RRosternomics
𝕏

Cubs CHC

‹ ›

GM: Jim Hendry

Overview

CONTEND ↘ cooling
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.2× league · TAB +4.4
+4.4TAB — talent above budget12th/30
+3.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)14th/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars9th/30
-4.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag11th/30
30%dead money %14th/30
0.543win %9th/30
40.8roster fWAR11th/30
-9surplus $M (value vs cost)16th/30
$83Mpayroll $M9th/30

2003: made playoffs · 88–74. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFKenny Lofton 136GCorey Patterson 82GDoug Glanville 67G
LFMoises Alou 142GTroy O'Leary 28GTom Goodwin 17G
RFSammy Sosa 137GTroy O'Leary 24GTom Goodwin 15G
SSAlex Gonzalez 150GJosé Hernández 74GTony Womack 73G
2BMark Grudzielanek 121GRamon Martinez 42GTony Womack 21G
3BAramis Ramirez 159GRamon Martinez 37GLenny Harris 35G
1BRandall Simon 109GEric Karros 97GHee-Seop Choi 69G
STARTERSMark Prior 8.4WARCarlos Zambrano 5.4WARKerry Wood 4.3WARMatt Clement 2.8WARJuan Cruz 0.9WAR
CDamian Miller 114GPaul Bako 69GJosh Paul 14G
DHMoises Alou 9G
BULLPEN★ Joe Borowski 33svKyle Farnsworth 19hMike Remlinger 17hMark Guthrie 10hAntonio Alfonseca 9hDave Veres 4hTodd Wellemeyer 1hSergio Mitre 0h
CDamian Miller 114 · Paul Bako 69 · Josh Paul 14
1BRandall Simon 109 · Eric Karros 97 · Hee-Seop Choi 69
2BMark Grudzielanek 121 · Ramon Martinez 42 · Tony Womack 21
3BAramis Ramirez 159 · Ramon Martinez 37 · Lenny Harris 35
SSAlex Gonzalez 150 · José Hernández 74 · Tony Womack 73
LFMoises Alou 142 · Troy O'Leary 28 · Tom Goodwin 17
CFKenny Lofton 136 · Corey Patterson 82 · Doug Glanville 67
RFSammy Sosa 137 · Troy O'Leary 24 · Tom Goodwin 15
DHMoises Alou 9
SPMark Prior 8.4 · Carlos Zambrano 5.4 · Kerry Wood 4.3 · Matt Clement 2.8 · Juan Cruz 0.9
BP★ Joe Borowski 33 · Kyle Farnsworth 19 · Mike Remlinger 17 · Mark Guthrie 10 · Antonio Alfonseca 9 · Dave Veres 4 · Todd Wellemeyer 1 · Sergio Mitre 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2003 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Mark Prior 22 pre-arb 328.4 1.4 +13.5
Carlos Zambrano 22 pre-arb 325.4 0.3 +9.3
Kerry Wood 26 arb 324.3 6.2 +1.5
Moises Alou 36 FA-elig 1513.4 9.5 -3.4
Matt Clement 28 arb 322.8 4.0 +1.0
Sammy Sosa 34 FA-elig 1372.8 16.0 -11.0
Corey Patterson 23 arb 832.5 0.4 +4.0
Mark Grudzielanek 33 FA-elig 1212.3 5.5 -1.4
Kenny Lofton↔ PIT 36 FA-elig 562.1 0.4 +3.2
Joe Borowski 32 FA-elig 681.8 0.4 +2.8
Alex Gonzalez 30 FA-elig 1521.6 5.8 -2.9
Kyle Farnsworth 27 arb 771.2 0.6 +1.5
Hee-Seop Choi 24 pre-arb 801.0 0.3 +1.5
Damian Miller 33 FA-elig 1140.9 2.7 -1.1
Juan Cruz 24 pre-arb 250.9 0.3 +1.2
Shawn Estes 30 FA-elig 300.8 3.0 -1.6
Aramis Ramirez↔ PIT 25 arb 630.7 1.2 +0.1
Paul Bako 31 arb 700.4 0.8 -0.0
Dave Veres 36 FA-elig 310.4 2.0 -1.3
Randall Simon↔ PIT 28 FA-elig 330.4 0.4 +0.3
Tom Goodwin 34 FA-elig 870.3 0.6 -0.1
Antonio Alfonseca 31 FA-elig 600.3 4.0 -3.5
Mike Remlinger 37 FA-elig 730.1 2.6 -2.4
Alan Benes↔ TEX 31 – 30.1 – –
Sergio Mitre 22 – 30.1 – –
Tony Womack↔ ARI 33 FA-elig 210.0 1.2 -1.2
Trenidad Hubbard 39 – 100.0 – –
Phil Norton↔ CIN 27 – 4-0.0 – –
Bobby Hill↔ PIT 25 – 5-0.1 – –
Todd Wellemeyer 24 – 15-0.1 – –
Felix Sanchez 21 – 3-0.1 – –
Mark Bellhorn↔ COL 28 FA-elig 51-0.2 0.2 -0.5
David Kelton 23 – 10-0.2 – –
Josh Paul↔ CHW 28 arb 3-0.2 0.1 -0.3
Augie Ojeda 28 – 12-0.2 – –
Doug Glanville↔ TEX 32 FA-elig 28-0.2 0.3 -0.8
Troy O'Leary 33 FA-elig 93-0.3 0.8 -1.3
José Hernández↔ COL 33 FA-elig 23-0.3 0.2 -0.8
Ramon Martinez 30 arb 108-0.4 0.8 -1.6
Mark Guthrie 37 FA-elig 65-0.4 1.6 -2.4
Eric Karros 35 FA-elig 114-0.5 8.4 -9.2
Lenny Harris↔ MIA 38 FA-elig 75-0.9 0.7 -2.3

