RRosternomics
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Red Sox BOS

‹ ›

President of baseball ops: Craig Breslow

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.15× league · TAB +7.8
+7.8TAB — talent above budget5th/30
+5.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)12th/30
11.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars1st/30
-5.3dead WAR — sub-replacement drag19th/30
37%dead money %22nd/30
0.549win %9th/30
43.7roster fWAR8th/30
-4surplus $M (value vs cost)14th/30
$178Mpayroll $M11th/30

2025: made playoffs · 89–73. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFCeddanne Rafaela 141GJarren Duran 28GKristian Campbell 7G
LFJarren Duran 139GRoman Anthony 19GRob Refsnyder 16G
RFWilyer Abreu 104GRoman Anthony 36GRob Refsnyder 29G
SSTrevor Story 156GDavid Hamilton 12GMarcelo Mayer 2G
2BDavid Hamilton 68GKristian Campbell 59GRomy Gonzalez 42G
3BAlex Bregman 113GMarcelo Mayer 39GAbraham Toro 16G
1BNathaniel Lowe 146GAbraham Toro 68GRomy Gonzalez 58G
STARTERSGarrett Crochet 5.8WARLucas Giolito 2.0WARBrayan Bello 1.9WARHunter Dobbins 1.0WARKyle Harrison 0.4WAR
CCarlos Narváez 112GConnor Wong 61GAli Sánchez 11G
DHMasataka Yoshida 44GRob Refsnyder 20GRoman Anthony 18G
BULLPEN★ Aroldis Chapman 32svGarrett Whitlock 24hJustin Wilson 19hGreg Weissert 17hSteven Matz 13hJustin Slaten 7hZack Kelly 3hBrennan Bernardino 2h
CCarlos Narváez 112 · Connor Wong 61 · Ali Sánchez 11
1BNathaniel Lowe 146 · Abraham Toro 68 · Romy Gonzalez 58
2BDavid Hamilton 68 · Kristian Campbell 59 · Romy Gonzalez 42
3BAlex Bregman 113 · Marcelo Mayer 39 · Abraham Toro 16
SSTrevor Story 156 · David Hamilton 12 · Marcelo Mayer 2
LFJarren Duran 139 · Roman Anthony 19 · Rob Refsnyder 16
CFCeddanne Rafaela 141 · Jarren Duran 28 · Kristian Campbell 7
RFWilyer Abreu 104 · Roman Anthony 36 · Rob Refsnyder 29
DHMasataka Yoshida 44 · Rob Refsnyder 20 · Roman Anthony 18
SPGarrett Crochet 5.8 · Lucas Giolito 2.0 · Brayan Bello 1.9 · Hunter Dobbins 1.0 · Kyle Harrison 0.4
BP★ Aroldis Chapman 32 · Garrett Whitlock 24 · Justin Wilson 19 · Greg Weissert 17 · Steven Matz 13 · Justin Slaten 7 · Zack Kelly 3 · Brennan Bernardino 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2025 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Garrett Crochet 26 arb 325.8 3.8 +19.3
Jarren Duran 28 pre-arb 1573.9 3.9 +11.7
Ceddanne Rafaela 24 pre-arb 1563.8 1.2 +13.9
Alex Bregman 31 FA-elig 1143.5 25.0 -10.9
Trevor Story 32 FA-elig 1573.0 22.5 -10.4
Roman Anthony 21 – 712.7 0.5 +10.4
Carlos Narváez 26 pre-arb 1182.7 0.8 +9.9
Aroldis Chapman 37 FA-elig 672.6 10.8 -0.2
Wilyer Abreu 26 pre-arb 1152.4 0.8 +8.9
Garrett Whitlock 29 arb 622.2 5.5 +3.5
Rafael Devers↔ SFG 28 – 732.0 6.9 +1.2
Lucas Giolito 30 FA-elig 262.0 19.0 -11.2
Brayan Bello 26 pre-arb 291.9 2.7 +5.0
Romy Gonzalez 28 pre-arb 961.5 0.8 +5.0
Connelly Early 23 – 41.1 0.1 +4.3
Justin Wilson 37 FA-elig 611.0 3.0 +1.1
Rob Refsnyder 34 FA-elig 701.0 2.1 +1.9
Hunter Dobbins 25 – 131.0 0.6 +3.2
Sean Newcomb↔ OAK 32 – 120.7 0.2 +2.6
Greg Weissert 30 pre-arb 720.7 0.8 +1.9
Brennan Bernardino 33 pre-arb 550.6 0.7 +1.7
Marcelo Mayer 22 – 440.4 0.5 +1.2
Nathaniel Lowe↔ WSN 29 arb 340.4 2.3 -0.5
Justin Slaten 27 pre-arb 360.4 0.8 +0.8
Zack Kelly 30 pre-arb 280.4 0.5 +1.0
Kyle Harrison↔ SFG 23 pre-arb 30.4 0.0 +1.4
Nate Eaton 28 pre-arb 410.3 0.3 +1.0
Josh Winckowski 27 pre-arb 60.2 0.7 -0.1
David Hamilton 27 pre-arb 910.1 0.7 -0.1
José De León 32 – 10.1 0.0 +0.4
Nick Burdi 32 arb 40.1 0.4 -0.1
Jovani Morán 28 pre-arb 20.0 0.0 +0.1
Jhostynxon Garcia 22 – 5-0.0 0.0 -0.0
Luis Guerrero 24 pre-arb 13-0.0 0.5 -0.6
Isaiah Campbell 27 pre-arb 6-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Liam Hendriks 36 FA-elig 14-0.0 6.0 -6.1
Ali Sánchez↔ TOR 28 pre-arb 4-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Cooper Criswell 28 pre-arb 7-0.0 0.1 -0.3
Michael Fulmer↔ CHC 32 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Steven Matz↔ STL 34 FA-elig 21-0.1 3.4 -3.6
Dustin May↔ LAD 27 arb 6-0.1 0.3 -0.6
Masataka Yoshida 31 pre-arb 55-0.1 18.6 -18.9
Robert Stock 35 pre-arb 2-0.1 0.0 -0.5
Jorge Alcala↔ MIN 29 – 19-0.1 0.2 -0.6
Nick Sogard 27 pre-arb 30-0.1 0.3 -0.8
Kristian Campbell 23 – 67-0.2 1.2 -2.0
Payton Tolle 22 – 7-0.2 0.1 -0.9
Chris Murphy 27 pre-arb 23-0.2 0.7 -1.5
Blake Sabol 27 – 8-0.2 0.1 -1.1
Richard Fitts 25 pre-arb 11-0.3 0.6 -1.9
Tanner Houck 29 arb 9-0.3 4.0 -5.3
Jordan Hicks↔ SFG 28 FA-elig 21-0.4 4.5 -6.1
Triston Casas 25 pre-arb 29-0.6 0.8 -3.2
Walker Buehler↔ PHI 30 – 23-0.7 17.3 -19.9
Connor Wong 29 pre-arb 63-0.7 0.8 -3.5
Abraham Toro 28 arb 77-0.7 0.6 -3.4

