RRosternomics
𝕏

Reds CIN

‹ ›

GM: Jim Bowden

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.32× league · TAB +10.8
+10.8TAB — talent above budget3rd/28
+9.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)4th/28
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars8th/28
-2.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag3rd/28
23%dead money %18th/28
0.590win %4th/28
42.9roster fWAR3rd/28
-2surplus $M (value vs cost)12th/28
$44Mpayroll $M5th/28

1995: made playoffs · 85–59. Ranks are vs the 28 teams that season.

Roster

CFDarren Lewis 130GJerome Walton 50GThomas Howard 39G
LFRon Gant 117GThomas Howard 38GJerome Walton 36G
RFReggie Sanders 125GEric Anthony 20GThomas Howard 14G
SSBarry Larkin 130GJeff Branson 32GMariano Duncan 20G
2BBret Boone 138GMariano Duncan 31GJeff Branson 6G
3BJeff Branson 98GMark Lewis 72GLenny Harris 24G
1BHal Morris 99GBrian R. Hunter 23GLenny Harris 23G
STARTERSJohn Smiley 4.6WARPete Schourek 4.4WARDavid Wells 1.5WARJose Rijo 1.5WARMark Portugal 1.1WAR
CBenito Santiago 75GEddie Taubensee 65GDamon Berryhill 29G
BULLPEN★ Jeff Brantley 28svHector Carrasco 0hXavier Hernandez 0hChuck McElroy 0hMike Jackson 0hBrad Pennington 0hPete Smith 0hJohnny Ruffin 0h
CBenito Santiago 75 · Eddie Taubensee 65 · Damon Berryhill 29
1BHal Morris 99 · Brian R. Hunter 23 · Lenny Harris 23
2BBret Boone 138 · Mariano Duncan 31 · Jeff Branson 6
3BJeff Branson 98 · Mark Lewis 72 · Lenny Harris 24
SSBarry Larkin 130 · Jeff Branson 32 · Mariano Duncan 20
LFRon Gant 117 · Thomas Howard 38 · Jerome Walton 36
CFDarren Lewis 130 · Jerome Walton 50 · Thomas Howard 39
RFReggie Sanders 125 · Eric Anthony 20 · Thomas Howard 14
SPJohn Smiley 4.6 · Pete Schourek 4.4 · David Wells 1.5 · Jose Rijo 1.5 · Mark Portugal 1.1
BP★ Jeff Brantley 28 · Hector Carrasco 0 · Xavier Hernandez 0 · Chuck McElroy 0 · Mike Jackson 0 · Brad Pennington 0 · Pete Smith 0 · Johnny Ruffin 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1995 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Reggie Sanders 27 arb 1336.6 2.0 +4.4
Barry Larkin 31 FA-elig 1315.3 5.9 -0.8
John Smiley 30 FA-elig 284.6 5.0 -0.6
Pete Schourek 26 arb 294.4 0.8 +3.5
Ron Gant 30 FA-elig 1193.4 3.6 -0.3
Bret Boone 26 arb 1382.2 0.4 +1.7
Jeff Branson 28 arb 1222.2 0.3 +1.8
Jerome Walton 29 FA-elig 1021.9 0.5 +1.3
Benito Santiago 30 FA-elig 811.8 0.7 +1.1
Jose Rijo 30 FA-elig 141.5 5.8 -4.3
David Wells↔ DET 32 FA-elig 111.5 0.8 +0.6
Eddie Taubensee 26 arb 801.3 0.7 +0.5
Hal Morris 30 FA-elig 1011.2 3.3 -2.1
Mark Portugal↔ SFG 32 FA-elig 141.1 1.5 -0.5
Dave Burba↔ SFG 28 arb 151.1 0.2 +0.8
Hector Carrasco 25 pre-arb 640.9 0.1 +0.8
Thomas Howard 30 arb 1130.9 0.7 +0.1
Mark Lewis 25 arb 810.8 0.2 +0.6
Xavier Hernandez 29 FA-elig 590.8 1.5 -0.7
Darren Lewis↔ SFG 27 arb 580.5 0.8 -0.3
Eric Anthony 27 FA-elig 470.4 0.6 -0.2
Mike Jackson 30 FA-elig 400.3 1.2 -0.9
Mariano Duncan↔ PHI 32 FA-elig 290.3 0.2 +0.1
Brian R. Hunter 27 arb 400.2 0.7 -0.5
Jeff Brantley 31 FA-elig 560.2 1.8 -1.6
Eric Owens 24 pre-arb 20.1 0.1 +0.0
Craig Worthington↔ TEX 30 FA-elig 100.1 0.1 +0.0
C.J. Nitkowski↔ DET 22 pre-arb 90.1 0.0 +0.0
Tim Pugh 28 arb 290.0 0.2 -0.1
Johnny Ruffin 23 pre-arb 100.0 0.2 -0.2
John Courtright 25 – 10.0 – –
Scott Sullivan 24 – 30.0 – –
Steve Gibralter 22 – 40.0 – –
Frank Viola 35 FA-elig 3-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Mike Remlinger↔ NYM 29 arb 2-0.1 0.0 -0.1
Nigel Wilson 25 pre-arb 5-0.1 0.1 -0.2
Chuck McElroy 27 FA-elig 44-0.1 0.8 -0.9
Brad Pennington↔ BAL 26 pre-arb 6-0.1 0.1 -0.1
Matt Grott 27 – 2-0.1 – –
Willie Greene 23 arb 8-0.2 0.1 -0.3
Lenny Harris 30 FA-elig 101-0.2 0.5 -0.7
Deion Sanders↔ SFG 27 FA-elig 33-0.2 1.4 -1.6
Rick Reed 30 – 4-0.2 – –
John Roper↔ SFG 23 – 2-0.2 – –
Kevin Jarvis 25 pre-arb 19-0.3 0.1 -0.4
Damon Berryhill 31 FA-elig 34-0.4 0.6 -0.9
Pete Smith 29 – 11-0.6 – –

