RRosternomics
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Cubs CHC

‹ ›

President of baseball ops: Jed Hoyer · GM: Carter Hawkins

Overview

CONTEND → steady
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.29× league · TAB +7.2
+7.2TAB — talent above budget7th/30
+6.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)5th/30
10.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars2nd/30
-4.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag13th/30
20%dead money %5th/30
0.568win %6th/30
44.5roster fWAR6th/30
-24surplus $M (value vs cost)18th/30
$201Mpayroll $M7th/30

2025: made playoffs · 92–70. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFPete Crow-Armstrong 156GWilli Castro 6GKevin Alcántara 4G
LFIan Happ 146GWilli Castro 39GSeiya Suzuki 15G
RFKyle Tucker 115GWilli Castro 44GSeiya Suzuki 32G
SSDansby Swanson 159GNico Hoerner 8GNicky Lopez 3G
2BNico Hoerner 153GWilli Castro 48GJon Berti 13G
3BMatt Shaw 124GJon Berti 28GWilli Castro 23G
1BMichael Busch 151GCarlos Santana 102GJustin Turner 39G
STARTERSMatthew Boyd 3.4WARCade Horton 2.2WARColin Rea 1.9WARBen Brown 1.1WARJameson Taillon 1.1WAR
CCarson Kelly 105GReese McGuire 43GMiguel Amaya 27G
DHSeiya Suzuki 102GCarlos Santana 19GJustin Turner 19G
BULLPEN★ Daniel Palencia 22svBrad Keller 25hCaleb Thielbar 25hAndrew Kittredge 15hDrew Pomeranz 14hTaylor Rogers 10hPorter Hodge 8hRyan Pressly 7h
CCarson Kelly 105 · Reese McGuire 43 · Miguel Amaya 27
1BMichael Busch 151 · Carlos Santana 102 · Justin Turner 39
2BNico Hoerner 153 · Willi Castro 48 · Jon Berti 13
3BMatt Shaw 124 · Jon Berti 28 · Willi Castro 23
SSDansby Swanson 159 · Nico Hoerner 8 · Nicky Lopez 3
LFIan Happ 146 · Willi Castro 39 · Seiya Suzuki 15
CFPete Crow-Armstrong 156 · Willi Castro 6 · Kevin Alcántara 4
RFKyle Tucker 115 · Willi Castro 44 · Seiya Suzuki 32
DHSeiya Suzuki 102 · Carlos Santana 19 · Justin Turner 19
SPMatthew Boyd 3.4 · Cade Horton 2.2 · Colin Rea 1.9 · Ben Brown 1.1 · Jameson Taillon 1.1
BP★ Daniel Palencia 22 · Brad Keller 25 · Caleb Thielbar 25 · Andrew Kittredge 15 · Drew Pomeranz 14 · Taylor Rogers 10 · Porter Hodge 8 · Ryan Pressly 7

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2025 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Pete Crow-Armstrong 23 pre-arb 1575.4 0.8 +20.7
Nico Hoerner 28 arb 1564.8 11.5 +7.6
Kyle Tucker 28 arb 1364.5 16.5 +1.4
Michael Busch 27 pre-arb 1553.5 0.8 +13.1
Matthew Boyd 34 FA-elig 313.4 10.5 +3.2
Dansby Swanson 31 FA-elig 1593.4 28.0 -14.6
Ian Happ 30 FA-elig 1502.8 21.0 -9.8
Carson Kelly 30 FA-elig 1112.7 5.5 +5.1
Seiya Suzuki 30 arb 1512.6 19.0 -8.7
Cade Horton 23 – 232.2 0.6 +8.0
Colin Rea 34 arb 321.9 4.2 +3.1
Matt Shaw 23 – 1261.5 0.7 +5.2
Brad Keller 29 FA-elig 681.3 1.5 +3.6
Caleb Thielbar 38 FA-elig 671.1 2.8 +1.7
Jameson Taillon 33 FA-elig 231.1 18.0 -13.6
Ben Brown 25 pre-arb 251.1 0.7 +3.6
Daniel Palencia 25 pre-arb 541.0 0.7 +3.1
Shota Imanaga 31 pre-arb 250.9 13.5 -10.0
Miguel Amaya 26 pre-arb 280.9 0.8 +2.6
Drew Pomeranz 36 FA-elig 570.7 1.3 +1.4
Reese McGuire 30 arb 450.7 1.0 +1.7
Andrew Kittredge↔ BAL 35 FA-elig 230.6 2.6 -0.3
Javier Assad 27 pre-arb 80.3 0.8 +0.6
Ryan Brasier 37 FA-elig 280.3 3.0 -1.8
Moisés Ballesteros 21 – 200.3 0.1 +1.0
Jordan Wicks 25 pre-arb 80.1 0.1 +0.4
Kevin Alcántara 22 pre-arb 100.1 0.2 +0.1
Tom Cosgrove 29 pre-arb 20.1 0.2 +0.1
Justin Steele 29 arb 40.0 6.5 -6.4
Owen Caissie 22 – 120.0 0.1 +0.0
Michael Fulmer↔ BOS 32 FA-elig 20.0 0.0 +0.1
Brooks Kriske↔ MIN 31 – 4-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Gavin Hollowell 27 pre-arb 7-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Aaron Civale↔ CHW 30 arb 5-0.0 1.0 -1.1
Luke Little 24 pre-arb 2-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Michael Soroka↔ WSN 27 FA-elig 6-0.1 1.7 -1.9
Taylor Rogers↔ CIN 34 FA-elig 17-0.1 1.8 -2.0
Julian Merryweather 33 – 21-0.1 1.2 -1.6
Gage Workman↔ CHW 25 – 9-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Nicky Lopez↔ ANA 30 – 14-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Nate Pearson 28 – 11-0.2 1.4 -2.1
Vidal Bruján↔ ATL 27 – 36-0.2 0.3 -1.2
Carlos Santana↔ CLE 39 FA-elig 8-0.2 0.8 -1.7
Ethan Roberts 27 pre-arb 10-0.2 0.2 -1.2
Chris Flexen 30 – 21-0.3 0.8 -1.8
Eli Morgan 29 arb 7-0.3 0.9 -2.0
Justin Turner 40 FA-elig 80-0.3 4.5 -5.6
Génesis Cabrera↔ MIN 28 – 9-0.3 0.1 -1.2
Ryan Pressly 36 – 44-0.3 9.2 -10.6
Jon Berti 35 – 53-0.5 2.0 -3.9
Willi Castro↔ MIN 28 arb 34-0.5 1.2 -3.4
Porter Hodge 24 pre-arb 36-0.6 0.7 -3.2