Key additions (new vs 2024)

PlayerfWAR
Garrett Crochet5.8
Alex Bregman3.5
Roman Anthony2.7
Carlos Narváez2.7
Aroldis Chapman2.6
Lucas Giolito2.0

Key subtractions (gone from 2024)

Player2024 fWAR
Tyler O'Neill2.5
Nick Pivetta2.0
Kenley Jansen1.4
Chris Martin0.9
Dominic Smith0.3
James Paxton0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2025 payroll
$178.0M
2026 guaranteed
$95.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2025, 2025–2031. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2025; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (17)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Alex Bregman318.070$25.0MFREE AGENT
Trevor Story329.000$22.5M$25.0MOPT-OUT$25.0M$25.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Lucas Giolito307.080$19.0MPLAYERFREE AGENT
Masataka Yoshida312.000$18.6M$18.6M$18.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Walker Buehler306.168$17.3MFREE AGENT
Aroldis Chapman3714.009$10.8MFREE AGENT
Rafael Devers287.070$6.9M$27.0M$28.5M$28.5M$28.5M$28.5M$28.5M
Liam Hendriks3610.164$6.0MFREE AGENT
Garrett Whitlock294.000$5.5M$7.5M$8.2MCLUB$10.5MCLUBFREE AGENT
Jordan Hicks287.000$4.5M$8.5M$8.5MFREE AGENT
Steven Matz349.099$3.4MFREE AGENT
Justin Wilson3712.035$3.0MFREE AGENT
Brayan Bello262.082$2.7M$6.2M$8.7M$16.2M$19.2M$21.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Rob Refsnyder346.048$2.1MCLUBFREE AGENT
Ceddanne Rafaela241.035$1.2M$2.2M$3.8M$5.8M$7.8M$10.8M$13.2M
Michael Fulmer327.157$13kFREE AGENT
José De León329.000$5kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Tanner Houck293.100$4.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Garrett Crochet264.028$3.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Nathaniel Lowe294.145$2.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Abraham Toro283.165$597kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Burdi324.095$407kARB 3FREE AGENT
Dustin May275.059$350kFREE AGENT
Jorge Alcala294.165$189kARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Newcomb325.041$168kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (31)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Jarren Duran282.155$3.9MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kristian Campbell230.000$1.2MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Connor Wong292.079$790kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilyer Abreu261.041$780kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Slaten271.000$776kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Romy Gonzalez282.083$774kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Triston Casas252.032$774kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Greg Weissert301.079$774kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Narváez260.038$764kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brennan Bernardino331.153$703kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Hamilton271.020$684kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Murphy271.081$664kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Winckowski272.045$654kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Dobbins250.000$621kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Richard Fitts250.022$580kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Guerrero240.024$535kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marcelo Mayer220.000$523kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zack Kelly302.017$485kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roman Anthony210.000$458kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Sogard270.050$282kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nate Eaton280.125$274kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Isaiah Campbell271.011$152kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Sabol271.023$146kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cooper Criswell281.117$140kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Payton Tolle220.000$127kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Connelly Early230.000$82kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Harrison231.041$45kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jovani Morán281.090$41kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robert Stock352.030$38kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jhostynxon Garcia220.000$37kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ali Sánchez281.000$33kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Red Sox 2025; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'BOS',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});