RRosternomics
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Orioles BAL

‹ ›

GM: Dan Duquette

Overview

CONTEND ↘ cooling
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.22× league · TAB +0.6
+0.6TAB — talent above budget14th/30
+4.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)7th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars16th/30
-2.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag2nd/30
14%dead money %2nd/30
0.549win %7th/30
37.2roster fWAR13th/30
-32surplus $M (value vs cost)21st/30
$153Mpayroll $M9th/30

2016: made playoffs · 89–73. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFAdam Jones 152GMichael Bourn 77GDrew Stubbs 15G
LFHyun Soo Kim 91GNolan Reimold 62GJoey Rickard 31G
RFMark Trumbo 95GJoey Rickard 51GNolan Reimold 32G
SSJ.J. Hardy 115GManny Machado 45GRyan Flaherty 13G
2BJonathan Schoop 162GSteve Pearce 15GRyan Flaherty 1G
3BManny Machado 114GRyan Flaherty 40GPedro Álvarez 12G
1BChris Davis 152GSteve Pearce 40GRyan Flaherty 7G
STARTERSKevin Gausman 3.1WARChris Tillman 2.4WARUbaldo Jiménez 1.6WARWade Miley 1.0WARDylan Bundy 0.9WAR
CMatt Wieters 117GCaleb Joseph 48GFrancisco Peña 14G
DHPedro Álvarez 85GMark Trumbo 59GSteve Pearce 13G
BULLPEN★ Zack Britton 47svBrad Brach 24hMychal Givens 13hDarren O'Day 10hDonnie Hart 4hTommy Hunter 1hT.J. McFarland 1hVance Worley 0h
CMatt Wieters 117 · Caleb Joseph 48 · Francisco Peña 14
1BChris Davis 152 · Steve Pearce 40 · Ryan Flaherty 7
2BJonathan Schoop 162 · Steve Pearce 15 · Ryan Flaherty 1
3BManny Machado 114 · Ryan Flaherty 40 · Pedro Álvarez 12
SSJ.J. Hardy 115 · Manny Machado 45 · Ryan Flaherty 13
LFHyun Soo Kim 91 · Nolan Reimold 62 · Joey Rickard 31
CFAdam Jones 152 · Michael Bourn 77 · Drew Stubbs 15
RFMark Trumbo 95 · Joey Rickard 51 · Nolan Reimold 32
DHPedro Álvarez 85 · Mark Trumbo 59 · Steve Pearce 13
SPKevin Gausman 3.1 · Chris Tillman 2.4 · Ubaldo Jiménez 1.6 · Wade Miley 1.0 · Dylan Bundy 0.9
BP★ Zack Britton 47 · Brad Brach 24 · Mychal Givens 13 · Darren O'Day 10 · Donnie Hart 4 · Tommy Hunter 1 · T.J. McFarland 1 · Vance Worley 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2016 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Manny Machado 23 arb 1575.7 5.0 +13.6
Jonathan Schoop 24 arb 1623.5 0.5 +10.7
Kevin Gausman 25 arb 303.1 0.5 +9.6
Adam Jones 30 FA-elig 1522.6 16.3 -7.9
Zack Britton 28 arb 692.5 6.8 +1.4
Chris Tillman 28 FA-elig 302.4 6.2 +1.7
Mark Trumbo 30 FA-elig 1591.9 9.2 -2.9
Brad Brach 30 arb 711.7 1.2 +4.2
Ubaldo Jiménez 32 FA-elig 291.6 13.0 -7.7
Chris Davis 30 FA-elig 1571.6 23.0 -17.8
J.J. Hardy 33 FA-elig 1151.5 12.5 -7.5
Hyun Soo Kim 28 pre-arb 951.5 2.8 +2.2
Matt Wieters 30 FA-elig 1241.4 15.8 -11.4
Mychal Givens 26 pre-arb 661.2 0.5 +3.3
Pedro Álvarez 29 FA-elig 1091.1 5.8 -2.2
Wade Miley↔ SEA 29 arb 111.0 2.3 +1.0
Dylan Bundy 23 pre-arb 360.9 1.8 +1.3
Yovani Gallardo 30 FA-elig 240.8 9.0 -6.4
Joey Rickard 25 pre-arb 850.7 0.5 +1.7
Michael Bourn↔ ARI 33 FA-elig 240.5 0.1 +1.5
Tyler Wilson 26 pre-arb 240.4 0.4 +1.0
Trey Mancini 24 – 50.3 0.0 +1.1
Tommy Hunter↔ CLE 29 FA-elig 120.2 0.7 +0.0
Oliver Drake 29 pre-arb 140.2 0.1 +0.5
Mike Wright Jr. 26 pre-arb 180.2 0.5 +0.1
Donnie Hart 25 – 220.2 0.2 +0.4
Aríel Miranda↔ SEA 27 – 10.1 0.0 +0.3
Darren O'Day 33 FA-elig 340.1 6.0 -5.7
Steve Pearce↔ TBR 33 FA-elig 250.1 1.4 -1.2
Vance Worley 28 FA-elig 350.1 2.6 -2.4
Jayson Aquino 23 pre-arb 30.1 0.1 +0.1
Dariel Álvarez 27 pre-arb 20.1 0.0 +0.2
Brian Duensing 33 FA-elig 140.1 0.3 -0.2
Francisco Peña 26 pre-arb 14-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Ryan Flaherty 29 arb 74-0.0 1.5 -1.6
Ashur Tolliver 28 – 5-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Logan Ondrusek 31 arb 7-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Chaz Roe↔ ATL 29 arb 9-0.1 0.2 -0.5
Odrisamer Despaigne↔ MIA 29 – 16-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Parker Bridwell 24 pre-arb 2-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Paul Janish 33 arb 14-0.1 0.2 -0.6
Julio Borbon 30 pre-arb 6-0.1 0.0 -0.5
Drew Stubbs↔ ATL 31 FA-elig 20-0.2 0.2 -0.7
Nolan Reimold 32 FA-elig 104-0.2 1.3 -2.0
T.J. McFarland 27 arb 16-0.3 0.5 -1.4
Caleb Joseph 30 pre-arb 49-0.3 0.5 -1.5
Brian Matusz↔ CHC 29 arb 7-0.4 3.4 -4.7

