RRosternomics
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Cubs CHC

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President of baseball ops: Theo Epstein · GM: Jed Hoyer

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.54× league · TAB -0.1
-0.1TAB — talent above budget13th/30
+7.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)10th/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars8th/30
-3.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag7th/30
27%dead money %6th/30
0.583win %6th/30
39.5roster fWAR11th/30
-67surplus $M (value vs cost)28th/30
$202Mpayroll $M3rd/30

2018: made playoffs · 95–68. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFAlbert Almora Jr. 137GIan Happ 63GJason Heyward 25G
LFKyle Schwarber 120GIan Happ 59GBen Zobrist 43G
RFJason Heyward 118GBen Zobrist 61GIan Happ 24G
SSAddison Russell 129GJavier Báez 65GDavid Bote 2G
2BJavier Báez 104GDaniel Murphy 71GBen Zobrist 63G
3BKris Bryant 86GDavid Bote 56GTommy La Stella 26G
1BAnthony Rizzo 153GVictor Caratini 20GBen Zobrist 4G
STARTERSKyle Hendricks 3.1WARJon Lester 1.8WARCole Hamels 1.7WARMike Montgomery 1.4WARJose Quintana 1.2WAR
CWillson Contreras 133GVictor Caratini 37GTaylor Davis 3G
DHKyle Schwarber 6GDaniel Murphy 4GTommy La Stella 2G
BULLPEN★ Brandon Morrow 22svSteve Cishek 25hCarl Edwards Jr. 23hBrandon Kintzler 19hJustin Wilson 16hPedro Strop 9hJorge De La Rosa 9hJesse Chavez 7h
CWillson Contreras 133 · Victor Caratini 37 · Taylor Davis 3
1BAnthony Rizzo 153 · Victor Caratini 20 · Ben Zobrist 4
2BJavier Báez 104 · Daniel Murphy 71 · Ben Zobrist 63
3BKris Bryant 86 · David Bote 56 · Tommy La Stella 26
SSAddison Russell 129 · Javier Báez 65 · David Bote 2
LFKyle Schwarber 120 · Ian Happ 59 · Ben Zobrist 43
CFAlbert Almora Jr. 137 · Ian Happ 63 · Jason Heyward 25
RFJason Heyward 118 · Ben Zobrist 61 · Ian Happ 24
DHKyle Schwarber 6 · Daniel Murphy 4 · Tommy La Stella 2
SPKyle Hendricks 3.1 · Jon Lester 1.8 · Cole Hamels 1.7 · Mike Montgomery 1.4 · Jose Quintana 1.2
BP★ Brandon Morrow 22 · Steve Cishek 25 · Carl Edwards Jr. 23 · Brandon Kintzler 19 · Justin Wilson 16 · Pedro Strop 9 · Jorge De La Rosa 9 · Jesse Chavez 7