Key additions (new vs 2024)

PlayerfWAR
Kyle Tucker4.5
Matthew Boyd3.4
Carson Kelly2.7
Cade Horton2.2
Colin Rea1.9
Matt Shaw1.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2024)

Player2024 fWAR
Cody Bellinger2.1
Mark Leiter Jr.1.3
Mike Tauchman1.0
Christian Bethancourt0.6
Kyle Hendricks0.4
Isaac Paredes0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2025 payroll
$201.1M
2026 guaranteed
$115.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2025, 2025–2031. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2025; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (17)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Dansby Swanson318.047$28.0M$28.0M$28.0M$27.0M$26.0MFREE AGENT
Ian Happ307.036$21.0M$19.0MFREE AGENT
Seiya Suzuki303.000$19.0M$19.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jameson Taillon338.110$18.0M$18.0MFREE AGENT
Matthew Boyd348.057$10.5M$17.0M$15.0MMUTUALFREE AGENT
Ryan Pressly3611.039$9.2MFREE AGENT
Carson Kelly306.161$5.5M$5.0M$7.5MMUTUALFREE AGENT
Justin Turner4014.045$4.5MFREE AGENT
Ryan Brasier377.094$3.0MFREE AGENT
Caleb Thielbar386.131$2.8MFREE AGENT
Andrew Kittredge356.070$2.6M$9.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Taylor Rogers348.145$1.8MFREE AGENT
Michael Soroka276.009$1.7MFREE AGENT
Brad Keller296.062$1.5MFREE AGENT
Drew Pomeranz3611.021$1.3MFREE AGENT
Carlos Santana3914.115$767kFREE AGENT
Michael Fulmer327.157$25kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Kyle Tucker285.079$16.5MFREE AGENT
Nico Hoerner285.014$11.5MFREE AGENT
Justin Steele293.143$6.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Colin Rea345.057$4.2MFREE AGENT
Jon Berti355.168$2.0MFREE AGENT
Nate Pearson284.005$1.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Willi Castro285.017$1.2MFREE AGENT
Julian Merryweather334.109$1.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Reese McGuire304.155$1.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Civale305.058$1.0MFREE AGENT
Eli Morgan293.091$950kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Flexen304.107$774kARB 3FREE AGENT
Nicky Lopez305.139$98kFREE AGENT
Génesis Cabrera285.011$78kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (21)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Shota Imanaga311.000$13.5MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Amaya261.130$782kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Busch271.045$780kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Javier Assad272.027$773kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pete Crow-Armstrong230.170$771kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Brown251.000$693kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Palencia250.159$682kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Porter Hodge240.125$676kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Shaw230.000$662kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cade Horton230.000$580kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vidal Bruján272.014$323kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ethan Roberts272.075$229kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Alcántara220.005$223kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Cosgrove291.085$163kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Owen Caissie220.000$139kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Wicks251.037$135kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Moisés Ballesteros210.000$123kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gage Workman25–$95k
Gavin Hollowell270.095$61kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brooks Kriske310.121$46kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Little241.020$16kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cubs 2025; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'CHC',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});