Key additions (new vs 1994)

PlayerfWAR
Ron Gant3.4
Benito Santiago1.8
David Wells1.5
Mark Portugal1.1
Dave Burba1.1
Mark Lewis0.8

Key subtractions (gone from 1994)

Player1994 fWAR
Kevin Mitchell4.2
Erik Hanson3.1
Tony Fernandez1.6
Jacob Brumfield1.1
Brian Dorsett0.6
Roberto Kelly0.5

Current & Historical Payroll

1995 payroll
$43.8M

What the front office was committed to as of 1995, 1995–2001. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (22)

PlayerAgeSvc1995199619971998199920002001
Barry Larkin319.000$5.9M$5.7M$5.3M$5.3M$5.3M$5.3M$9.0M
Jose Rijo3011.000$5.8MFREE AGENT
John Smiley309.000$5.0M$5.0M$2.9MFREE AGENT
Ron Gant308.000$3.6MFREE AGENT
Hal Morris307.000$3.3M$1.6M$3.1MFREE AGENT$450k$298k
Jeff Brantley317.000$1.8M$1.9M$2.8MFREE AGENT
Mark Portugal3210.000$1.5M$4.3MFREE AGENT
Xavier Hernandez296.000$1.5M$570kFREE AGENT
Deion Sanders276.000$1.4MFREE AGENT$1.2M
Mike Jackson309.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Chuck McElroy276.000$850k$628kFREE AGENT
David Wells328.000$831kFREE AGENT
Benito Santiago309.000$650kFREE AGENT$650k
Damon Berryhill318.000$580kFREE AGENT
Eric Anthony276.000$575k$610kFREE AGENT
Lenny Harris307.000$522k$550k$650k$440kFREE AGENT
Jerome Walton296.000$500kFREE AGENT
Frank Viola3513.000$190kFREE AGENT
Mariano Duncan3210.000$179kFREE AGENT
Craig Worthington307.000$57kFREE AGENT
Rick Reed307.000—FREE AGENT
Pete Smith298.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (13)

PlayerAgeSvc1995199619971998199920002001
Reggie Sanders274.000$2.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Darren Lewis275.000$813kFREE AGENT
Pete Schourek264.000$763kARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian R. Hunter274.000$740kARB 3FREE AGENT
Eddie Taubensee264.000$710kARB 3FREE AGENT
Thomas Howard305.000$675kFREE AGENT
Bret Boone263.000$400kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Branson283.000$300kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Lewis254.000$190kARB 3FREE AGENT
Dave Burba285.000$173kFREE AGENT
Tim Pugh283.000$170kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Willie Greene233.000$130kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Remlinger294.000$34kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (12)

PlayerAgeSvc1995199619971998199920002001
Johnny Ruffin232.000$195kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hector Carrasco251.000$150kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nigel Wilson252.000$125kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Jarvis251.000$115kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Owens240.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Pennington262.000$58kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
C.J. Nitkowski220.000$49kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Courtright25–—
Steve Gibralter220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Grott27–—
John Roper23–—
Scott Sullivan240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Reds 1995; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'CIN',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});