RRosternomics
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Cubs CHC

‹ ›

President of baseball ops: Theo Epstein · GM: Jed Hoyer

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.05× league · TAB +13.5
+13.5TAB — talent above budget3rd/30
+14.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)3rd/30
10.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars3rd/30
-2.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag2nd/30
38%dead money %14th/30
0.599win %3rd/30
48.3roster fWAR3rd/30
+25surplus $M (value vs cost)7th/30
$127Mpayroll $M11th/30

2015: made playoffs · 97–65. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFDexter Fowler 152GAustin Jackson 115GKris Bryant 7G
LFChris Coghlan 99GChris Denorfia 43GKyle Schwarber 41G
RFJorge Soler 95GChris Denorfia 28GAustin Jackson 22G
SSStarlin Castro 109GAddison Russell 61GJavier Báez 8G
2BAddison Russell 86GStarlin Castro 38GJonathan Herrera 29G
3BKris Bryant 144GJonathan Herrera 16GTommy La Stella 12G
1BAnthony Rizzo 160GChris Coghlan 5GMike Baxter 2G
STARTERSJake Arrieta 7.3WARJon Lester 4.5WARKyle Hendricks 2.7WARJason Hammel 2.3WARTravis Wood 1.2WAR
CMiguel Montero 109GDavid Ross 59GKyle Schwarber 21G
DHKyle Schwarber 6GMike Baxter 1GKris Bryant 1G
BULLPEN★ Héctor Rondón 30svPedro Strop 28hJustin Grimm 15hFernando Rodney 9hJason Motte 9hJames Russell 8hTommy Hunter 7hZac Rosscup 6h
CMiguel Montero 109 · David Ross 59 · Kyle Schwarber 21
1BAnthony Rizzo 160 · Chris Coghlan 5 · Mike Baxter 2
2BAddison Russell 86 · Starlin Castro 38 · Jonathan Herrera 29
3BKris Bryant 144 · Jonathan Herrera 16 · Tommy La Stella 12
SSStarlin Castro 109 · Addison Russell 61 · Javier Báez 8
LFChris Coghlan 99 · Chris Denorfia 43 · Kyle Schwarber 41
CFDexter Fowler 152 · Austin Jackson 115 · Kris Bryant 7
RFJorge Soler 95 · Chris Denorfia 28 · Austin Jackson 22
DHKyle Schwarber 6 · Mike Baxter 1 · Kris Bryant 1
SPJake Arrieta 7.3 · Jon Lester 4.5 · Kyle Hendricks 2.7 · Jason Hammel 2.3 · Travis Wood 1.2
BP★ Héctor Rondón 30 · Pedro Strop 28 · Justin Grimm 15 · Fernando Rodney 9 · Jason Motte 9 · James Russell 8 · Tommy Hunter 7 · Zac Rosscup 6

