RRosternomics
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Red Sox BOS

‹ ›

GM: Theo Epstein

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.64× league · TAB +8.0
+8.0TAB — talent above budget5th/30
+7.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)6th/30
10.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars3rd/30
-2.4dead WAR — sub-replacement drag3rd/30
22%dead money %8th/30
0.593win %1st/30
48.1roster fWAR1st/30
-32surplus $M (value vs cost)24th/30
$135Mpayroll $M2nd/30

2007: World Series champions · 96–66. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFCoco Crisp 144GJacoby Ellsbury 16GWily Mo Peña 12G
LFManny Ramirez 120GEric Hinske 24GJacoby Ellsbury 22G
RFJ.D. Drew 133GBobby Kielty 17GEric Hinske 12G
SSJulio Lugo 145GRoyce Clayton 69GAlex Cora 33G
2BDustin Pedroia 137GAlex Cora 47G
3BMike Lowell 154GKevin Youkilis 13GRoyce Clayton 3G
1BKevin Youkilis 135GEric Hinske 43GDavid Ortiz 7G
STARTERSJosh Beckett 5.7WARDaisuke Matsuzaka 2.8WARCurt Schilling 2.3WARTim Wakefield 1.9WARJulian Tavarez 0.9WAR
CJason Varitek 125GDoug Mirabelli 46GKevin Cash 12G
DHDavid Ortiz 140GManny Ramirez 11GEric Hinske 3G
BULLPEN★ Jonathan Papelbon 37svHideki Okajima 27hJavier López 13hManny Delcarmen 11hBrendan Donnelly 8hMike Timlin 8hEric Gagne 4hKyle Snyder 1h
CJason Varitek 125 · Doug Mirabelli 46 · Kevin Cash 12
1BKevin Youkilis 135 · Eric Hinske 43 · David Ortiz 7
2BDustin Pedroia 137 · Alex Cora 47
3BMike Lowell 154 · Kevin Youkilis 13 · Royce Clayton 3
SSJulio Lugo 145 · Royce Clayton 69 · Alex Cora 33
LFManny Ramirez 120 · Eric Hinske 24 · Jacoby Ellsbury 22
CFCoco Crisp 144 · Jacoby Ellsbury 16 · Wily Mo Peña 12
RFJ.D. Drew 133 · Bobby Kielty 17 · Eric Hinske 12
DHDavid Ortiz 140 · Manny Ramirez 11 · Eric Hinske 3
SPJosh Beckett 5.7 · Daisuke Matsuzaka 2.8 · Curt Schilling 2.3 · Tim Wakefield 1.9 · Julian Tavarez 0.9
BP★ Jonathan Papelbon 37 · Hideki Okajima 27 · Javier López 13 · Manny Delcarmen 11 · Brendan Donnelly 8 · Mike Timlin 8 · Eric Gagne 4 · Kyle Snyder 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2007 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
David Ortiz 31 FA-elig 1496.3 13.2 +0.3
Josh Beckett 27 FA-elig 305.7 6.7 +5.6
Mike Lowell 33 FA-elig 1544.5 9.0 +0.7
Coco Crisp 27 arb 1454.4 3.8 +5.6
Kevin Youkilis 28 arb 1454.1 0.4 +8.4
Dustin Pedroia 23 pre-arb 1393.7 0.4 +7.6
Daisuke Matsuzaka 26 pre-arb 322.8 6.3 -0.3
Jason Varitek 35 FA-elig 1312.6 11.0 -5.3
Curt Schilling 40 FA-elig 242.3 13.0 -8.0
Jonathan Papelbon 26 pre-arb 592.1 0.4 +4.0
J.D. Drew 31 FA-elig 1402.0 14.0 -9.8
Tim Wakefield 40 FA-elig 311.9 4.0 +0.0
Manny Ramirez 35 FA-elig 1331.2 17.0 -14.4
Jacoby Ellsbury 23 – 331.2 0.4 +2.2
Hideki Okajima 31 pre-arb 661.1 1.2 +1.2
Julian Tavarez 34 FA-elig 340.9 3.4 -1.5
Clay Buchholz 22 – 40.7 0.1 +1.4
Brendan Donnelly 35 arb 270.5 1.4 -0.3
Alex Cora 31 FA-elig 830.5 2.0 -1.0
Kason Gabbard↔ TEX 25 – 70.4 – –
Julio Lugo 31 FA-elig 1470.4 8.2 -7.4
Manny Delcarmen 25 – 440.4 – –
Eric Gagne↔ TEX 31 FA-elig 200.3 2.2 -1.6
Jon Lester 23 pre-arb 120.2 0.4 +0.0
Brandon Moss 23 – 150.1 0.4 -0.1
Bobby Kielty↔ OAK 30 FA-elig 200.1 1.3 -1.0
Bryan Corey 33 – 90.1 – –
Javier López 29 arb 610.1 0.4 -0.2
David Murphy↔ TEX 25 – 30.0 0.0 +0.0
Mike Timlin 41 FA-elig 500.0 2.8 -2.8
Jeff Bailey 28 – 3-0.0 – –
Joel Pineiro↔ STL 28 FA-elig 31-0.1 2.8 -2.9
Doug Mirabelli 36 FA-elig 48-0.1 0.8 -1.0
Devern Hansack 29 – 3-0.2 – –
Royce Clayton↔ TOR 37 FA-elig 8-0.2 0.2 -0.6
Kevin Cash 29 – 12-0.2 – –
Eric Hinske 29 arb 84-0.2 5.6 -6.1
J.C. Romero↔ PHI 31 FA-elig 23-0.3 0.5 -1.0
Kyle Snyder 29 arb 46-0.5 0.5 -1.6
Wily Mo Peña↔ WSN 25 arb 73-0.6 1.2 -2.5

