioles 2012; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'BAL',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});