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2018 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Javier Báez 25 arb 1605.8 0.7 +19.2
Anthony Rizzo 28 FA-elig 1533.3 7.3 +3.9
Kyle Hendricks 28 arb 333.1 4.2 +6.4
Ben Zobrist 37 FA-elig 1392.9 16.5 -6.5
Kris Bryant 26 arb 1022.8 10.8 -1.3
Addison Russell 24 arb 1302.3 3.2 +4.7
Kyle Schwarber 25 arb 1372.2 0.6 +7.1
Albert Almora Jr. 24 pre-arb 1522.1 0.6 +6.6
Jon Lester 34 FA-elig 341.8 27.5 -21.5
Jason Heyward 28 FA-elig 1271.7 28.2 -22.3
Cole Hamels↔ TEX 34 FA-elig 121.7 8.8 -3.1
Mike Montgomery 28 arb 391.4 0.6 +4.0
Jose Quintana 29 FA-elig 321.2 8.8 -4.6
Carl Edwards Jr. 26 arb 581.1 0.6 +3.3
Jesse Chavez↔ TEX 34 FA-elig 321.1 0.6 +3.2
Willson Contreras 26 pre-arb 1381.0 0.6 +2.8
Ian Happ 23 pre-arb 1421.0 0.6 +2.8
Pedro Strop 33 FA-elig 600.9 5.8 -2.9
Steve Cishek 32 FA-elig 800.8 6.5 -3.7
David Bote 25 – 740.8 0.3 +2.4
Brandon Morrow 33 FA-elig 350.6 9.0 -6.8
Justin Wilson 30 FA-elig 710.6 4.2 -2.4
Jorge De La Rosa↔ ARI 37 FA-elig 170.5 0.6 +1.1
Alec Mills 26 pre-arb 70.5 0.1 +1.5
Daniel Murphy↔ WSN 33 FA-elig 350.3 6.7 -5.9
Anthony Bass 30 arb 160.2 0.2 +0.6
Yu Darvish 31 FA-elig 80.2 25.0 -24.4
James Norwood 24 – 110.1 0.1 +0.3
Tommy La Stella 29 arb 1230.1 0.9 -0.5
Eddie Butler↔ TEX 27 arb 80.1 0.2 +0.2
Mark Zagunis 25 pre-arb 50.1 0.1 +0.2
Terrance Gore 27 pre-arb 140.1 0.1 +0.2
Cory Mazzoni 28 pre-arb 80.1 0.0 +0.2
Jaime García↔ TOR 31 FA-elig 80.0 1.9 -1.8
Taylor Davis 28 pre-arb 50.0 0.1 -0.1
Mike Freeman 30 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Jen-Ho Tseng 23 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Rob Zastryzny 26 pre-arb 6-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Justin Hancock 27 – 10-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Efren Navarro 32 – 4-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Duane Underwood Jr. 23 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Allen Webster 28 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Randy Rosario 24 pre-arb 44-0.2 0.4 -1.0
Dillon Maples 26 pre-arb 9-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Chris Gimenez↔ MIN 35 – 12-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Luke Farrell 27 – 20-0.3 0.2 -1.1
Brandon Kintzler↔ WSN 33 FA-elig 25-0.3 1.8 -2.8
Victor Caratini 24 pre-arb 76-0.3 0.4 -1.5
Tyler Chatwood 28 FA-elig 25-0.4 12.5 -13.8
Brian Duensing 35 FA-elig 48-0.9 3.5 -6.5

Key additions (new vs 2017)

PlayerfWAR
Cole Hamels1.7
Jesse Chavez1.1
Steve Cishek0.8
David Bote0.8
Brandon Morrow0.6
Jorge De La Rosa0.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2017)

Player2017 fWAR
Jake Arrieta2.6
Jon Jay1.2
Wade Davis1.1
René Rivera0.7
Koji Uehara0.6
Miguel Montero0.6

Current & Historical Payroll

2018 payroll
$201.6M
2019 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2018, 2018–2024. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2018; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Jason Heyward288.000$28.2MFREE AGENT
Jon Lester3411.075$27.5MFREE AGENT
Yu Darvish316.000$25.0MFREE AGENT
Ben Zobrist3710.134$16.5MFREE AGENT
Tyler Chatwood286.039$12.5MFREE AGENT
Brandon Morrow339.086$9.0MFREE AGENT
Cole Hamels3411.143$8.8MFREE AGENT
Daniel Murphy338.109$6.7MFREE AGENT
Steve Cishek326.143$6.5MFREE AGENT
Pedro Strop336.156$5.8MFREE AGENT
Brian Duensing358.055$3.5MFREE AGENT
Jaime García319.047$1.9MFREE AGENT
Brandon Kintzler336.003$1.8MFREE AGENT
Jorge De La Rosa3714.000$638kFREE AGENT
Jesse Chavez347.108$569kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Jose Quintana295.133$8.8MFREE AGENT
Anthony Rizzo285.168$7.3MFREE AGENT
Justin Wilson305.035$4.2MFREE AGENT
Kyle Hendricks283.080$4.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy La Stella294.000$950kARB 3FREE AGENT
Carl Edwards Jr.263.000$594kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Bass303.159$182kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Gimenez355.163$55kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (27)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Kris Bryant262.171$10.8MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Addison Russell242.167$3.2MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Javier Báez252.089$657kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Montgomery282.089$611kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Schwarber252.086$604kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Willson Contreras261.108$604kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Albert Almora Jr.241.073$584kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ian Happ230.142$570kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Victor Caratini240.075$433kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy Rosario240.010$355kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Hancock27–$355k
David Bote250.000$293kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Farrell270.031$188kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eddie Butler271.141$152kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James Norwood240.000$132kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dillon Maples260.031$117kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Zagunis250.010$97kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Davis280.027$88kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Terrance Gore271.000$88kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alec Mills260.022$82kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rob Zastryzny260.079$62kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cory Mazzoni280.093$50kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Allen Webster280.157$35kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Freeman300.106$26kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Efren Navarro322.072$15kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jen-Ho Tseng230.020$3kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Duane Underwood Jr.230.000$3kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cubs 2018; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'CHC',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});