Key additions (new vs 2006)

PlayerfWAR
Daisuke Matsuzaka2.8
J.D. Drew2.0
Jacoby Ellsbury1.2
Hideki Okajima1.1
Clay Buchholz0.7
Brendan Donnelly0.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2006)

Player2006 fWAR
Trot Nixon1.7
Álex González1.6
Mark Loretta0.5
Craig Breslow0.3
Matt Clement0.3
David Pauley0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2007 payroll
$135.1M

What the front office was committed to as of 2007, 2007–2013. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Manny Ramirez3514.000$17.0M$12.4MFREE AGENT
J.D. Drew319.000$14.0M$14.0M$14.0M$14.0M$14.0MFREE AGENT
David Ortiz3110.000$13.2M$13.0M$13.0M$13.0M$12.5M$14.6M$14.0M
Curt Schilling4019.000$13.0MFREE AGENT
Jason Varitek3510.000$11.0M$10.4M$5.0M$3.0M$2.0MFREE AGENT
Mike Lowell339.000$9.0M$12.5M$12.5M$12.5MFREE AGENT
Julio Lugo317.000$8.2M$9.2M$5.4MFREE AGENT
Josh Beckett276.000$6.7M$10.2M$11.2M$12.1M$17.0M$12.8MFREE AGENT
Tim Wakefield4015.000$4.0M$4.0M$4.0M$3.5M$2.0MFREE AGENT
Julian Tavarez3414.000$3.4M$2.7MFREE AGENT
Mike Timlin4116.000$2.8M$3.0MFREE AGENT
Joel Pineiro287.000$2.8MFREE AGENT
Eric Gagne318.000$2.2MFREE AGENT
Alex Cora319.000$2.0M$2.0MFREE AGENT
Bobby Kielty306.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
Doug Mirabelli3611.000$750kFREE AGENT
J.C. Romero318.000$497kFREE AGENT
Royce Clayton3716.000$156kFREE AGENT
Bryan Corey339.000—$343kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Eric Hinske295.000$5.6MFREE AGENT
Coco Crisp275.000$3.8MFREE AGENT
Brendan Donnelly355.000$1.4MFREE AGENT
Wily Mo Peña255.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Kyle Snyder294.000$535kARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Youkilis283.000$424kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Javier López294.000$402kARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Cash295.000—FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Daisuke Matsuzaka260.000$6.3MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hideki Okajima310.000$1.2MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Papelbon262.000$426kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jon Lester231.000$384kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Moss230.000$380kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacoby Ellsbury230.000$380kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dustin Pedroia231.000$380kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Clay Buchholz220.000$91kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Murphy251.000$25kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Bailey28–—
Manny Delcarmen252.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kason Gabbard251.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Devern Hansack29–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Red Sox 2007; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'BOS',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});