RRosternomics

Guardians CLE

GM: Phil Seghi

Overview

REBUILD → steady
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.64× league · TAB -13.8
-13.8TAB — talent above budget24th/26
-16.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)24th/26
2.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars26th/26
-7.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag26th/26
53%dead money %26th/26
0.370win %25th/26
14.8roster fWAR26th/26
-3surplus $M (value vs cost)18th/26
$6Mpayroll $M24th/26

Roster

CFBrett Butler 150GOtis Nixon 27GJoe Carter 4G
LFJoe Carter 122GOtis Nixon 53GBenny Ayala 20G
RFGeorge Vukovich 131GCarmen Castillo 51GJoe Carter 30G
SSJulio Franco 151GMike Fischlin 21GTony Bernazard 1G
2BTony Bernazard 147GMike Fischlin 32GJulio Franco 8G
3BBrook Jacoby 161GPat Tabler 4GMike Fischlin 3G
1BPat Tabler 92GMike Hargrove 85GJoe Carter 11G
STARTERSNeal Heaton 2.0WARDon Schulze 1.3WARVern Ruhle 1.0WARRoy Smith 0.6WARKeith Creel 0.4WAR
CJerry Willard 96GChris Bando 67GButch Benton 26G
DHAndre Thornton 121GPat Tabler 17GCarmen Castillo 7G
BULLPEN Rich Thompson 5svBryan Clark 0hDave Vonohlen 0hJeff Barkley 0hJose Roman 0hRick Behenna 0hErnie Camacho 0h
CJerry Willard 96 · Chris Bando 67 · Butch Benton 26
1BPat Tabler 92 · Mike Hargrove 85 · Joe Carter 11
2BTony Bernazard 147 · Mike Fischlin 32 · Julio Franco 8
3BBrook Jacoby 161 · Pat Tabler 4 · Mike Fischlin 3
SSJulio Franco 151 · Mike Fischlin 21 · Tony Bernazard 1
LFJoe Carter 122 · Otis Nixon 53 · Benny Ayala 20
CFBrett Butler 150 · Otis Nixon 27 · Joe Carter 4
RFGeorge Vukovich 131 · Carmen Castillo 51 · Joe Carter 30
DHAndre Thornton 121 · Pat Tabler 17 · Carmen Castillo 7
SPNeal Heaton 2.0 · Don Schulze 1.3 · Vern Ruhle 1.0 · Roy Smith 0.6 · Keith Creel 0.4
BP Rich Thompson 5 · Bryan Clark 0 · Dave Vonohlen 0 · Jeff Barkley 0 · Jose Roman 0 · Rick Behenna 0 · Ernie Camacho 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1985 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Bert Blyleven↔ MIN 34 FA-elig 234.2 0.4 +0.7
Brett Butler 28 arb 1523.8 0.4 +0.6
Neal Heaton 25 arb 362.0 0.2 +0.3
Brook Jacoby 25 arb 1611.6 0.1 +0.3
Julio Franco 26 arb 1601.6 0.5 -0.0
Tony Bernazard 28 FA-elig 1531.4 0.4 -0.0
Jerry Willard 25 1041.3
Don Schulze 22 191.3
Vern Ruhle 34 FA-elig 421.0 0.3 -0.0
Joe Carter 25 pre-arb 1430.9 0.1 +0.1
Mike Hargrove 35 FA-elig 1070.9 0.5 -0.2
Roy Smith 23 120.6
Carmen Castillo 27 670.6
Keith Creel 26 150.4
Jamie Easterly 32 FA-elig 500.3 0.3 -0.2
Jeff Barkley 25 210.3
Pat Tabler 27 arb 1170.2 0.3 -0.2
Ernie Camacho 30 arb 20.1 0.1 -0.1
Jim Wilson 24 40.0
Mel Hall 24 arb 23-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Dave Vonohlen 26 26-0.0
Curt Wardle↔ MIN 24 15-0.0
Rick Behenna 25 4-0.0
Mike Jeffcoat↔ SFG 25 9-0.1
Jerry Reed 29 33-0.2
Jose Roman 22 5-0.2
Andre Thornton 35 FA-elig 124-0.2 1.1 -1.1
Mike Fischlin 29 FA-elig 73-0.2 0.2 -0.2
Benny Ayala 34 FA-elig 46-0.3 0.3 -0.4
Tom Waddell 26 pre-arb 49-0.4 0.1 -0.2
Bryan Clark 28 31-0.4
Johnnie LeMaster↔ PIT 31 FA-elig 11-0.5 0.1 -0.2
Butch Benton 27 31-0.5
Otis Nixon 26 104-0.5
Ramon Romero 26 19-0.7
Rich Thompson 26 57-1.0
George Vukovich 29 arb 149-1.2 0.4 -0.7
Chris Bando 29 arb 73-1.5 0.2 -0.6

Key additions (new vs 1984)

PlayerfWAR
Bert Blyleven4.2
Brett Butler3.8
Neal Heaton2.0
Brook Jacoby1.6
Julio Franco1.6
Tony Bernazard1.4

Key subtractions (gone from 1984)

Player1984 fWAR

Current & Historical Payroll

1985 payroll
$6.2M

What the front office was committed to as of 1985, 1985–1991. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (9)

PlayerAgeSvc1985198619871988198919901991
Andre Thornton3512.000$1.1M$1.1M$1.1MFREE AGENT
Mike Hargrove3511.000$458kFREE AGENT
Bert Blyleven3415.000$404kFREE AGENT
Tony Bernazard286.000$400k$580k$356kFREE AGENT
Benny Ayala3411.000$303kFREE AGENT
Vern Ruhle3411.000$295kFREE AGENT
Jamie Easterly3211.000$265k$350k$370kFREE AGENT
Mike Fischlin298.000$190kFREE AGENT
Johnnie LeMaster3110.000$122kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc1985198619871988198919901991
Julio Franco263.000$455kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Butler284.000$425kARB 3FREE AGENT
George Vukovich295.000$375kFREE AGENT
Pat Tabler274.000$285kARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Bando294.000$225kARB 3FREE AGENT
Neal Heaton253.000$225kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mel Hall244.000$210kARB 3FREE AGENT
Brook Jacoby254.000$140kARB 3FREE AGENT
Ernie Camacho305.000$115kFREE AGENT
Carmen Castillo273.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jerry Reed294.000ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (18)

PlayerAgeSvc1985198619871988198919901991
Tom Waddell261.000$125kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Carter252.000$110kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Barkley25
Rick Behenna25
Butch Benton27
Bryan Clark28
Keith Creel26
Mike Jeffcoat252.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Otis Nixon262.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Roman221.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ramon Romero26
Don Schulze222.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roy Smith231.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rich Thompson260.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dave Vonohlen26
Curt Wardle24
Jerry Willard251.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Wilson24

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Guardians 1985; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3