RRosternomics
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Cubs CHC

‹ ›

President of baseball ops: Theo Epstein · GM: Jed Hoyer

Overview

CONTEND → steady
expensive & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.55× league · TAB +0.5
+0.5TAB — talent above budget
+4.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)
1.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars11th/30
-2.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag7th/30
49%dead money %14th/30
0.567win %9th/30
14.8roster fWAR11th/30
-71surplus $M (value vs cost)24th/30
$183Mpayroll $M4th/30

2020: made playoffs · 34–26. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFIan Happ 51GAlbert Almora Jr. 28GBilly Hamilton 25G
LFKyle Schwarber 48GIan Happ 28GCameron Maybin 5G
RFJason Heyward 50GCameron Maybin 19GIan Happ 7G
SSJavier Báez 56GNico Hoerner 10G
2BNico Hoerner 37GJason Kipnis 36GIldemaro Vargas 16G
3BDavid Bote 33GKris Bryant 27GNico Hoerner 6G
1BAnthony Rizzo 57GVictor Caratini 3GHernán Pérez 2G
STARTERSYu Darvish 2.9WARKyle Hendricks 1.9WARTyler Chatwood 0.4WARJon Lester 0.2WARAlec Mills 0.1WAR
CWillson Contreras 41GVictor Caratini 22GJosh Phegley 4G
DHJosé A. Martínez 20GWillson Contreras 18GVictor Caratini 18G
BULLPEN★ Jeremy Jeffress 8svRowan Wick 5hKyle Ryan 4hRyan Tepera 3hCraig Kimbrel 3hDan Winkler 1hDuane Underwood Jr. 1hJosh Osich 1h
CWillson Contreras 41 · Victor Caratini 22 · Josh Phegley 4
1BAnthony Rizzo 57 · Victor Caratini 3 · Hernán Pérez 2
2BNico Hoerner 37 · Jason Kipnis 36 · Ildemaro Vargas 16
3BDavid Bote 33 · Kris Bryant 27 · Nico Hoerner 6
SSJavier Báez 56 · Nico Hoerner 10
LFKyle Schwarber 48 · Ian Happ 28 · Cameron Maybin 5
CFIan Happ 51 · Albert Almora Jr. 28 · Billy Hamilton 25
RFJason Heyward 50 · Cameron Maybin 19 · Ian Happ 7
DHJosé A. Martínez 20 · Willson Contreras 18 · Victor Caratini 18
SPYu Darvish 2.9 · Kyle Hendricks 1.9 · Tyler Chatwood 0.4 · Jon Lester 0.2 · Alec Mills 0.1
BP★ Jeremy Jeffress 8 · Rowan Wick 5 · Kyle Ryan 4 · Ryan Tepera 3 · Craig Kimbrel 3 · Dan Winkler 1 · Duane Underwood Jr. 1 · Josh Osich 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2020 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Yu Darvish 33 FA-elig 122.9 22.0 -0.5
Ian Happ 25 pre-arb 572.0 0.2 +14.2
Kyle Hendricks 30 FA-elig 121.9 12.0 +1.8
Willson Contreras 28 arb 571.7 4.5 +7.8
Jason Heyward 30 FA-elig 501.6 21.0 -9.1
Anthony Rizzo 30 FA-elig 581.0 16.5 -9.5
Javier Báez 27 FA-elig 590.7 10.0 -4.9
Adbert Alzolay 25 pre-arb 60.5 0.0 +3.9
Kyle Schwarber 27 arb 590.5 7.0 -3.1
Rowan Wick 27 pre-arb 190.5 0.2 +3.4
Nico Hoerner 23 pre-arb 480.5 0.2 +3.3
Tyler Chatwood 30 FA-elig 50.4 13.0 -9.9
Jason Kipnis 33 FA-elig 440.4 0.1 +2.7
Ryan Tepera 32 arb 210.3 0.9 +1.4
Victor Caratini 26 pre-arb 440.3 0.2 +1.8
Jon Lester 36 FA-elig 120.2 20.0 -18.4
Billy Hamilton↔ NYM 29 FA-elig 140.2 0.1 +1.5
Jeremy Jeffress 32 FA-elig 220.2 0.8 +0.5
Jose Quintana 31 FA-elig 40.2 10.5 -9.3
Cameron Maybin↔ DET 33 FA-elig 180.2 0.8 +0.3
David Bote 27 pre-arb 450.2 1.0 +0.2
Alec Mills 28 pre-arb 120.1 0.2 +0.8
Kris Bryant 28 arb 340.1 18.6 -17.6
Josh Osich↔ BOS 31 arb 40.1 0.2 +0.7
Craig Kimbrel 32 FA-elig 180.1 16.0 -15.3
Jason Adam 28 pre-arb 130.1 0.1 +0.6
Ildemaro Vargas↔ ARI 28 pre-arb 60.1 0.0 +0.5
Matt Dermody 29 pre-arb 10.0 0.0 +0.1
James Norwood 26 pre-arb 30.0 0.2 -0.2
Ian Miller 28 pre-arb 10.0 0.0 -0.0
Colin Rea 29 pre-arb 9-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Hernán Pérez 29 FA-elig 3-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Brailyn Marquez 21 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Duane Underwood Jr. 25 pre-arb 17-0.0 0.2 -0.5
Andrew Chafin↔ ARI 30 FA-elig 4-0.0 0.8 -1.1
Patrick Wisdom 28 pre-arb 2-0.0 0.0 -0.3
Dillon Maples 28 pre-arb 2-0.0 0.0 -0.4
Dan Winkler 30 arb 18-0.1 0.8 -1.4
Rex Brothers 32 arb 3-0.1 0.1 -0.8
Brad Wieck 28 pre-arb 1-0.1 0.2 -1.0
Steven Souza Jr. 31 FA-elig 11-0.1 1.0 -1.8
Tyson Miller 24 – 2-0.1 0.0 -1.0
Albert Almora Jr. 26 arb 28-0.1 1.6 -2.6
Josh Phegley 32 arb 11-0.2 0.2 -1.7
Casey Sadler↔ SEA 29 – 10-0.2 0.1 -1.6
Kyle Ryan 28 FA-elig 18-0.4 1.0 -3.6
José A. Martínez↔ TBR 31 – 10-0.5 – –