Key additions (new vs 2002)

PlayerfWAR
Mark Grudzielanek2.3
Kenny Lofton2.1
Damian Miller0.9
Shawn Estes0.8
Aramis Ramirez0.7
Paul Bako0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2002)

Player2002 fWAR
Jon Lieber3.1
Fred McGriff2.4
Bill Mueller2.3
Jason Bere0.7
Darren Lewis0.6
Robert Machado0.5

Current & Historical Payroll

2003 payroll
$82.7M

What the front office was committed to as of 2003, 2003–2009. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (23)

PlayerAgeSvc2003200420052006200720082009
Sammy Sosa3414.000$16.0M$16.0MFREE AGENT
Moises Alou3613.000$9.5M$9.5MFREE AGENT
Eric Karros3512.000$8.4MFREE AGENT
Alex Gonzalez309.000$5.8M$2.6MFREE AGENT
Mark Grudzielanek338.000$5.5M$2.5MFREE AGENT
Antonio Alfonseca316.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Shawn Estes308.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Damian Miller336.000$2.7MFREE AGENT
Mike Remlinger3712.000$2.6M$4.0M$3.4MFREE AGENT
Dave Veres369.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Mark Guthrie3714.000$1.6MFREE AGENT
Tony Womack3310.000$1.2MFREE AGENT$1.4M
Troy O'Leary3310.000$750kFREE AGENT
Lenny Harris3815.000$682kFREE AGENT
Tom Goodwin3412.000$635k$650kFREE AGENT
Joe Borowski328.000$410k$2.0M$1.7MFREE AGENT
Kenny Lofton3612.000$410kFREE AGENT
Randall Simon286.000$393kFREE AGENT
Doug Glanville327.000$350kFREE AGENT
Mark Bellhorn286.000$240kFREE AGENT
José Hernández3312.000$153kFREE AGENT
Alan Benes318.000—FREE AGENT
Trenidad Hubbard399.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2003200420052006200720082009
Kerry Wood265.000$6.2MFREE AGENT
Matt Clement285.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Aramis Ramirez255.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Ramon Martinez305.000$800kFREE AGENT
Paul Bako315.000$750kFREE AGENT
Kyle Farnsworth274.000$600kARB 3FREE AGENT
Corey Patterson233.000$365kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Paul284.000$61kARB 3FREE AGENT
Phil Norton273.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Augie Ojeda283.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2003200420052006200720082009
Mark Prior221.000$1.4MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Cruz242.000$340kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Zambrano222.000$340kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hee-Seop Choi241.000$305kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Kelton23–—
Bobby Hill251.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Felix Sanchez21–—
Todd Wellemeyer240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sergio Mitre220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cubs 2003; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

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payroll %{x:.2f}× lg · TAB %{y:+.1f}
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'CHC',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});