Key additions (new vs 2015)

PlayerfWAR
Mark Trumbo1.9
Hyun Soo Kim1.5
Pedro Álvarez1.1
Wade Miley1.0
Dylan Bundy0.9
Yovani Gallardo0.8

Key subtractions (gone from 2015)

Player2015 fWAR
Wei-Yin Chen2.8
Rey Navarro0.1
Travis Snider0.0
Wesley Wright0.0
Cesar Cabral-0.0
Chris Parmelee-0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2016 payroll
$153.3M
2017 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2016, 2016–2022. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2016; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Chris Davis306.061$23.0MFREE AGENT
Adam Jones308.139$16.3MFREE AGENT
Matt Wieters306.129$15.8MFREE AGENT
Ubaldo Jiménez328.087$13.0MFREE AGENT
J.J. Hardy3312.164$12.5MFREE AGENT
Yovani Gallardo308.108$9.0MFREE AGENT
Darren O'Day337.103$6.0MFREE AGENT
Steve Pearce339.000$1.4MFREE AGENT
Tommy Hunter296.090$727kFREE AGENT
Brian Duensing336.104$341kFREE AGENT
Drew Stubbs316.005$172kFREE AGENT
Michael Bourn339.028$64kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Mark Trumbo305.027$9.2MFREE AGENT
Zack Britton283.158$6.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Tillman284.113$6.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Álvarez295.085$5.8MFREE AGENT
Manny Machado233.056$5.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Matusz295.156$3.4MFREE AGENT
Vance Worley283.112$2.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wade Miley294.044$2.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Flaherty294.000$1.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Nolan Reimold325.113$1.3MFREE AGENT
Brad Brach303.063$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Janish334.156$175kARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Ondrusek314.125$42kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (22)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Hyun Soo Kim280.000$2.8MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dylan Bundy230.026$1.8MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Gausman251.151$532kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
T.J. McFarland272.061$524kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Caleb Joseph301.145$524kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Schoop242.027$522kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mychal Givens260.069$511kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Wright Jr.260.100$510kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Rickard250.000$507kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Wilson261.037$386kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chaz Roe291.041$216kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Donnie Hart250.000$172kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Oliver Drake290.048$128kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Francisco Peña260.070$122kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Odrisamer Despaigne292.075$117kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jayson Aquino230.034$94kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trey Mancini240.000$42kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ashur Tolliver280.000$36kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Julio Borbon302.105$22kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aríel Miranda271.061$14kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Parker Bridwell240.104$11kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dariel Álvarez270.045$8kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Orioles 2016; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'BAL',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});