Key additions (new vs 2019)

PlayerfWAR
Jason Kipnis0.4
Ryan Tepera0.3
Billy Hamilton0.2
Jeremy Jeffress0.2
Cameron Maybin0.2
Josh Osich0.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2019)

Player2019 fWAR
Cole Hamels2.5
Nick Castellanos1.8
Addison Russell1.0
Brandon Kintzler0.9
Steve Cishek0.2
Robel García0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2020 payroll
$182.7M
2021 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2020, 2020–2026. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2020; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Yu Darvish338.000$22.0MFREE AGENT
Jason Heyward3010.000$21.0MFREE AGENT
Jon Lester3613.075$20.0MFREE AGENT
Anthony Rizzo307.168$16.5MFREE AGENT
Craig Kimbrel328.161$16.0MFREE AGENT
Tyler Chatwood308.039$13.0MFREE AGENT
Jose Quintana317.133$10.5MCLUBFREE AGENT
Steven Souza Jr.316.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Jeremy Jeffress326.090$850kFREE AGENT
Cameron Maybin3310.059$844kFREE AGENT
Jason Kipnis338.069$100kFREE AGENT
Billy Hamilton296.028$77kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Kris Bryant284.171$18.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Hendricks305.081$12.0MFREE AGENT
Javier Báez274.089$10.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Schwarber274.086$7.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Willson Contreras283.108$4.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Albert Almora Jr.263.073$1.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Tepera324.008$900kARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Chafin305.020$812kFREE AGENT
Dan Winkler304.063$750kARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Phegley325.087$210kFREE AGENT
Josh Osich313.119$200kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hernán Pérez295.056$100kFREE AGENT
Rex Brothers324.091$83kARB 3FREE AGENT
José A. Martínez314.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (21)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Kyle Ryan282.139$975kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Bote271.100$960kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ian Happ252.036$231kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Victor Caratini262.051$219kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Wieck280.125$212kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rowan Wick270.114$212kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alec Mills280.097$211kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nico Hoerner230.021$209kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Duane Underwood Jr.250.044$209kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James Norwood260.070$209kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Colin Rea292.140$134kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Adam280.147$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Sadler291.035$75kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adbert Alzolay250.019$37kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dillon Maples280.117$25kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ildemaro Vargas281.028$17kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Dermody290.100$9kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Patrick Wisdom280.044$6kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ian Miller280.029$6kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyson Miller240.000$6kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brailyn Marquez21–$3k

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cubs 2020; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'CHC',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});