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2015 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Jake Arrieta 29 arb 337.3 3.6 +19.3
Kris Bryant 23 – 1516.1 0.5 +18.8
Anthony Rizzo 25 arb 1605.2 5.0 +11.5
Jon Lester 31 FA-elig 324.5 20.0 -5.9
Chris Coghlan 30 FA-elig 1483.1 2.5 +7.4
Miguel Montero 31 FA-elig 1133.1 12.0 -2.2
Dexter Fowler 29 FA-elig 1563.0 9.5 -0.2
Kyle Hendricks 25 pre-arb 322.7 0.5 +8.1
Addison Russell 21 – 1422.6 0.5 +7.6
Jason Hammel 32 FA-elig 322.3 9.0 -1.7
Kyle Schwarber 22 – 691.8 0.2 +5.4
Héctor Rondón 27 pre-arb 721.6 0.5 +4.4
Travis Wood 28 arb 601.2 5.7 -2.0
Pedro Strop 30 FA-elig 761.0 2.5 +0.6
Justin Grimm 26 arb 620.6 0.5 +1.3
Starlin Castro 25 arb 1510.6 6.9 -5.0
Chris Denorfia 34 FA-elig 1030.4 2.6 -1.2
Clayton Richard 31 arb 230.4 0.2 +1.2
Javier Báez 22 pre-arb 280.4 0.1 +1.3
Jason Motte 33 FA-elig 570.4 4.5 -3.2
Edwin Jackson↔ ATL 31 FA-elig 230.3 6.9 -5.9
David Ross 38 FA-elig 720.3 2.5 -1.7
Jorge Soler 23 pre-arb 1010.3 2.7 -1.9
Dan Haren↔ MIA 34 FA-elig 110.2 3.3 -2.7
Tommy La Stella 26 pre-arb 330.2 0.5 +0.1
Trevor Cahill↔ ATL 27 FA-elig 110.2 5.1 -4.5
Tsuyoshi Wada 34 pre-arb 80.2 4.0 -3.5
Dallas Beeler 26 pre-arb 30.1 0.5 -0.0
Donn Roach 25 – 10.1 0.0 +0.3
Neil Ramírez 26 pre-arb 190.1 0.5 -0.2
Gonzalez Germen↔ COL 27 – 60.1 0.0 +0.2
Fernando Rodney↔ SEA 38 FA-elig 140.1 1.4 -1.2
Phil Coke↔ TOR 32 FA-elig 160.1 2.0 -1.8
James Russell 29 arb 490.0 0.3 -0.2
Quintin Berry 30 pre-arb 80.0 0.1 +0.0
Austin Jackson↔ SEA 28 arb 290.0 1.6 -1.5
Carl Edwards Jr. 23 – 50.0 – –
Yoervis Medina↔ SEA 26 pre-arb 5-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Mike Baxter 30 pre-arb 34-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Matt Szczur 25 pre-arb 47-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Welington Castillo↔ ARI 28 arb 24-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Mike Olt↔ CHW 26 arb 6-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Taylor Teagarden 31 arb 8-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Junior Lake↔ BAL 25 – 21-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Tommy Hunter↔ BAL 28 FA-elig 19-0.2 1.5 -2.1
Rafael Soriano 35 – 6-0.2 4.1 -4.8
Jonathan Herrera 30 FA-elig 73-0.2 0.9 -1.6
Brian Schlitter 29 pre-arb 10-0.3 0.1 -0.9
Arismendy Alcántara 23 pre-arb 11-0.3 0.5 -1.5
Zac Rosscup 27 pre-arb 33-0.4 0.4 -1.6

Key additions (new vs 2014)

PlayerfWAR
Kris Bryant6.1
Jon Lester4.5
Miguel Montero3.1
Dexter Fowler3.0
Addison Russell2.6
Kyle Schwarber1.8

Key subtractions (gone from 2014)

Player2014 fWAR
Luis Valbuena3.2
Jeff Samardzija2.4
Emilio Bonifácio1.8
Carlos Villanueva1.1
Justin Ruggiano0.5
Darwin Barney0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2015 payroll
$127.3M
2016 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2015, 2015–2021. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2015; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Jon Lester318.075$20.0MFREE AGENT
Miguel Montero318.031$12.0MFREE AGENT
Jason Hammel327.153$9.0MFREE AGENT
Edwin Jackson319.070$6.9MFREE AGENT
Jason Motte336.027$4.5MFREE AGENT
Rafael Soriano3512.057$4.1MFREE AGENT
Dan Haren3410.154$3.3MFREE AGENT
Chris Denorfia347.041$2.6MFREE AGENT
David Ross3813.001$2.5MFREE AGENT
Phil Coke326.028$2.0MFREE AGENT
Fernando Rodney3811.137$1.4MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Dexter Fowler295.168$9.5MFREE AGENT
Starlin Castro254.150$6.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Wood284.004$5.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Cahill275.160$5.1MFREE AGENT
Jake Arrieta293.145$3.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Strop303.156$2.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Coghlan304.148$2.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Jackson285.000$1.6MFREE AGENT
Tommy Hunter285.090$1.5MFREE AGENT
Jonathan Herrera304.101$900kARB 3FREE AGENT
Welington Castillo283.009$458kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James Russell295.000$327kFREE AGENT
Clayton Richard315.070$222kFREE AGENT
Taylor Teagarden314.007$80kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (25)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Anthony Rizzo252.168$5.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tsuyoshi Wada341.145$4.0MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Soler230.033$2.7MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Héctor Rondón272.000$544kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Grimm261.170$532kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Neil Ramírez260.158$514kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy La Stella261.000$513kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Hendricks250.080$510kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Arismendy Alcántara230.082$510kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Szczur250.043$508kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dallas Beeler260.050$508kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kris Bryant230.000$471kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Addison Russell210.000$460kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zac Rosscup270.123$435kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Schwarber220.000$233kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yoervis Medina262.079$155kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Olt261.030$104kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Quintin Berry301.018$92kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Javier Báez220.055$92kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Junior Lake251.073$75kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Schlitter292.029$63kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Baxter302.145$42kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gonzalez Germen271.135$36kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Donn Roach251.066$19kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carl Edwards Jr.230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cubs 2015; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'CHC',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});